Republicans have learned not to defy President Donald Trump at this point. Indiana is about to test whether that’s still true.
Last December, a majority of Republicans in the Indiana Senate voted down a congressional redistricting attempt that the president had pushed hard — one that would have overhauled two Democratic-held districts in an attempt to bolster the GOP’s chances at keeping control of the House in this fall’s midterm elections. Even before the vote, Trump had raised the threat of challenging those who went against his wishes. Since then, he’s endorsed primary challengers against nearly every Indiana Senate Republican who has defied him and is on the ballot this year.
“Why would a REAL Republican vote against this when the Dems have been doing it for years???” Trump posted on social media days before the redistricting attempt failed. “If they stupidly say no, vote them out of Office – They are not worthy – And I will be there to help!”
Tuesday’s primary could provide the first concrete signal of whether Trump’s grip on his own voters is loosening. The results could reverberate well beyond Indiana.
If Trump’s endorsements are not enough to mobilize his own voters to punish defectors in a relatively small-scale state Senate primary, questions about his sway may follow. With a Democratic House majority looking like a real possibility for next year and Trump constitutionally barred from a third term, he is closer to lame-duck status than at any point in his presidency — making his ability to exact intraparty retribution a live question.
The prospect remains, however, that he could still be the GOP’s de facto kingmaker even after he leaves the White House in early 2029, making tests like the primaries going on in Indiana all the more significant.
At this point, Indiana is a reliably conservative state — one where Republicans are comfortably in control.
The December vote was a stinging rebuke: 21 GOP state senators sided with 10 Democrats to kill the redistricting plan. Months earlier, Vice President JD Vance visited the state twice to press for a redraw.
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Trump has since endorsed opponents of seven of the eight sitting Republican senators who are facing voters at the ballot this year while claiming the incumbents are Republicans in name only, regardless of their records in office.
Indiana’s part in the redistricting drama of the past year has been especially fraught. At Trump’s urging, Republicans in Texas started moving last summer to redraw five Democratic seats years ahead of the next planned reapportionment, making them more winnable for the GOP. That led California Democrats, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom, to respond in kind: Voters in the deep blue state signed off last fall on Newsom’s push targeting five GOP seats in the state to offset what was happening in Texas. Republican legislatures in Missouri and North Carolina drew new lines in an attempt to oust one incumbent Democrat each, and Virginia Democrats pushed their own partisan gerrymander that could potentially help the party net four seats in the commonwealth; that plan was approved by voters last month.
Before the December vote in Indiana, several senators said they were targeted with threats or that they had faced attempted swatting incidents at their homes.
But for all the factors swirling around the vote, many GOP members of the part-time Indiana state Senate went against the national leader of their own party.
“I appreciate all the arguments made for and against redistricting, and I respect the individuals making the arguments,” Greg Goode, one of the state senators who could lose his seat Tuesday, said in a December statement about his vote. “I have done my very best to quietly and respectfully listen to the people I represent, and I am confident that my vote reflects the will of my constituents.”
