John Bartman knows the challenges of being a farmer. His family has been tilling Illinois soil since James K. Polk sat in the Oval Office, weathering droughts, trade disputes, market crashes and a Civil War in the process.
But now, with Donald Trump behind the Resolute Desk, fertilizer shipments have been halted through the Strait of Hormuz — a choke point for roughly one-third of the world’s fertilizer supply — and the resulting price spike is causing Bartman’s profits to disappear.
After years of turmoil for American farmers, “it’s just another straw that breaks the camel’s back,” Bartman said.
New data from the American Farm Bureau Federation, an agricultural lobbying firm, warns that Bartman isn’t alone: Some 70% of American farmers may be unable to afford all the fertilizer their fields require.
It’s the latest in a series of economic headwinds that have slammed the U.S. agricultural industry over the past decade, causing farm bankruptcies to jump 46% from 2024 to 2025. The AFBF reported that this year 58% of its members said their financial situation had worsened since early 2025, while just 6% reported improvement.
Map: Carson Elm-Picard / MS NOW; Source: American Farm Bureau Federation
“Many farms were broadly in a situation of net negative margins, where they’re losing money, and this just compounds the problem,” Shawn Arita, the associate director of North Dakota State University’s Agricultural Risk Policy Center, said of the fertilizer shortage. “It was a very difficult situation before March 1, and now it’s certainly a lot more challenging.”
The shortage has caused the price of fertilizer jump from around $400 per ton in January to more than $600 per ton this week, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The impact of those high prices won’t be felt evenly across the U.S. — only 19% of Southern farmers preordered fertilizer before the price increased, compared with 30% in the Northeast, 31% in the West and 67% in the Midwest, according to the AFBF.
Chart: Carson Elm-Picard / MS NOW; Source: American Farm Bureau Federation
Trump administration officials, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, have sought to downplay the severity of the inflation.
Rollins told Fox Business that “America has plenty of fertilizer” for its farmers, and Vance acknowledged the shortage but dismissed the conflict behind the inflation as “a little blip in the Middle East” during a speech on Tuesday. That same day, Rubio echoed Rollins’ claim, saying that it was only Iran’s fertilizer, not the United States’, that was stranded in the Persian Gulf.
While the U.S. is a major exporter of fertilizer globally, it still produces only about 9% of the global supply and remains a net importer of the good, according to the USDA, meaning that supply chain disruptions on the other side of the world still affect domestic market prices.
That could be why Rollins is now considering reviving a Biden-era initiative that pledged $900 million to funding the construction of new fertilizer plants in the U.S. That initiative, the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program, was eliminated during Trump’s second term “due to Presidential Executive Orders,” according to the USDA website.
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Even if the initiative was resuscitated or the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, farmers would be paying inflated prices through 2027, even into 2028, Arita said. Rep. Don Bacon., R-Neb., a member of the House Agriculture Committee, told MS NOW that the Trump administration should “re-examine their tariff policies” to alleviate the strain on farmers, but did not comment on the effects of the Iran War.
Chart: Carson Elm-Picard / MS NOW; Source: American Farm Bureau Federation
Another committee member, Rep. April McClain Delaney, D-Md., said the high fertilizer prices are “reflective of a much larger crisis” caused by the Trump administration — one that has already hit her constituents.
“Farmers in my district are facing tough choices about whether they can afford to plant at all,” said Delaney, who represents Maryland’s largely rural 6th Congressional District. “This administration’s reckless actions and the flawed farm bill are failing our farmers.”
The House Agriculture Committee’s Republican leadership, Chairman Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania and Vice Chairman Austin Scott of Georgia, did not respond to requests for comment on this story.
Fertilizer inflation isn’t the only thing pushing up costs for farmers; diesel prices in the U.S. have jumped from about $3.80 at the start of the war to more than $5.60 as of May 4 , according to USDA data. That in turn has made it more expensive for all farmers to do business — even small growers like Leah Dannar-Garcia, an organic farmer in Wichita, Kansas, who doesn’t use synthetic fertilizer.
“Farms have been just hanging on with the soybean debacle last year,” Dannar-Garcia said, referring to the Trump administration’s $20 billion bailout of Argentina, which spurred China to reduce its U.S. agricultural imports. “It’s had a devastating effect.”
As a soybean farmer, Bartman was particularly affected by that decision. Arita said the situation now is having an “asymmetric impact” on American agriculturalists, as farmers are paying more to grow and sell their crops, but aren’t necessarily able to raise prices on consumers to match. That in turn leads to lost profit and endangered livelihoods.
“They’re running the American farmer into the ground and out of business,” Bartman said of the Trump administration. “The only thing that is cheaper today than three years ago in the United States is a bushel of soybeans.”
Adam Hudacek is a desk associate for MS NOW covering national politics in Washington, D.C.