President Donald Trump is making a high-stakes promise to Americans: Gas prices will “come roaring down” once the war with Iran ends. The problem is that almost no one in a position to know — not his energy secretary, nor the economists tracking the market — thinks it’ll happen that fast. And for a president heading into a critical midterm election, that gap could prove politically costly.
Before the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, the average price of gasoline was $2.98 a gallon, according to AAA, which tracks the national average. It now sits above $4 — a political pain point for the president and Republicans more broadly.
Trump has insisted that the price increase is temporary and that Americans will see relief soon. “When [the war with Iran is] settled, gas prices are going to go down tremendously,” he told Fox Business on April 14. “If Iran does what they should do, it will come roaring down,” he told PBS News on Monday.
But that timeline has found few supporters inside his own administration — let alone among economists.
Over the weekend, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN that the average cost of a gallon of gasoline may not dip below $3 until “later this year” or until 2027. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was somewhat more optimistic, saying consumers could see “gas with a three in front of it” between June 20 and September 20 — a range that technically encompasses $3.99 a gallon, not far from where prices stand now.
Multiple analysts who spoke to MS NOW echoed similarly cautious forecasts.
“Oil and gasoline rise very quickly, and they come down very slowly,” said Peter Earle, economics director at American Institute for Economic Research. He emphasized that this is particularly true in volatile environments when companies are waiting to see if price declines are sustainable.
“Gasoline prices matter because they sit right in the crosshairs of economics and psychology,” Earle said. “They’re visible. They’re unavoidable, and there’s a pretty clear negative relationship” between those costs and “how people feel about the economy.”
That reality may explain the president’s wishful thinking, which has undercut the candid assessments of experts.
On Monday, in interviews with PBS and The Hill, Trump said he “totally” disagreed with his energy secretary’s assessment that prices may not fall below $3 later until 2027.
But, in previous comments, Trump has avoided directly answering questions from journalists about the timeline for price relief. Asked in an April 12 interview whether gas prices could drop before November’s midterms, Trump was noncommittal. “I hope so,” he told Fox Business. “I mean, I think so. It could be, it could be, or the same. Or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same, I think this won’t be that much longer.”
Michael Mische, an associate professor at the University of Southern California and veteran industry consultant, told MS NOW he expects gas prices to moderate in the short term if the war ends soon, with a gradual decline in gas prices between mid-September and late October.
Recommended
“But it all depends on what happens, of course, in the Middle East, and how quickly those oil supplies can be restored going to refineries,” Mische said — particularly in South Korea, India and the European Union.
Lori Ann LaRocco, a supply-chain consultant who spoke to MS NOW’s “The Weekend: Primetime” on Sunday, said she is looking at “anywhere from three weeks to several months for things to correct,” depending on the product and available inventories.
The president has downplayed the impact of chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, where cargo ships have been targeted mostly by Iran and resulted in the deaths of at least 10 crew members, according to the International Maritime Organization.
“We don’t need the Strait. We have our own oil and gas,” Trump told reporters last week. “We don’t need it, but the world needs it.”
However, the situation isn’t that simple. Gas prices are driven by the global oil market, making the impact on the critical waterway — where 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through — inextricable from America’s economy. And although the U.S. is the world’s largest oil producer and the administration is pushing for energy independence, many refineries still rely on a mix of domestic and foreign crude.
All of which means that the Republican Party could be left bearing the weight of sustained high gas prices in the midst of a critical election year. James Blair, who recently left his post as White House deputy chief of staff to run Trump’s political operation, told a gathering of Republicans earlier this year that they have to stay disciplined on rhetoric, since Trump inevitably speaks freely as pleases.
Still, Trump’s messaging typically spreads far beyond that of other Washington officials, meaning voters are likely to hold onto his promise that they’ll be paying less at the pump once the U.S. withdraws from the war — and hold him accountable if they aren’t.
The psychological damage, Earle warned, “may be done even before prices come back down — and that has a lot to do with the fact that prices are rising all over. We have this affordability issue, so oil, gasoline, is just another thing on top of mortgages, on top of higher food prices and everything else.”
Akayla Gardner is a White House correspondent for MS NOW.