Since President Donald Trump began the war on Iran in February, gas prices in the United States have risen more than $1.40 a gallon, to a national average of $4.45, according to AAA. Even a temporary ceasefire hasn’t stopped the pain at gas stations across the country. Reports of drone and missile attacks Monday kept the world guessing, investors skittish and oil prices high, leaving little hope of relief soon.
Mind you, this is all the opposite of the “energy independence” that Trump promised in his re-election campaign. By prioritizing oil and natural gas, ensuring that the U.S. continues its reliance, this administration has made the country more vulnerable to the volatility that Trump’s war sparked. And by implementing policies that reverse the renewable energy revolution that had been underway, the Trump administration and its Republican allies have made it that much harder to wean ourselves off the fossil fuels holding the global economy hostage.
The Trump administration has made it that much harder to wean ourselves off the fossil fuels holding the global economy hostage.
In many ways, the U.S. has been fortunate. Over the past decade, the U.S. has recorded huge upticks in oil and natural gas production, largely driven by the development of shale oil fracking. The industries’ growth is such that America is a net exporter, with annual liquefied natural gas exports worth more than soybean or corn exports. That surge has helped the U.S. weather the energy crisis kick-started by Trump’s war better than many countries dependent on oil no longer flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Our geographic location also has upsides: Iran’s closure of the strait hasn’t affected oil shipments arriving to the U.S. from Mexico and Canada, which account for more than 60% of U.S. petroleum imports. But our reliance on fossil fuels still has drawbacks. As I’ve explained before, the price consumers pay at the pump is tied to the global oil market, which remains volatile. With demand for oil greatly outstripping supply, the U.S. simply doesn’t produce enough to match the millions of barrels unable to make it out of the Persian Gulf.
The countries most affected by the strait’s closure are worried about their vulnerabilities — and, to their credit, some have been taking steps in recent years to address them. Many are increasing reliance on renewable sources of energy, including expansion of solar. (As Heatmap reported in March, the raw materials that go into solar panels and batteries have also been affected by the war, but that mostly affects new production.)
Europe is no stranger to war driving up oil and gas prices and was considering alternative energy sources even before Russian President Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine. The European Union countries that have ramped up their renewable energy output over the years have been better able to stave off steep hikes in electricity prices. As activist Bill McKibben recently said in a Democracy Now interview: “Sunlight has to travel 93 million miles to reach the Earth, but none of those miles go through the Strait of Hormuz.”
As with so many things, the best time to have begun making the switch away from fossil fuels was yesterday.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has whipsawed in and out of renewables as political administrations changed. Since last January, the Trump administration has been systematically rolling back policies designed to encourage electric vehicle production as well as reducing fuel efficiency standards for gas-powered cars. The net effect is the federal government fostering even more dependence on gasoline and other refined petroleum products.
The White House focus on fossil fuels has come at the detriment of companies that had begun planning on an increased market for green technology. The shift has created, as The Wall Street Journal put it this spring, an electric vehicle rust belt, leaving manufacturers who had bet on electric vehicles scrambling to roll back their investments. The result is that instead of the U.S. being positioned to take advantage of increased demand for renewable energy, Trump’s war against Iran stands to benefit China far more than the U.S.
The trend in oil futures prices suggests that prices at U.S. gas stations — like airfares — are going to be high for a while. (“It’s gonna be years,” one economist told my MS NOW colleague Alex Witt on air over the weekend.) Even when the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Iran has shown how much damage can be done if cargo shipments at sea are restricted.
As with so many things, the best time to have begun making the switch away from fossil fuels was yesterday. But the pain of watching their bank accounts drain into their gas tank may persuade more Americans that the shift away from fossil fuels is worth it.
Hayes Brown is a writer and editor for MS NOW. He focuses on politics and policymaking at the federal level, including Congress and the White House.