President Donald Trump has the United States stuck in a conflict with Iran, unable to win significant concessions and unwilling to back down in the face of obvious failure. It’s possible the two sides could strike a deal, but if so, the resulting agreement is unlikely to be favorable to the U.S. and could leave Iran in a stronger position than before the war. This problem is of Trump’s own making: In spending years demonstrating that he has no credibility, he has by extension trashed America’s credibility as well.
Credibility gives words power. For words to change others’ behavior, listeners have to believe them. Promises don’t work if the recipients think you’ll break them; threats don’t work if the targets think you won’t follow through.
Even if Iran is open to making concessions, it can’t be sure which ones will appease Trump.
Domestically, if someone breaks a contract, a counterparty can seek recourse in court and the government will enforce the results. That makes the contract more credible, which makes people more willing to enter into deals. But internationally, all countries have is their word, physical capabilities and patterns of behavior. Trump’s behavior has convinced the world that he cannot be trusted. His word is worthless.
Nowhere is that clearer than in relations between the U.S. and Iran. Trump has been trying to get the Iranians to capitulate or at least make concessions, especially on their nuclear program. At every step, though, he has undercut U.S. credibility.
To begin with, Trump hasn’t made a consistent ask. At various times he’s called for regime change, unconditional surrender, a total end to Iran’s nuclear program, curtailing Iran’s missile program, changing Iran’s stance toward Israel, ending Iran’s support for regional proxies and more. Even if Iran is open to making concessions, it can’t be sure which ones will appease Trump. And the warnings of regime change from Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have hardened Iranian leaders’ resolve to endure a protracted conflict.
On the nuclear issue, Trump made the U.S. less credible by reneging on the 2015 deal that restricted Iran’s nuclear program, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, even though Iran was following the agreement. The U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites in 2025, and Trump claimed the country’s nuclear program was “totally and completely obliterated.” Yet within a year, Trump said Iran was on the verge of multiple nuclear weapons. Both of those claims were lies, so Iran can’t trust that Trump will base future decisions on factual reality.
Just as Trump has bombed Iran multiple times after Washington and Tehran cut a deal, Israel employs a strategy known as “mowing the grass,” in which the Israeli military destroys a lot of an enemy’s weaponry then, when more builds up, returns to do it again. So even if Iranian leaders believe they can make concessions to end the war now, they can’t trust that either U.S. or Israel will honor the deal, instead of bombing again in a few months.
Trump’s lack of credibility can be seen in Europe, too.
Finally, Trump bounced from genocidal threats — “a whole civilization will die tonight” — to agreeing to negotiate on Iran’s terms, to reneging by having U.S. representatives demand significant concessions. Iran knows his warnings are often empty bluster, but can’t know which ones. It’s possible that even the president doesn’t know.








