The Senate GOP primary runoff in Texas is suddenly shaping up to be a wipeout, according to prediction markets, as Republican voters prepare to choose Tuesday who will face Democrat James Talarico in November.
In what was once a toss-up Senate primary race, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn battled for an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Paxton won that fight, and the shift in markets quickly followed suit.
As of Sunday afternoon, Paxton led incumbent John Cornyn by nearly 90% on the online prediction market Kalshi. And on Polymarket, Paxton had a 96% chance of winning Tuesday’s election.
Just days earlier, on May 18, Kalshi had Paxton with a 63.7% chance of winning the nomination and Cornyn at 37.2%.
Trump’s endorsement came on May 19. And by the next morning, the market had completely split. Paxton surged to 90.1%, with Cornyn at 10.3%. Texas Republican primary runoff polling also showed Paxton surging ahead of Cornyn in the days immediately following Trump’s endorsement.
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The two will go head to head on Tuesday in a runoff that will decide who advances to to face Talarico, a 36-year-old state lawmaker, in the general election in November.
The president called Paxton a “true MAGA Warrior” who has “ALWAYS delivered for Texas” in his endorsement announcement posted on social media. Trump called Cornyn a “good man” but deemed him as “not supportive” when “times were tough” — though he didn’t outright mention the GOP incumbent’s vote on Jan. 6, 2021, not objecting to certifying the 2020 presidential election results.
Senate Republicans have voiced frustrations over the president’s endorsement as they hoped to keep their current colleague, Cornyn, in his seat. Republicans worry that Paxton, who supported Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, carries too much baggage from his indictment on charges of felony securities fraud and impeachment, among other controversies.
“To call Paxton ethically challenged is to call Jeffrey Dahmer suffering from an eating disorder,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said Sunday on CNN. “This guy is an empty suit and will do us no service by being in the U.S. Congress. I hope that Texans realize how tough John Cornyn is.”
In spite of the uphill battle, Cornyn continued fighting Sunday to fend off Paxton, touting external endorsements and encouraging registered voters to turn out on Tuesday.
Nora McKee is the D.C. coordinator for MS NOW.