Less than a month ago, the GOP’s nationwide crusade to redraw congressional maps was beginning to backfire.
Democrats were fresh off a narrow victory in Virginia, where voters had signed off on a new map that would significantly reshape congressional districts in the commonwealth and potentially hand the party as many as four additional seats. Democrats had battled back from President Donald Trump’s push for red states to redraw their maps — in order to maximize the number of Republican districts — and essentially fought the mid-decade redistricting war to a draw.
And then the draw turned into a dramatic Democratic loss.
In the wake of Virginia voters’ decision, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis pushed a new congressional map targeting several Democratic-held districts. Then a Supreme Court ruling opened the door for Republican-led states in the south to dismantle a series of Democratic districts with large minority populations before the midterms.
And then, just for good measure, the Virginia Supreme Court struck down the new map there.
“I was optimistic to start with, but I mean, with redistricting going on, it looks like we’ll pick up anywhere from eight to 12 seats,” Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tenn., told MS NOW.
With Republicans currently holding narrow control of the House, that could very well be the difference in November. Still, Democrats believe they maintain the upper hand.
“We might not have the same margin that we otherwise would have without these rigged maps,” Rep. James Walkinshaw, D-Va., told MS NOW, “but we’re very confident that we’ll pick up at least the three seats we need to win the House.”
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York was even more defiant on Wednesday.
“We are going to win the House of Representatives,” he told reporters.
Democrats last flipped the House during Trump’s first term, netting 41 seats in the 2018 midterms. That wave brought them a comfortable majority — before Republicans cut away at it in 2020 and then won back the House in 2022.
Since that strong Democratic performance in 2018, however, majority control of the House has been relatively narrow for both parties.
Democrats have been touting the potential of a blue wave in the fall that could help deliver them the House and Senate. It certainly looked like a strong possibility just a few weeks ago.
But Democrats say there’s a risk for the GOP in believing they’ve insulated themselves from a blue wave, particularly as Republicans lean in on Trump and his increasingly polarizing messaging.
While a surge like 2018 may be more difficult in today’s harsh partisan environment — there are fewer competitive seats and partisan gerrymanders have gotten better with more voter data — there have been encouraging signs for Democrats that momentum is on their side.
High gas prices, economic and inflation concerns, and the president’s own bombastic approach have already figured prominently in the midterm messaging for Democrats. The redistricting standoff that’s upended the map time and again this cycle is now also in the mix, with Democrats hoping backlash serves to energize voters.
“I think that the voters are going to revolt,” Rep. Deborah Ross, D-N.C., told MS NOW.
Still, the president is less than two years removed from winning every presidential battleground state in the country — a victory that sent Democrats into an existential spiral about the future of the party.
Even so, Republicans admit that — even now that they have come out ahead in the redistricting showdown — there are plenty of factors, including the president’s Iran war, that hold sway over how things go in November.
“A lot depends on the president being able to achieve some very important goals that we support,” said Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., who announced he would retire at the end of this term after Democrats redrew his seat and turned it into a blue district.
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If Republicans are counting on Trump to deliver for them in November, they may be walking into an electoral buzzsaw.
The president’s unpopularity, coupled with a GOP redistricting effort that has seemingly increased their grip over the majority but at the risk of overextending their reach, could set up Republicans for a difficult election night.
“They can’t throw those voters in the ocean. They’re still there to vote,” said Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., whose district may be redrawn in an effort to flip it red.
Beyond just the political make up of the Congress, the Supreme Court’s decision is likely also to impact the diversity of the Congress, with several states kicking off new efforts to redraw districts currently represented by Black members.
Rep. Troy Carter — a Black Democrat from Louisiana — insisted that even if their numbers are diminished, the Congressional Black Caucus will still be a “force to be reckoned with.”
“We’re not going to roll over,” he said. “There was a time when there were none that sat in this building. There’s a time when there was one, there was two, there was seven, there were 12, and we still showed up as the conscience of the Congress.”
The larger redistricting feud has also led members of both parties to rationalize what works for their side but villainize what may be helping their opponents.
That shift has been especially pronounced for Democrats, who have pushed for escalation in the redistricting arms race after years of anti-gerrymandering rhetoric.
When MS NOW asked Walkinshaw if there was anything he wished Democrats had tactically done differently on gerrymandering, he suggested that blue states should have rethought the move in recent years to voluntarily cede redistricting power to independent commissions — seen as good-government, anti-gerrymandering tools.
“There was a thought at that time that if blue states took the lead on doing that, red states would join,” he said. “Obviously, that was flawed.”
But Republicans have also had to practice dissonance as well. Many GOP lawmakers have shied away or plead ignorance about the push to overhaul districts this cycle. Recent primaries show Trump still has enormous sway and influence within the Republican Party, and that he can essentially make or break lawmakers with one post online.
The GOP embrace of gerrymandering comes as some Republicans have expressed a discomfort with the push to redraw districts in the middle of the decade.
Redistricting is supposed to occur after the decennial Census. But cracks started to form on that norm before the last presidential election, with Trump essentially shattering the norm after he won back the White House.
This year’s rampant redistricting looks like it will hardly be an aberration.
The United States’ increasingly partisan politics is driving politicians toward even harder lines on gerrymandering, with neither side believing the other party intends to step back from the trend.
“Anyone who says this fight started this year is just simply not being honest,” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y. said.
And Jeffries made it clear Wednesday that the events of the past few weeks are not the last word on redistricting this decade.
“The big fight will be what happens in between 2026 and 2028,” he said.
Hunter Woodall covers politics for MS NOW. He’s reported on politics and presidential campaigns for The Associated Press and CBS News and reported on Congress for The Minnesota Star Tribune.
Kevin Frey is a congressional reporter for MS NOW.