This is the Jan. 15, 2026, edition of “The Tea, Spilled by Morning Joe” newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered straight to your inbox Monday through Friday.
Jim VandeHei is right. ICE is melting public support — and it is Republicans on Capitol Hill who will pay the political price.
For the first time since ICE was created, more Americans say they want Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s agency abolished than kept. An Economist/YouGov poll’s findings were stark: 46% want ICE gone, while 43% want it to survive.
What a reversal from a few years ago, when chants of “Abolish ICE” were dismissed as a left‑wing slogan out of touch with most voters’ sentiments.
Since Noem took charge, ICE’s ratings have plummeted — down roughly 30 points in public polling — and most Americans now describe the agency’s tactics as “too forceful.”
More damning for Republicans: Almost half of all Americans say the mere presence of ICE makes U.S. cities more dangerous.
What will the president’s next move be?
Perhaps he should send in the National Guard — to protect American cities from ICE’s violence.
As VandeHei said today on “Morning Joe,” Republicans will pay at the ballot box for their willful ignorance. They must know that voters hate ICE raids at schools, churches, and community centers.
If a picture paints a thousand words, then those images flooding out of Minneapolis are producing volumes of reasons why this ICE story is cutting through Americans’ consciousness like few others.
Renee Good’s killing was a tipping point.
A confidential memo from Blue Rose Research, the firm run by Obama‑era data guru David Shor and obtained by The New Republic, reportedly described 15 viral Minneapolis clips being shown to voters. Focus groups turned against Trump after watching the raw footage. Another poll found that over two-thirds of voters between 18 and 34 were incensed about ICE’s enforcement tactics and say the shooting was unjustified.
The gains made by Donald Trump among younger voters in 2024 have now been wiped out — in large part because of Noem’s ICE.
When voters watch a young mom gunned down in her Honda Pilot, and then hear the president calling her a domestic terrorist, White House claims of “backing the blue” fall on deaf ears — especially after Trump pardoned scores of Jan. 6 cop-beaters.
For the first time in the president’s political career, the most powerful images shaping the immigration debate are not of migrant caravans or border crossings. They are images of Noem’s henchmen beating residents in their suburban neighborhoods, grabbing schoolteachers from their kindergarten classes, and shooting a mom through her side window at close range.
Will Republicans finally realize the ice beneath them is cracking, or will their fealty to Donald Trump destroy their majority this fall?
I’m guessing Jim VandeHei’s got it right. Expect a Democratic majority next year.
“Your poll numbers are going down, down, down. Not just today, consistently. If this keeps happening, your chances of losing the House aren’t 60 or 70%. They’re 80 or 90%.”
— Axios CEO Jim VandeHei on the political impact of President Donald Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement crackdown
Source: Reuters/Ipsos survey of 1,217 adults nationwide on Jan. 12-13, 2026
BACK TO SCHOOL
New data released this week show that college enrollment has risen for a third straight year.
More than 16 million undergrads were enrolled in American colleges and universities during the fall of 2025 — the highest total in a decade.
The growth is being driven largely by community colleges, which continue to draw in students seeking lower-cost and more flexible routes into higher education.
Private universities, by contrast, posted a slight decline, a shift that analysts link in part to a drop in international enrollment — driven largely by Trump administration policies.
A CONVERSATION WITH ELORA MUKHERJEE
Know your rights.
Specifically, know your rights under the U.S. Constitution. With more Americans finding themselves approached by ICE agents, knowing the law is critical.
Mika sat down with the director of the Immigrants’ Rights Clinic at Columbia Law School, Elora Mukherjee. MB: Let’s start with the basics. What are the rights of people — citizens or noncitizens — when approached by ICE, especially if they’re in a car or at home? EM: Everyone on U.S. soil, regardless of immigration or citizenship status, has rights under the Constitution. First, the First Amendment protects the right to engage in peaceful protest. Second, everyone has the right to due process, though what that looks like can vary depending on a person’s citizenship or documentation status. But no one should be detained or deported simply for engaging in peaceful protest or expressing views the government dislikes. And third, people have the right to remain silent. No one is required to say where they were born or what country they’re from. MB: You said all people have rights. The administration claims it’s targeting “the worst of the worst.” Do even those suspected of a crime have a right to due process, and what does that mean in practice? EM: The First Amendment and due process protections apply to everyone on U.S. soil, citizen or not. The Supreme Court has affirmed this for nearly a century. People cannot be detained, arrested, or deported without due process simply for protesting or expressing dissent. Right now, the Trump administration is pushing the limits of executive power and, in many cases, violating the constitutional rights of peaceful protesters. You may recall that the Transportation Department kicked off last year’s holiday travel season with a civility campaign to bring back “courtesy and class to air travel” — in short, to get passengers to dress better on planes. Well, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal, the DOT’s push has fallen on deaf ears. “It seems like equating ‘air rage’ to attire is making clothing the scapegoat for an overly expensive, stressful and corporate-oriented flying experience,” one passenger told the paper. Still, you’ve got to admit that Desi is looking fetching in that London Fog trench coat! Graffiti, flyers, and street art on a corner of New York City’s Chelsea neighborhood. In the coming weeks, actor and comedian Sean Hayes will join us to discuss his new off-Broadway show, “The Unknown,” and actress and writer Jeanette McCurdy will join us to talk about her new novel, “Half His Age.” Have a question for them? Ask here, and we may feature your question on the show.
Former Rep. Joe Scarborough, R-Fla., is co-host of MS NOW's "Morning Joe" alongside Mika Brzezinski — a show that Time magazine calls "revolutionary." In addition to his career in television, Joe is a two-time New York Times best-selling author. His most recent book is "The Right Path: From Ike to Reagan, How Republicans Once Mastered Politics — and Can Again." Recommended
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