In Tuesday’s primary elections in Nebraska, the candidate Democrats hope will unseat Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts this November isn’t on the ballot. In fact, he isn’t even a Democrat.
State Democrats think their best bet in the race is independent Dan Osborn, a veteran and mechanic who ran an unexpectedly close race against Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, losing by just 6 points in a state President Donald Trump won by roughly 20.
In March, the Nebraska Democratic Party announced that it was making a “deliberate, principled decision” not to field a candidate in the race in order to boost Osborn’s chances.
“We believe Dan Osborn — a veteran, a mechanic, a Nebraskan, and an independent voice — represents the best opportunity to defeat Pete Ricketts and deliver real results for working families,” the party said.
Complicating that plan is William Forbes, a Trump-supporting anti-abortion pastor who filed to run as a Democrat. In its statement backing Osborn, the party said that Forbes was a “non-serious” candidate “running to trick voters.”
Over time, the party loses the muscle memory of what it takes to win big races.
In this politically polarized era, Democrats in red states and Republicans in blue states can find it all but impossible to win statewide races, which starts a death spiral for their party’s future chances. It starts with a string of losses, which makes it harder to recruit candidates, raise money and field volunteers. Over time, the party loses the muscle memory of what it takes to win big races.
Nebraska is a classic case. Republicans have held the governorship and a majority in the state legislature since 1999 and the state hasn’t elected a Democrat as senator since 2006, which is why the party decided Osborn might be its best bet.
It’s not the only state with an independent candidate this year.
In South Dakota, Brian Bengs is running for Senate as an independent after losing as a Democrat to Majority Leader John Thune in 2022. He’s already outraised presumptive Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion, reporting the highest single-quarter fundraising total for a non-Republican Senate candidate in the state since 2008. In Idaho, former Democratic state lawmaker Todd Achilles, now running as an independent, has outraised all the candidates in a crowded Democratic primary field. (In both cases, the Republican incumbents are still much farther ahead in fundraising.)
But Democrats aren’t always willing to step aside.
Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar has emerged as an independent challenger to that state’s likely Republican nominee, U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, following Sen. Steve Daines’ last-minute retirement announcement in March. But while Nebraska Democrats have decided it may be in their best interest to stay on the sidelines, Montana Democrats have a far more recent track record of winning statewide, and they’re not ready to throw in the towel just yet.
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“The mission of the Montana Democratic Party is to support candidates who run as Democrats. Full stop,” Montana Democratic Party Chair Shannon O’Brien said in March, as she supported the party’s likely nominee, Reilly Neill. “We are unified in our values and focused on winning races regardless of who chooses to run outside the party.”
The rise in independent candidates has come as voters have become disenchanted with both parties.
Roughly one-quarter of Americans have a negative view of both the Democratic and Republican parties, AP-NORC data shows, and only 1 in 10 feel positively about both parties. According to Gallup, a record-high 45% of U.S. adults identified as political independents in 2025, the highest level since 2011.
Still, independent candidates face an uphill battle, since they can’t rely on the party’s established network of major donors and campaign volunteers.
The only independents in the Senate right now are Maine Sen. Angus King and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, both of whom caucus with Democrats. Osborn, by contrast, has said that he won’t caucus with either party if elected, which would complicate both parties’ attempts to win the Senate majority.
But for Nebraska Democrats, that’s a problem for later. For now, the party said that it’s supporting Osborn in order to “end the one-party Republican rule” in the state.
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Elizabeth Maline is a senior assignment editor for MS NOW.