The Trump administration’s failure to anticipate that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow channel, 21 miles wide at its narrowest, through which 20% of the world’s oil supply moves — is contributing to the largest oil supply disruption in history, according to former Navy officers and maritime experts.
Iran’s willingness to close the strait, in conjunction with an insufficient deployment of ships to the region, has resulted in the U.S. Navy’s reluctance to escort oil tankers through the strategic waterway for the past two weeks.
It’s a scenario that experts have warned of for decades, and one the administration ignored, said Sal Mercogliano, a maritime historian and professor at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy and Campbell University.
“I’m kind of floored by the fact that the administration failed to plan or have any guidance in place for what to do with the commercial shipping,” said Mercogliano, who noted that multiple ships have requested Navy escorts. “It just appears that the U.S. does not have sufficient resources.”
“It’s just a lack of understanding fueled by Hegseth and Trump not having an understanding of how the military works.”
Gen. Mark Hertling
The U.S. Navy has failed for years to prioritize its stock of ships to counter mines, despite decades of warnings that Iran could try to close the strait, said Jonathan Schroden, the chief research scientist at the Center for Naval Analysis.
The Navy recently decommissioned four aging mine sweepers based in the Persian Gulf in Bahrain, Schroden said, and these arrived back in the U.S. about a week ago. Three newer ships replaced them, but he said the Navy has underinvested in building more ships and systems to counter mines.
“Mine countermeasure routinely found itself at the bottom of the priority list,” he said. “The amount of capacity the Navy has was never much and dwindled over time.”
The Trump White House’s rush to war doesn’t appear to have allowed time to move adequate resources into the region, according to Gen. Mark Hertling, a former general and MS NOW national security contributor. “It’s just a lack of understanding,” he said, “fueled by [Defense Secretary Pete] Hegseth and Trump not having an understanding of how the military works.”
On March 3, three days after the strikes began, Donald Trump announced that “the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible.” But when captains of oil tankers contacted the U.S. Navy escorts, they were told no ships were available.
“The destroyers and cruisers have to be nearby to protect the carriers,” said Mercogliano.
He noted that NATO allies have more demining ships than the U.S. Navy does, but the Trump administration has also failed to gain the support from NATO countries and some other regional allies for the U.S. and Israeli offensive.
“We would normally be able to rely on our NATO allies to help,” Mercogliano said. As Iran has fired on several ships over the past two weeks, ship owners have refused to transit the strait. As traffic gradually halted, oil prices began to rise. On Tuesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on X that a Navy ship had escorted a tanker through the strait. After the White House said that was false, Wright deleted the post, blaming it on a staffer. Wright said Thursday in an interview on CNBC that Navy escorts would begin “relatively soon.” “We’re not ready,” he said. “All of our military assets are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities.” Asked if escorts would begin by April, he replied, it was “quite likely” but declined to give an exact date. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that U.S. naval ships would escort tankers, also without offering a timeline for how quickly that could happen. Hegseth made similar assurances the next day, also with no clarity on timing. Mercogliano expressed surprise at the administration’s lack of urgency. If the strait remains closed, a cascading effect will accelerate, he warned, which could lead to drilling and refining shutting down as well. “I don’t think the admin understands the global impact of this,” he said. “What we have done is put a clamp on the femoral artery” of the world’s oil supply.
David Rohde
David Rohde is the senior national security reporter for MS NOW. Previously he was the senior executive editor for national security and law for NBC News. Recommended
