A U.S. military effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force would likely require U.S. ground troops in a dangerous, costly operation that could drag on for years, five military and shipping experts told MS NOW.
Reopening the strait is widely seen by experts as the single best step the United States could take to bring down spiraling global oil costs. But ship captains said they have not heard a clear plan from U.S. military officials as the closure sends prices higher.
Some former military officials and maritime experts are confident that American ships, aircraft and drones alone will be enough to protect tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and bordered by Iran to the north.
Others say U.S. ground troops would need to seize control of miles of Iranian coastline and secure it until the conflict ends.
“You’ll need to create a buffer zone on the ground if it’s determined that air strikes do not sufficiently decrease Iran’s ability to fire onto traffic transiting the straits,” said Retired Army Gen. James A. “Spider” Marks, a military analyst. “That’s why Marines are en route. It’s a contingency force.”
Jonathan Schroden, the chief research scientist at the Center for Naval Analysis, said the level of security the U.S. is trying to create will determine whether ground troops are needed.
“It depends on what you mean by ‘secure the strait,’” Schroden told MS NOW. “If that means zero or minimal attacks on shipping through the strait, then putting troops ashore seems a likely requirement. If that involves some tolerance for continued but limited attacks, then the U.S. may be able to accomplish that via some additional time striking targets associated with Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones and lay mines, plus the use of Navy escorts.” Some experts said the cost of insuring tankers — valued at hundreds of millions of dollars — would soar during such an operation. They said the U.S. government may need to guarantee to cover the cost of damage for any tanker that is attacked to persuade ship owners to send them through the strait. A maritime expert in contact with ship captains waiting to cross the strait said they have not heard any specific plans from the U.S. military, as global oil prices continue to soar three weeks into the conflict. “They just want security,” Sal Mercogliano, a maritime historian and professor at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy and Campbell University, told MS NOW. “They are not hearing from the military.”
David Rohde
David Rohde is the senior national security reporter for MS NOW. Previously he was the senior executive editor for national security and law for NBC News. Recommended
