Pennsylvania can make or break a politician’s dreams.
In recent presidential elections, it has swung narrowly between Republicans and Democrats, proving to be a major part in sending Donald Trump to the White House.
In theory that should make life difficult for Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro as he runs for a second term this November. For the GOP, it’s a dual opportunity: win back a crucial office in a battleground state and halt the momentum of a potential presidential contender.
Instead, Shapiro appears to be headed for a much smoother fall than many of his peers in states around the country.
A whirlwind of reasons are at behind it all, from Shapiro’s political talents — and midterm momentum on the left — to problems within the Republican Party.
“There’s no question it’s an uphill battle,” said GOP Rep. Dan Meuser, who passed on a gubernatorial run of his own. To him, “Shapiro is good on his feet. He’s been around, he’s a transactional guy.”
A former Pennsylvania attorney general, Shapiro was elected governor in 2022 in a 15-point rout over Trump-endorsed state Sen. Doug Mastriano, who was deeply involved with president’s falsehood filled crusade trying to overturn his loss in the 2020 election.
Democrats say he’s come away from his time so far with a record that has something to offer to moderate and progressives.
In office, Shapiro had to contend with a divided General Assembly, the Interstate 95 collapse and political violence against him. But Democrats say he’s come away from his time so far with a record that has something to offer to moderate and progressive Democrats as well as independent voters.
“People aren’t viewing the Democratic Party very favorably now, but Josh Shapiro has had an amazing ability to convey to the swing voters, ‘I’m not your stereotypical Democrat,’ while at the same time keeping the base happy,” said Mike Mikus, a Pittsburgh-based Democratic strategist.
This fall, Shapiro may benefit from the political advantage that comes with the opposing party holding the presidency while there’s anti-incumbent sentiment toward the White House. After Tuesday’s primary, he’s set to face Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity in November, given that both are unopposed in their respective parties.
Republicans have high praise for Garrity, who got more votes than any other statewide candidate outside of Trump when she won another term as treasurer in the 2024 election. But without Trump on the ballot to drive turnout, she’ll have to push back on her own against Shapiro’s approval ratings and the formidable power of Democratic incumbency.
“He’s got a history in government, and he’s delivered, so I think people respect that,” Democratic Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon said about Shapiro, who was a state representative before serving as attorney general.
Going back to the 1970s, an incumbent Pennsylvania governor has only lost a re-election effort once: in 2014, when Republican Tom Corbett was defeated. With that backdrop, some Pennsylvania Republicans on Capitol Hill intermixed criticism of Shapiro with a more flattering tone as well, the kind of faint kindness across party lines that’s become more scarce in the Trump era of politics.
“I think Josh Shapiro is probably one of the most professional guys when it comes to how do you win elections,” GOP Rep. Mike Kelly said. “I think he knows how to do things. I think Stacy, she’s there because she’s really concerned by spending and things.”
How Shapiro performs this fall has wide-ranging implications not just for Pennsylvania but also for Congress.
How Shapiro performs this fall, and whether the race for governor is a blowout or a close contest, has wide-ranging implications not just for Pennsylvania but also for Congress. State legislative races are on the ballot in Pennsylvania, where Republicans hold the Senate while Democrats control the House. Meanwhile, back in Washington, Democrats are coveting four Republican-held seats in the Keystone State as they hope to take back control of Congress in November.
A strong performance by Shapiro leading the race could create coattails for those candidates and set him up for a 2028 presidential run, which is fodder for critics in his own state.
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“Shapiro is running for president and has been running for president since I was in the state legislature with him,” GOP Rep. Scott Perry said, adding that to him Shapiro is “just climbing the ladder.”
Serving as governor is one of the hardest jobs in American politics, and doing so in a political battleground state as perennially competitive as Pennsylvania makes it even more so. While Shapiro’s more moderate record has openings that could prove to be liabilities in a Democratic primary on the national stage, his allies emphasize what he’s shown in some of the fraught moments during his time as governor.
“It is staggering that we had that catastrophic fire and collapse of I-95 in a really busy stretch of Philadelphia, and of course a very busy stretch for I-95 for the nation, and to see the sort of can-do attitude and the spirit with which he did it,” said Democratic Rep. Madeleine Dean, who had succeeded Shapiro back in the state House. “Bringing in partners, figuring out how do we smooth this out, putting up a camera so that people could transparently see 24/7 what was going on, and rebuilding it in 12 days — that is sort of a can-do spirit that has guided him all the time.”
But the same issues that could prove to be a liability to future political ambitions also offer fodder for the GOP effort to try to defeat Shapiro this fall.
“The case against Josh Shapiro is deep and it is damning, and decorated veteran and accomplished State Treasurer Stacy Garrity is the best candidate to both prosecute Josh Shapiro and paint the positive vision for what Pennsylvania can be if we have strong leadership in Harrisburg,” a spokesman for Garrity’s campaign said in a statement, pointing to national rankings about the state.
There’s already been a clear sense among the nation’s Democratic governors and allies that they’d like to see one of their own be the party’s standard-bearer in the 2028 presidential election.
The nation is in a moment of distrust in government and Washington, said Pennsylvania’s Democratic Lt. Gov. Austin Davis. Governors, he said, are outsiders who have had to deliver for their respective states.
And in a place like Pennsylvania, where voters may side with a Republican in one election and a Democrat the next, that kind of approach could make a difference with the national party still in the depths of soul-searching about its direction.
“We’ve consistently shown up in communities all across Pennsylvania,” Davis said about himself and the governor. “And sometimes [in] some of those communities, it’s not easy to be a Democrat.”
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Hunter Woodall covers politics for MS NOW. He’s reported on politics and presidential campaigns for The Associated Press and CBS News and reported on Congress for The Minnesota Star Tribune.