Mar. 1, 2026, 6:00 AM EST

The central question for Democrats in the Texas Senate primary on Tuesday is not about ideology or even experience — it’s about strategy.

The race between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico is being watched nationally as a test case for the big-picture question of how Democrats can win in the Donald Trump era.

Both candidates are skilled messengers. Both are young, vocal Trump fighters who understand how to get attention in today’s media environment. Both seem authentically themselves in front of the camera and behind the scenes.

As one Texas Democrat put it to me this week: They are both “Texas progressives” — with the emphasis on Texas.

But they represent sharply different answers to the same question: What’s the most effective way to defeat a Republican Party still defined by Trump?

For Crockett, the answer is to fight fire with fire — match Trump’s energy.

For Crockett, the answer is to fight fire with fire — match Trump’s energy, as Democrats have increasingly argued since November. It’s more in line with how politics is actually being fought right now. She sees that as the best way to galvanize people who lean Democratic but often don’t show up to vote.

Crockett’s allies, who spoke with me on background in order to be candid, say that because Trump is such an existential threat in the minds of so many Democrats, including those in Texas, the question of style is actually really about substance.

One longtime Crockett campaign aide put it to me this way: “Who do you want in this moment when we’re living in such an unprecedented time and everything is on the line? … There’s a battle-tested fighter, and then there’s another person who you could roll the dice and have to take a gamble on.”

Talarico, a former school teacher and seminarian who still carries himself with the calm and disciplined manner of those two occupations, is interested in changing the temperature entirely, according to his advisers and allies, who also spoke on background to be candid.

As one of his senior advisers said to me this week, “Politics doesn’t have to feel like professional wrestling all the time. And I think even some hard-core Dems at their core know that, like watching people on television punch people we don’t like is a blast. But we know that it’s not good for us.”

For Talarico, winning over independents and moderate Republicans is the only path to end a 30-year losing streak.

Talarico’s argument starts from that premise. He has always said the party needs to defeat Trumpism, but mirroring the intensity that girds it isn’t the way to turn Texas blue. For him, winning over independents and moderate Republicans is the only path for the party to break a 30-year losing streak in the Lone Star State.

Talarico talks openly about electability in the general election — something that rankles some members of his own party for all the obvious reasons, but could make heads turn for primary voters who become political pundits all their own, working to game out who will win in November.

Making that even more complicated is the fact that Democrats don’t yet know who their nominee will be facing, and may not know for months. The Republican primary — a three-way race between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt — is likely to end up in a runoff at the end of May.

Talarico’s theory is that Democrats won’t flip Texas by running up margins in Austin and Houston alone. They need crossover appeal. They need voters who don’t identify as progressive and frankly think of it as a dirty word. Talarico is betting that voters are exhausted by permanent political warfare and are open to a different tone.

If Democrats in Texas are united behind one of those theories, they haven’t made it clear to pollsters.

A February survey from the University of Texas found Crockett leading 56–44 among likely Democratic primary voters. But that came after a January poll from Emerson College that showed Talarico ahead 47–38.

In this case, the polls are consistent in their inconsistency. The race is fluid. The electorate is split but energized. In a ruby-red state, Democratic ballots have far outpaced Republicans statewide, a sign that the party is ready to fight.

One party leader in the state, who also spoke off the record to be candid, told me the electorate has been primed for a fight by tactics the Democratic minority has used in the statehouse, such as leaving the state to prevent a quorum and delay a contentious bill.

The question they’re facing is what is the best way to fight.

“Neither [style] is riskier than the other right now because we’ve got nothing left to lose,” the party leader told me. But a merging of the styles might need to happen. “It’ll need to be a little bit of both and maybe Talarico goes too far in the ‘tame’ direction. Maybe Jasmine goes a little too far in the ‘fight’ direction. They both could gain a little bit from learning from each other.”

The primary outcome will send a signal far beyond state lines.

Nationwide, Democrats are still debating what actually worked — and what didn’t — in 2024. An official autopsy will not be released, leaving a vacuum where everyone picks their own explanation and decides on a strategy from there.

For a decade, the party has been defined by Trump and his style of politics, leaving all sides dug in.

If base mobilization with unapologetic confrontation can’t make Texas competitive, skeptics will ask where it can.

If persuasion politics with a tonal recalibration falls short in a Democratic primary electorate hungry for urgency, centrists will have their own reckoning.

Because beneath the Texas showdown lies a bigger question the party will wrestle with for the next few months of primaries: In a political system remade by Trump, do Democrats win by beating him at his own game — or by refusing to play it?

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