A Russian oil tanker carrying over 70,000 barrels of oil docked in a Cuban port on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said on Sunday he had “no problem with that.” From a humanitarian perspective, it’s good news the oil will provide the blockaded island nation with a few weeks’ worth of fuel.
But from the perspective of trying to understand Trump’s foreign policy, as he simultaneously lifts sanctions on both Russian and Iranian oil, it sure seems like he has no idea what he’s doing.
Earlier this year, energized by his illegal ouster of Venezuela’s president, Trump launched a campaign to try to force Cuba’s government to its knees by cutting off its oil supply. He blocked Venezuela’s oil flows to Cuba, and threatened other countries with tariffs if they provided oil to the country (the main other supplier was Mexico). That pressure campaign quickly took a huge toll on Cuba — it has experienced multiple islandwide blackouts and fuel shortages have wreaked havoc on its health care system and economy.
Trump’s “exceptions” effectively negate the entire purpose of his campaign.
But Trump has decided that Russia’s oil tanker, which was escorted by a warship as it passed through the English Channel, merited an exception.
“We don’t mind having somebody get a boatload, because they need — they have to survive,” he told reporters on Sunday. “I told them, if a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with that. Whether it’s Russia or not.”
This doesn’t make any sense, though, because the entire point of Trump’s campaign was to weaponize widespread suffering to coerce the Cuban government into stepping down or offering concessions. And yes: that’s heinous, because it is reprehensible to punish a civilian population in order to achieve political goals.
It’s highly unlikely that Trump experienced an epiphany over the suffering of Cuban civilians. It is quite plausible, however, that the president was reluctant to block Moscow from supplying its ally. Trump is often sympathetic to Russian leader Vladimir Putin and eager to warm ties with Russia. In the meantime, Russia effectively tested Trump’s Donroe Doctrine of domination of the Western Hemisphere — and may have exposed Trump as a paper tiger.
Trump’s contradictions don’t end there. In response to skyrocketing oil prices triggered by Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, Trump has not only lifted sanctions on Russian oil, but also on Iranian oil in recent weeks. The explanation is simple — increasing the global supply of oil helps keep its price lower, which in turn reduces the heat on Trump as he flounders in his war-making on Iran. But, once again, Trump’s “exceptions” effectively negate the entire purpose of his campaign. Trump’s pausing of sanctions on Iran allows the government to soak up tons more oil revenue and keep funding its war effort against the U.S. And surely Russia, which is providing intelligence to Tehran to target U.S. forces and fighting U.S.-backed forces in Ukraine, enjoys the extra cash and feels more confident about its prospects on both battlefields. On a broader level, the explanation for Trump’s exceptions here are that he just failed to account for Iran’s easily foreseeable capacity to use energy prices as leverage in the war. There are less polite ways to make that point. In the long-term, this might create a more belligerent U.S. foreign policy on balance. If Trump is reducing the power of his economic tools for coercion, it could result in him leaning more on force to achieve his goals. Trump’s reversals and exceptions will be noticed around the world. He is providing ever more evidence to both allies and adversaries that he cannot be trusted to follow through on his word and that he’s not a rational decision-maker. This gives allies fewer incentives to cooperate with him, and adversaries more incentive to try to ride out his pressure campaigns than they might have otherwise. Trump should not be waging these campaigns in the first place. But the way he’s prosecuting them also ensures that they aren’t going to be the quick operations he likes to promise they will be. And they are likely to continue to make the global arena less stable and less safe.
Zeeshan Aleem is a writer and editor for MS NOW. He primarily writes about politics and foreign policy. 
