Republicans would not usually need to worry about a special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.
Stretching from the suburbs of Nashville to rural areas on the border of Alabama, the ruby-red district went for Donald Trump by 22 points in the last election and helped launch the career of Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn.
But the retirement of incumbent Rep. Mark Green has led to the state’s first House special election in four decades today, and the president appears nervous.
On Sunday, Trump claimed on social media without evidence that Democratic state Sen. Aftyn Behn “hates Christianity, will take away your guns, wants Open Borders, Transgender for everybody, men in women’s sports, and openly disdains Country music.”
And Monday night, on the eve of the election, Trump spoke virtually at multiple campaign events for Republican nominee Matt Van Epps, a ratcheting up of his involvement in a race that historically is not competitive.
To be clear, Van Epps is the favorite to win, but Democrats think Behn may be able to cut the margin to perhaps 10 points.
That would be yet another sign of a Democratic wave.
After the party’s successes in November’s elections, that would be yet another sign of a Democratic wave coming in the congressional midterms.
Although it’s historically unlikely, a 12-point swing nationally next year would mean Republicans would lose every competitive district and even some safe seats, giving Democrats control of the House by a comfortable margin.
Behn’s surprising strength is one of several indicators of a coming Democratic rebound.
In November, the party won competitive governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey, Trump’s approval continues to drop, and 23 House Republicans have announced they will retire, compared with 16 Democrats. Trump’s tariffs, his tax cuts and spending law and his immigration crackdown all poll poorly, meaning GOP candidates will have a tough sell, and Republicans in Congress do not yet have a plan to extend expiring health insurance subsidies.
In a surprising turn, MAGA ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., announced she will retire at the start of the year after predicting Republicans will lose control of the House.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy suggested that Greene’s retirement is a warning sign.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy suggested that Greene’s retirement is a warning sign for the GOP.
“She’s almost like a canary in the coal mine,” McCarthy told Fox News after Greene’s announcement. “This is something inside Congress, they’d better wake up, because they are going to get a lot of people retiring, and they’ve got to focus.”
Both parties are treating the special election as a major test, devoting significant resources to it.
The House Majority PAC, which concentrates on electing Democrats, announced last month $1 million in TV and digital ads to support Behn’s bid. Additionally, two Democratic groups supporting Behn have poured more than $1 million into the race, according to Federal Election Commission (or FEC) filings. That includes almost $300,000 in mailers boosting Jonathan Thorp, the independent candidate in the race, in a bid to split the conservative coalition Van Epps has worked to build.
Meanwhile, the Trump-aligned and Elon Musk-funded political action committee MAGA Inc. has spent almost $1.3 million in the race, according to FEC filings, the bulk of which has gone toward opposition ads against Behn. That’s on top of the $15,000 the PAC spent on a phone-banking effort in support of Van Epps last month, the first spending by the committee on any race in this term.
And in a sign of Trump’s specific focus on this race, the president held a tele-rally for Van Epps the day after early voting began in the race. His involvement prior to the event had been limited to a Truth Social endorsement days before the Republican primary.
“I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps,” Trump wrote in an X post urging voters to back the Republican candidate, his first post on the platform in more than a month.
In the meantime, Democratic voters in Nashville got a visit from former Vice President Kamala Harris, who aimed to galvanize the party’s base as the unlikely but possible chance of an upset grows. Notably, Harris did not appear onstage with the candidate she urged the crowd to support.
Polling places begin closing at 7 p.m. in Tennessee. Election watchers will likely call the race for the Republican not long afterward. But both parties will pore over the results for days.
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Nnamdi Egwuonwu is a reporter for MS NOW.