This is an adapted excerpt from the May 2 episode of “Velshi.”
According to Gallup, 55% of Americans say their financial situation is getting worse. That’s higher than at any point in the last 25 years — higher than the 2008 financial crisis and higher than the pandemic, when Covid-19 literally shut down major parts of the global and American economy.
GDP, the broadest measure of total economic activity we have, did grow 2% over the first three months of the year. However, a large portion of that growth was driven by businesses investing in artificial intelligence. An increase in government spending, propelled by the war with Iran, also pushed up GDP.
Much like this war in Iran is Trump’s war of choice, this edge of financial crisis is the president’s economy of choice.
Despite the rising GDP, 70% of voters told Fox News they feel like the overall economy was getting worse for them and their families.
That’s because voters don’t vote based on the GDP. They vote based on the economy they experience every day, which is heavily influenced by factors such as inflation. In March, the annual rate of inflation increased nearly a percentage point from the previous month.
So it’s no surprise that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which measures how optimistic people feel about the economy, hit an all-time low in April.
This economic malaise did not emerge suddenly, nor can we be sure that those in charge are prepared to address it, or even want to. In fact, quite the opposite.
Much like this war in Iran is Donald Trump’s war of choice, this edge of financial crisis is the president’s economy of choice. The biggest headwinds facing consumers and businesses alike are the direct result of White House policy.
The Trump administration’s on-again-off-again implementation of tariffs prevented business owners from making long-term plans. And reciprocal tariffs from other countries hit American businesses in foreign markets.
Nearly 90% of the economic burden of tariffs fell on U.S. companies or consumers, according to a study from the New York Federal Reserve.
And of course, Trump’s choice to attack Iran at the end of February has rocked the economy more than any other policy decision. The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran theoretically opened the Strait of Hormuz, but trade coming through the strait has not gotten anywhere near pre-war levels.
The price of gas in the U.S. has hit a high for the year. It now costs an average of $4.46 per gallon to fill up your car, according to AAA. On the eve of the first strikes on Iran, it was $2.98.
The airline industry has been thrown into chaos over a shortage of jet fuel. And farmers are facing higher production costs because much of the world’s fertilizer is also shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
The more uncertainty companies face, the more squeezed consumers feel.
But the Trump administration’s priorities are elsewhere: their grand would-be ballroom, prosecuting perceived political enemies and rehashing the president’s old grievances.
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Even the man who will be entrusted with guiding the U.S. economy in the wake of the president’s own poor decisions cannot prioritize the truth over his loyalty to Trump.
During his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last month, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., asked Kevin Warsh, the president’s nominee to become the new chair of the Federal Reserve, a very simple question: Did Trump lose the 2020 election?
Warsh refused to answer that question, instead telling Warren that if he were to be confirmed, he would “keep politics” out of the Federal Reserve.
The likely next chair of the Federal Reserve prioritized loyalty to Trump over fidelity to the truth. That basic disconnect from reality spells danger for all of us — and for the economy.
A bungled economic recovery, should the war end, would be disastrous for Trump in the upcoming midterms.
Voters consider the economy the top issue this election year. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week, Americans say the economy, unemployment and jobs are the most important problems facing the country today.
And this is where it’s important to note: The price of gas is rising nationwide, but it’s up sharply, specifically in states important to Trump’s coalition. As The Wall Street Journal notes: “Prices at the pump in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa climbed faster than in any other states over the past week, according to AAA. Trump won all five in the 2024 election.”
A bungled economic recovery, should the war end, would be disastrous for Trump in the upcoming midterms.
Michigan and Ohio have competitive Senate races this November, and Iowa has a competitive race for governor.
But there’s more trouble for the president. The New York Times conducted interviews with 11 Trump voters on how they feel about the current state of things, and it does not paint a pretty picture for the president: Eight of the 11 say they regretted their vote for him.
It’s clear the American people, including some of the president’s own voters, are souring on Trump’s economy of choice.
Allison Detzel contributed.
Ali Velshi is the host of “Velshi,” which airs Saturdays and Sundays on MSNBC. He has been awarded the National Headliner Award for Business & Consumer Reporting for “How the Wheels Came Off,” a special on the near collapse of the American auto industry. His work on disabled workers and Chicago’s red-light camera scandal in 2016 earned him two News and Documentary Emmy Award nominations, adding to a nomination in 2010 for his terrorism coverage.
Armand Manoukian