Just as some Democrats around the country fervently hoped, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in Tuesday’s GOP primary runoff. Had Cornyn prevailed, he likely would have easily won re-election against Democratic nominee James Talarico. But with Paxton on the ballot, Democrats have at least a chance at nabbing the seat. This election is about more than control of the Senate, as important as that is. It also spotlights the issue of corruption, which Democrats can run on not just in Texas, but across the country.
Though for years Democrats have hoped that the right combination of circumstances could turn Texas blue, the state remains consistently red. Democrats have not won any statewide race since 1994. Cornyn was re-elected to his seat by nearly 10% in 2020 and Donald Trump won the state by 12% in 2024.
On one hand you have the state’s existing Republican tilt, and on the other you have the corruption issue.
Paxton’s record, however, gives Democrats new hope. Much like Trump, it’s hard to list the Texas attorney general’s scandals because there are so many of them. Some are relatively petty: In 2013, Paxton nabbed himself a $1,000 Montblanc pen someone had left in the basket at a courthouse metal detector, only returning it a year later after security footage revealed the pen pilferage (Paxton claimed he took the pen accidentally).
Others are far more sweeping: In 2015, Paxton was indicted for securities fraud; the case dragged on for nine years, and was finally resolved when he agreed to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution and perform community service and “legal ethics education.” In 2020, attorneys who worked in Paxton’s office as attorney general reported him to the FBI, alleging that he had engaged in bribery and abuse of office. Among other things, it was alleged that Paxton encouraged a developer to hire a woman with whom the attorney general was having an extramarital affair. The Department of Justice eventually closed the investigation, but several of the whistleblowers successfully sued Paxton for $6.6 million — to be paid by Texas taxpayers. (Throughout these scandals, and even after those restitutions, Paxton insisted he’d committed no wrongdoing.)
Three years later, the Republican-dominated Texas House impeached Paxton on charges stemming from the securities fraud scandal and the affair. The Texas Senate acquitted Paxton, with his wife Angela, a state senator, recusing herself. In 2025, however, Angela announced that “after 38 years of marriage, I filed for divorce on biblical grounds,” adding that “in light of recent discoveries, I do not believe that it honors God or is loving to myself, my children, or Ken to remain in the marriage.”
So on one hand you have the state’s existing Republican tilt, and on the other you have the corruption issue. Talarico recognized the importance of this issue early in the campaign. He held a press conference in January outside Paxton’s office to tout his own anti-corruption agenda. And after media outlets called the race for Paxton on Tuesday night, Talarico put out a video calling his opponent “the most corrupt politician in America.”
There may never be a better time to run on questions of corruption. Trump’s actions in his second term are truly mind-boggling: from the gold-plated ballroom and the slush fund for insurrectionists to the way the administration is slashing regulation around crypto and prediction markets while the Trump family benefits from them, to the $400 million plane Qatar gifted Trump, to the government contracts given to companies with ties to Trump’s sons, to the Gulf emirates pouring money into Trump family firms. (The White House says there are no conflicts of interest when it comes to Trump or his family.)
Corruption can help Democrats bridge the gap between policy and persuasion.
Voters might be willing to ignore all this self-dealing if the economy were doing great, everyone had health insurance, housing was cheap and gas was $2 a gallon. But when people are struggling, corruption takes on a new urgency. That’s because it provides a way for voters to understand a deeper rot in the system that manifests in all kinds of ways.
Look at Georgia’s Jon Ossoff, who was supposed to be the most vulnerable Democratic senator up for re-election this year. Ossoff has centered his campaign on corruption, a sweeping explanation for everything that is keeping people down and stressing them out. “You aren’t the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans,” he says. “Corruption is why things don’t work for ordinary people.” It’s a compelling message, and Republicans now fear they won’t be able to beat Ossoff.
It’s also a message that is about Trump even when it doesn’t mention him, capitalizing on the discomfort even a portion of his supporters feel with his greed. In a Washington Post/ABC News poll, 20% of Republicans (and 40% of Republicans who don’t describe themselves as MAGA) oppose the construction of Trump’s ballroom. And the fact that usually pliant Senate Republicans have balked at funding the slush fund suggests they know the public reaction will not be positive. Unlike issues with a clearer ideological valence, corruption makes both liberal and conservative voters angry. That means candidates running everywhere — blue, red or purple, urban or rural — can talk to voters about it.
As the party that believes in government, Democrats tend to care more about policy, the nuts and bolts of governing. They often believe policy is the key to voters’ hearts. They tell themselves that if they can come up with the right framing for a healthcare plan or climate proposal, that will lead to victory. Republicans, on the other hand, often have a better understanding of the deep emotional undercurrents of politics, which helps them sidestep the fact that their top policy priorities — like tax cuts for the rich — are unpopular.
Corruption can help Democrats bridge the gap between policy and persuasion because while it absolutely implicates policy choices, it also transcends individual issues. It speaks to the profound dissatisfaction Americans are feeling about a system in which the rich keep getting richer and democracy keeps eroding further. Thanks to Trump, political corruption is already more visible than ever. Paxton’s nomination could make it the issue of the midterms.
Paul Waldman is a journalist and author focused on politics and culture.