Democrats have long dreamed of a blue Texas. And they believe Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s defeat of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in Tuesday’s Republican Senate primary could turn that dream into reality.
In Paxton, Democrats see a Republican standard-bearer whose scandals and hard-right views may finally give their nominee a path to victory. And they’re eager to lean into the contrast with the Democratic candidate, state Rep. James Talarico, a seminarian and former teacher who presents as temperamentally moderate.
“Ken Paxton has a criminal record. I have a legislative record,” Talarico said in a message sent to supporters shortly after Paxton was declared victorious on Tuesday night. It was followed by a campaign ad from Team Talarico featuring a series of news clips highlighting the Republican’s alleged improprieties, which include an indictment for securities fraud and an impeachment from the GOP-controlled Texas House stemming from accusations of public corruption and abuse of office. The securities fraud felony charges were dropped after Paxton pleaded not guilty and agreed to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution and in 2024. He has denied the corruption allegations.
It’s an encapsulation of an issue Democrats are trying to seize nationwide: fighting corruption.
“The Talarico campaign has done a fantastic job coming out of the gate explaining exactly why Ken Paxton is just simply unfit to serve,” said Mari Manoogian, a Democratic strategist and executive director of The Next 50, a political action committee focused on electing young Democrats. “This is sort of part of a broader conversation that’s being had — not just in Texas, but by Democrats generally — about how the current administration and their cronies in the House and in the Senate are furthering the corrupt agenda of the Trump administration.”
House Democrats announced plans Tuesday to launch a new caucus aimed at fighting corruption in government amid Trump-era ethics concerns. Paxton’s win gives the party a way of personalizing that national message for persuadable voters in Texas.
Talarico is also seeking to appeal to politically homeless Cornyn voters, hoping to bring them into his tent with an appeal to bipartisanship.
“We don’t agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service,” Talarico wrote on X, thanking Cornyn for his service to Texas after his runoff loss. “To Senator Cornyn’s supporters: you have a place in our campaign.”
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Talarico has taken a markedly different approach from other Democrats in the midterms, largely avoiding attacks on Trump himself and instead centering his focus on topics like the cost of living. That could help him make inroads with voters who have been hit hard by skyrocketing gas prices since the U.S. launched its war with Iran.
That issue may have helped transform Democrats’ prospects in the Lone Star State.
In 2018, Rep. Beto O’Rourke, an El Paso Democrat, raised eyebrows when his campaign nearly unseated Sen. Ted Cruz, losing by just 3 percentage points. And while there are similarities between O’Rourke’s campaign and Talarico’s — the major national profile, the energized Democratic electorate, the massive hauls of campaign donations — there is at least one very important difference.
“The day Beto lost, gas was $2.10 per gallon. Today, it’s $4.46,” said Chuck Rocha, an East Texas native and Democratic strategist. “People in Texas love big trucks, they use a lot of gasoline, they are sick and tired of endless wars.”
Talarico’s approach appears to have some traction. Early head-to-head polling shows him with a narrow lead over Paxton. His grassroots fundraising has given him a $27 million war chest, according to Federal Election Commission filings. But Paxton, who is coming off a brutal intraparty battle against a long-term incumbent, won’t make it easy.
“Texas is a tough fight,” Manoogian said. “Democrats haven’t held, you know, these statewide offices in quite some time, but in terms of the best matchup that positions Democrats with the best opportunity to win in November, there’s little doubt that Paxton is the best shot here for Democrats to win this seat.”
Sydney Carruth is a breaking news reporter covering national politics and policy for MS NOW. You can send her tips from a non-work device on Signal at SydneyCarruth.46 or follow her work on X and Bluesky.