4 key takeaways from the Tennessee special election

Republican Matt Van Epps won Tuesday’s special election for Tennessee’s 7th congressional district. But his 9-point victory is too close for comfort: Donald Trump carried the seat by 22 points in 2024, suggesting a swing to Democrats nationally that could be enough to sweep away GOP control of the House come 2026.

Both parties poured millions into what should have been a sleepy special election to replace GOP Rep. Mark Green. But with Republicans clinging to a narrow House majority and Democrats riding momentum from November victories in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City, the contest became a high-stakes preview of next year’s midterm battles.

Since the October primary, Republicans and Democrats flooded the district with outside spending and campaign swings. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Trump lined up behind Van Epps, an Army veteran and former member of Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee’s Cabinet. His opponent, Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn, drew support from former Vice Presidents Kamala Harris and Al Gore and high-profile progressives, including Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Jasmine Crockett of Texas.

Polling ahead of Tuesday gave a clear edge to Van Epps, but suggested margins far narrower than the district’s Republican makeup would suggest. And now that we have results, Democratic strategists are pointing to the outcome as evidence of momentum heading into 2026.

Here are the big takeaways from the race for Tennessee’s 7th congressional district  — and what they mean for each party ahead of the midterms.

A single-digit loss is still a big gain for Democrats

Democrats have consistently outperformed the party’s 2024 presidential election results in special elections this year, and Tuesday’s results continued that trend. 

In 2024, Green carried the seat by 21 points while Trump won by 22. On Tuesday, Van Epps won by 9 points. Some Democratic strategists (and neutral observers, for that matter) see it as an indication of a nascent blue wave in the 2026 midterms.

It’s also a sign the party’s base has retained energy coming off major wins in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City last month. Mobilizing voters to turn out in an off-year election is historically challenging, but Behn and her allies managed to energize their base at the ballot box. That was enough to significantly narrow the margins in a district designed to be safely Republican.

That the GOP’s margin of victory narrowed by about 12 points from 2024 — despite millions of dollars spent in the special by outside Republican allies, including President Donald Trump’s super PAC — is likely to be read as a glaring warning sign for the Republican Party nationally.

Affordability remains central — and there’s a path for Republicans on the issue

Tuesday’s results offered yet another example of the centrality of affordability in American politics right now.

In the closing weeks of the campaign, as Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia won big while focusing their campaigns on affordability, Behn tried to replicate that magic. In ads, she hammered Republicans for Trump’s tariffs and the cost of living. “Angry about high grocery prices?” she asked in one recent ad. “Worried about healthcare costs? Feeling burned by tariffs? Then Dec. 2 is your day to shake up Washington.”

But where Republicans in Virginia and New Jersey sometimes struggled to message on the topic, Van Epps refused to cede the issue to Behn — even as he ran as a  Trump-era Republican fully in line with the president. In ads, he blamed the high cost of living on “Bidenflation” and “the far left’s outrageous spending,” running spots that criticized Democrats in Washington for “reckless spending.”  

“Together, we’ll bring down the cost of living,” Van Epps said in his victory speech on Tuesday night. “I’m tired of too many Republicans ceding affordability to the Democrats. … Simply put, Democrats took your money and now they’re fighting Republicans trying to give it back. We Republicans shouldn’t shy away from that fight.”

The narrow margin suggests neither party has a monopoly on the issue — but both recognize it as the battleground that will define 2026.

AOC may not be the political bogeyman she once was

Behn, a community organizer-turned-state legislator, was previously labeled the “AOC of Tennessee” on account of her progressive politics — a moniker that Behn embraced, even campaigning with Ocasio-Cortez in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Republicans, meanwhile, argued that Behn was simply too far to the left to represent the district. Super PACs backing Van Epps painted Behn as a “radical” in attack ads, and pointed to her past support of defunding the police, a position she declined to distance herself from. Trump echoed the idea that Behn was simply too far to the left, taking to a Truth Social post to allege that Behn “hates Christianity,” “wants trangender for everybody” and “openly Disdains country music.” 

That’s instructive: The salient thing was ultimately Behn’s own politics, not her association with AOC. The conservative tactic of seeking to tie Democrats running in purple and red districts to far-left members of their party is nothing new. But Behn’s single-digit loss to Van Epps indicates it could be losing its efficacy, even in the heart of Trump country. 

Redistricting is a big gamble for Republicans

Amid a nationwide redistricting arms race ahead of the midterms, Tennessee’s heavily gerrymandered 7th congressional district offers a look at the potential pitfalls of redrawing congressional maps to pad a Republican House majority. 

Following the 2020 census, the Tennessee state legislature redrew its congressional seats, splitting voters in a blue district that encompassed much of Nashville into three Republican districts. The move was aimed at eliminating the Democratic seat from Congress at the cost of creating slightly tighter seats for the state’s redistricted Republican incumbents. 

When you eliminate a Democratic district, you necessarily dilute heavily red seats, which have to absorb those voters. And Tuesday offered a warning: In a wave election, that could backfire big time, given a Democratic candidate who’s the right fit for the district.