ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — Diplomatic efforts to end the U.S. war with Iran that once showed tentative promise are now facing mounting distrust, conflicting goals and a lack of credible intermediaries, according to multiple sources familiar with the talks.
Pakistan has emerged as an unlikely would-be peace broker, stepping into a vacuum left by more traditional mediators. But its efforts have yet to gain traction and the Trump administration’s diplomatic strategy remains unclear.
On Saturday, President Donald Trump reissued an ultimatum for Iran to unilaterally agree to U.S. terms and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping by Monday. “Time is running out – 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them,” Trump said in a social media post.
Three Persian Gulf officials told MS NOW that attempts by Pakistan to broker a ceasefire have largely amounted to indirect exchanges rather than substantive negotiations, with no senior envoys shuttling between capitals or any formal framework for talks taking shape.
Iran has publicly welcomed Pakistan’s role, with Foreign Minister Sayed Abbas Araghchi saying on Saturday that Tehran is “deeply grateful” for its efforts and has “never refused” engagement. But privately, doubts remain over whether Iran is willing — or able — to participate meaningfully, citing security concerns and the absence of guarantees that the U.S. and Israel will not attack it again.
There is also skepticism among some Persian Gulf states. Officials in the region question whether Pakistan can act as a neutral broker, given its decades-old alliance with Saudi Arabia and its limited track record in high-stakes mediation.
At the same time, the two Persian Gulf countries traditionally seen as key intermediaries — Oman and Qatar — are either sidelined or reluctant.
Oman, which previously mediated two rounds of talks between Washington and Tehran, remains willing to re-engage. But its role has been complicated by a breakdown in trust with Washington.
Those earlier rounds of talks both ended with Israel and the U.S. launching surprise air strikes on Iran. Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, publicly criticised the latest strikes, saying he was “dismayed” that “active and serious negotiations have yet again been undermined.” That criticism is believed to have alienated senior Trump administration officials.
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Qatar, meanwhile, has not stepped forward to fill the gap. While often serving as a go-to mediator in past conflicts in the region, there are no clear signs it is actively pursuing a role in the current war. Regional officials say recent high-level engagements involving Doha have focused more on coordination and regional stability than mediation itself.
The United Arab Emirates has also ruled itself out as a potential broker, despite its history of working closely with U.S. diplomats in conflict zones including Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. Instead, the UAE has emerged as one of the most vocal critics of Iran during the current conflict.
The shift comes as the UAE faces an intensifying security threat from Tehran. Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting the country have surged, reaching approximately 60 per day last week and 79 on Saturday, the highest since March 8, according to figures released by Emirati authorities.
Against this backdrop, the UAE has little appetite to play mediator. One senior official says the priority has shifted to navigating the security and geopolitical fallout of a prolonged conflict, rather than facilitating dialogue.
More broadly, Persian Gulf states appear divided over what an eventual outcome should look like. Some regional actors are focused on de-escalation, while others are seen as more willing to tolerate continued U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran, to weaken it militarily.
Taken together, the result is a fragmented diplomatic landscape, where no single actor appears to have both the credibility and the broad backing needed to bring the parties to the table. For now, the talks are not officially dead — but they are, by most accounts, at a standstill.
David Rohde
David Rohde is the senior national security reporter for MS NOW. Previously he was the senior executive editor for national security and law for NBC News.