The emerging new deal between the U.S. and Iran, first reported by Axios, to extend a fragile ceasefire for 60 days and begin negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program is a victory for Iran in four ways — and a win for the United States in only one.
“Overall this is a victory for Iran, which endured over a month of bombing, closed the strait, kept it closed and only agreed to reopen it via negotiated settlement with the United States,” Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the Eurasia Group, told MS NOW. “None of the stated war goals of the Trump administration — replacing the regime, re-creating the success in Venezuela, obtaining a sweeping nuclear deal or even forcing opened the strait — were obtained.”
In a major win for the U.S, the proposed memorandum of understanding, which is still pending approval from President Donald Trump, says ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz will be “unrestricted” and no fees or tolls will be charged. For weeks, Iran has insisted that it retain control of the strait with Oman and be able to charge ships fees.
Iran would also be required to remove all mines from the strait within 30 days, U.S. officials told MS NOW. And the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping through the strait. The U.S. would also issue some sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell oil.
In a triumph for Iran, there is no agreement in the emerging deal regarding Iran’s nuclear program or its stockpile of enriched uranium. The memorandum, according to Axios, contains “an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon.” That is not new. Iranian leaders have said for years that they will not pursue a nuclear weapon.
Under the agreement, which MS NOW has not independently reviewed, negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program will take place during the new 60-day ceasefire, which was one of Iran’s demands.
Second, the memorandum contains no agreement on what will happen to Iran’s 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium or its enrichment program. It states that those issues will be the first discussed in the 60-days of talks, the U.S. official said.
Axios reported that the two sides will discuss how to “dispose” of Iran’s enriched uranium, which experts have said could mean allowing Iran to down-blend the uranium to a lower enrichment level and keep it inside Iran.
Iran offered to do that before the war began, according to negotiators. Trump instead attacked Iran and has repeatedly demanded that the Islamic Republic hand over its enriched uranium to the U.S.
Third, there is no mention of limiting Iran’s missile stockpile, which U.S. officials hoped to destroy during the war. The latest U.S. intelligence assessments found that 70% of Iran’s missile stockpile survived the war. Iran will still be able to threaten Israel and Gulf countries with its missiles.
Fourth, there is no mention of Iran’s proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. One of the goals when Trump announced the war was to ensure that Iran’s “proxies can no longer destabilize the region.”
Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at Sciences Po in Paris and an associate at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, noted that Iran does not appear to get relief from sanctions in the MOU, a concession it has demanded. But she agreed that Iran got the best of the talks.
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“The nuclear side of it looks like it’s just pushing the same issues down the line,” she told MS NOW.
Brew, the Eurasia group analyst, said that if the reported details of the agreement hold true, Iran has gotten the best of this round of negotiations.
“If the details of the deal conform with what is in the Axios report, it would suggest the U.S. is essentially getting a restoration of the status quo before the war,” he said. “Iran allows the strait to reopen, consents to further negotiations on its nuclear program, but does not make any concessions up front.”
The draft memorandum also has a regional component that would include an end to the continued fighting between Israeli and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, Iranian officials and a diplomat involved in the talks told The New York Times. Both sides have repeatedly violated a cease-fire agreement reached between Lebanese government and Israeli officials in talks in Washington overseen by the State Department.
U.S and Iranian officials also have different interpretations of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian official said the U.S. would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports “within 30 days” and the Strait of Hormuz would be opened for the duration of the talks. The United States has placed no time frame on it, a U.S. official said.
Iranian officials are also continuing to argue that Iran and Oman have the right to decide whether to impose a fee on ships that transit the strait, The New York Times reported. Trump has repeatedly said that no fees can be imposed because the strait is an international waterway.
An Iranian official and one diplomat involved in the talks said the memorandum also includes a reference to a reconstruction program for Iran, something Iranian officials have requested, according to The New York Times. The program would not be created until a final agreement is reached after the 60-day round of talks and it is not clear how much money it would involve.
Lastly, the memorandum is also expected to allow for the eventual release of an estimated $24 billion in Iranian funds that are frozen overseas. Trump has repeatedly ridiculed former President Barack Obama for releasing $1.5 billion in Iranian frozen assets as part of the 2015 deal the U.S., Russia, China and several European nations struck with Iran. Trump critics have argued that the Obama-era deal, which Trump withdrew from in his first term, achieved more than Trump’s current war with Iran.
David Rohde is the senior national security reporter for MS NOW and a two-time winner of the Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting. Previously he was the senior executive editor for national security and law for NBC News.
Julia Jester covers politics for MS NOW and is based in Washington, D.C.