“JD Vance sucks.” I’ve heard that sentiment from Democrats ever since Donald Trump chose the junior senator from Ohio as his running mate in 2024. And it not surprising that Democrats still hold that judgment. What is surprising is that I now quietly hear the same sentiment coming from some MAGA and conservative circles.
To be clear, the vice president is so far ahead in polling for the GOP nomination in 2028 that the next most popular candidate, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has publicly deferred his own possible run to Vance. If you ask the MAGA base, they will tell you without hesitating that Vance will be the 2028 nominee. Many MAGA voters are more interested in whom the current vice president will pick as his vice president than in hearing from any other prospective candidates for 2028.
But the quiet talk in Washington is much different and growing louder. Even Trump is reportedly asking friends and advisers about who would be better – Vance or Rubio. That question alone is a telling admission about the president’s thoughts about his own vice president.
Even some leading Republican and MAGA activists do not have close relationships with the vice president.
Just the other day Politico reported that “some of President Donald Trump’s closest confidantes increasingly see Marco Rubio as a serious 2028 contender.” Semafor subsequently published a story titled “Why it’s still JD Vance” – a headline that some people in Washington viewed as acknowledging the doubts and alarms.
There is griping, from prominent conservatives in Washington and state-based activists, that Vance is not effectively using his current perch at the Naval Observatory to his advantage. They bemoan that he should be hosting grassroots leaders across the country and keeping Trump’s winning MAGA coalition together. Even some leading Republican and MAGA activists do not have close relationships with the vice president. Some say that when you call the White House, Trump calls you back. When you call Vance’s office, however, it takes a while to get a response, if you get one at all.
When Trump chose Vance as his running mate, he was distinctly MAGA – a gift from the base to the base and the next standard bearer of the president’s new coalition. But while he may now be better known, his core political identity is not. In 2016 he questioned if Trump could be “America’s Hitler” and then in 2022 had a “a road to Damascus” political conversion to MAGA. As a political journeyman, no one truly knows what beliefs he genuinely holds absent Trump telling him.
In recent years the most prominent role of the vice president has been in breaking ties in a gridlocked Senate, rather than any governing portfolio – and the same is true for Vance (aside from his new title of “fraud czar”). As the first in succession, it is incredibly hard to demonstrate leadership as vice president when your sole job is to follow the president.
Vance has certainly made a name for himself on social media posting pithy and sometimes even nasty responses. But his online persona seems to have carried through to real life. Where some of the president’s opponents recognize that at times Trump can be charming, even funny, the vice president seems to have one note, and it is flat. If the public wonders what is it like having a beer with Vance, you can bet it is sour.
In January, at a White House press conference, Vance denounced and denigrated Renee Good after a day after her death in Minnesota. Trump, by contrast, seemed to read the national sentiment – noting that Good was a “very, solid wonderful person” even as he criticized her protesting. There is concern that Vance may only appeal to people who think Trump is just not abrasive enough.
It appears that no one is eager to enter their Cadillac in the demolition derby that is the 2028 Republican primary.
Furthermore, while Sen. Bernie Sanders, at 84 years old, continues to pop up at rallies and events across the country, Vance is rarely seen on the campaign trail. Since the start of the war with Iran and at a time of heightened national security, he seems satisfied with a lower profile. Aside from his hourslong meeting with the Iranians, he has largely left engaging with the public about the war to Trump, Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
While Vance’s political sutures continue to fuse, Rubio has seemingly forged the gap between establishment and MAGA. With several campaigns under his belt, from his original Tea Party win to his failed 2016 presidential run, Rubio has deep ties to the party, its donors, its grassroots and most importantly looks incredibly “likeable” next to Vance. The Rubio whisper is now becoming a wish with some who want to keep the White House in 2028.
Expect the jockeying to continue – but only behind the scenes. It appears that no one is eager to enter their Cadillac in the demolition derby that is the 2028 Republican primary. While many potential Democratic candidates are blanketing the early states, not one potential GOP name has set foot in New Hampshire, the most likely site of the first Republican primary. Governors like Georgia’s Brian Kemp and Florida’s Ron DeSantis and senators like Texas’ Ted Cruz and Missouri’s Josh Hawley have long had an eye on the Oval Office. Yet none are trying to get a head start. There are no signs any of them are formulating a presidential campaign, much less crafting one that would continue or differ from the MAGA movement – which continues to be the most dominant force in Republican politics.
In some ways, this is no surprise. Running for president and losing used to only have upsides: a bigger profile for a future run, a Cabinet post or at least regular appearances on a conservative media outlet. But in the Trump years, MAGA frequently has been unforgiving toward the president’s primary foes. As soon as a candidate shows any daylight with the president, on tariffs, war or any other issue, Trump can swoop in and eviscerate that person on social media, damning them in the party and destroying a carefully crafted political brand that took years to create. For many GOP hopefuls, even with Trump’s approval ratings hitting historic lows, “no risk, no reward” has become “no risk, no damage incurred.”
And while it is likely that Trump wants a wide-open primary where he gets to resume his “Apprentice” persona and judge a big 2028 primary field, the reality of the race may be decided if Trump tells Vance to step aside for Rubio. If that happens, not only will the MAGA base polling change overnight, but it will be virtually impossible for anyone else to mount a serious run for the nomination. In the end, for the Republican party and the MAGA faithful, the traditional 50-state nomination process may be replaced with an Oval Office coronation.
Matthew Bartlett is an MS NOW political analyst. He served as a Trump appointee at the State Department in the first administration.