BEIJING — President Donald Trump has called Chinese President Xi Jinping both an adversary and a friend. This week, with the war in Iran fueling unrest at home, Trump heads to Beijing to find out which one Xi is prepared to be.
Even as Trump has pushed for a negotiated end to the Iran war, China has continued to buy Iranian oil, providing Tehran with the economic lifeline it needs to sustain the conflict. Days before the summit, Beijing went further. Foreign Minister Wang Yi met publicly with his Iranian counterpart to tout the two countries’ close ties.
Trump has signaled that Iran will be a centerpiece of talks, urging Xi to reduce Chinese purchases of Iranian oil and instead buy American. Speaking to reporters on May 5, Trump said he has suggested Xi redirect Chinese oil tankers toward U.S. ports.
“Send your ships to Texas. It’s not that much further. Send your ships to Louisiana. Send your ships to Alaska,” Trump said. “Alaska is actually very close to a lot of the Asian countries.”
A senior U.S. official said Trump has spoken “multiple times” with Xi about the country’s purchasing of oil and other goods from Iran and expects it to be brought up during the meeting. Behind the scenes, the Treasury Department has ramped up sanctions on Chinese banks and refineries — a pressure campaign led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
But so far, neither diplomatic appeals nor economic pressure has moved Beijing, and analysts are skeptical the meetings will yield a breakthrough on Iran.
“I really don’t see much U.S. pressure coming,” said Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C. “I think that China has an obvious interest in the war being settled and the Strait [of Hormuz] being open. So, they may have an incentive without any resort to U.S. pressure.”
For its part, China has signaled that it will push the U.S. hard on Taiwan. In an April 30 call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Yi called the island nation the “biggest risk” in China-U.S. relations and said he hopes the U.S. makes the “right choice.”
China views Trump’s trip as an opportunity to “reorient U.S. views” on Taiwan, said Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow in China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington.
Trump and Xi last met in South Korea in October. After that meeting, neither readout from the U.S. or Chinese side mentioned Taiwan. Less than two months later, Congress approved an estimated $11.15 billion arms sale for Taiwan — one of the largest in history — which China strongly rebuked.
“Beijing feels it was a mistake to not raise the issue, to not underscore the importance that Taiwan plays in Beijing’s vision of what U.S.-China relations should be,” said Levin, who advised President Joe Biden on China policy. “They will not make the same mistake again.”
Speaking with reporters Monday in the Oval Office, Trump acknowledged that Xi would likely discuss U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. “I’m going to have that discussion with President Xi,” Trump said. “President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion.”
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Kurt Campbell, a key architect for Biden’s China strategy, told MS NOW that as China faces its own economic challenges due to the war in Iran, from Beijing’s perspective, the meeting with Trump helps remove a degree of unpredictability in its dealings with him.
“I can’t remember a time in the past where China would have been prepared to host under these circumstances,” Campbell said. “And, I think it suggests they too want some stability, some predictability right now.”
The U.S. agenda also includes the release of democracy activist Jimmy Lai, according to a senior U.S. official. Trump has previously asked Xi to “consider” freeing Lai. Other topics on the agenda include trade and investment agreements on agriculture, energy and aerospace.
Experts say that along with what the two leaders discuss in their meetings, the optics of the trip will be “very important” for Trump.
“This will be a visit of tremendous symbolic significance. But of course, President Trump never travels for symbolism alone,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said. While in China, Trump will tour the Temple of Heaven with Xi and attend a state banquet.
“President Trump wants to go to Beijing because he had a great trip to Beijing, in his mind, last time,” said Scissors. “The Chinese do pomp and circumstance well.”
But Trump’s eagerness for pageantry may reflect something deeper. Trump’s approach to China — once defined by confrontation and tariffs — has evolved toward accommodation, with Trump now focused on cutting deals rather than confronting structural problems.
“He wants to solve problems with China, rather than solving the problems that China creates for American national security and prosperity and that of our allies,” Levin said. “Unfortunately, it’s not a game that China is going to play, whether or not the U.S. is competing with China.”
Emily Hung is an associate White House producer for MS NOW.