It’s not easy to judge a president. It’s tempting to hold the ones you dislike to a higher standard while making excuses for the mistakes of the ones you like.
That’s why at the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term, I settled on a handful of benchmarks to measure how he’s doing.
The goal was to periodically provide an interim answer to Ronald Reagan’s famous response to a 1980 debate question about judging the incumbent president:
Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe? That we’re as strong as we were four years ago?
As 2025 draws to a close, it’s a good time to check on how Trump’s doing. On the two core economic questions, the results are mixed so far: Inflation is a little lower, but unemployment is a little higher.
But other benchmarks paint a troubling picture for the next three years: The national debt is higher than ever, America is held in lower regard by other countries, and polls show that Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going.
Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was last year?
The Federal Reserve’s target for inflation is 2%, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal spending. In November, the most recent month for which data was released, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual inflation rate was 2.7%, higher than the target but still far below the peak of 9.1% in June 2022. To take one popular measure, the average price of a dozen Grade A eggs in November was $2.86, down from $4.15 last December, and a gallon of whole milk was $3.97, down from $4.10. But prices have surged for bananas, coffee and beef steaks, among other goods. Trump recently asserted that “prices are coming down tremendously,” but he’s also argued that concerns about affordability are a “con job” by Democrats. A November poll by Harvard CAPS/Harris found that 60% of respondents believed Trump is “losing the battle against inflation.”
Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was a year ago?
Unlike inflation, the Fed doesn’t have a set target for employment. A few years ago, it defined “maximum employment” as an unemployment rate somewhere between 5% and 6%. In November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate was 4.6%, up from 4.1% last December. Economists generally say the federal government shutdown and Trump’s sweeping tariffs led to more volatility in the economy over the past year, but they credit massive capital spending on artificial intelligence for offsetting the negative effects of the tariffs. The economy is expected to be more stable next year, but more trade actions and retaliations could be a wild card.
Is America as respected across the world as it was last year?
The overwhelming answer here is no. Pew Research Center’s 2025 Global Attitudes Survey found that favorable ratings of the U.S. have dropped significantly since last year in 15 countries, with the biggest drops in Mexico (32 points), Sweden (28 points), Poland (22 points), Canada (20 points), the Netherlands (19 points) and Spain (17 points). The only increases in positive opinion were in Israel, Nigeria and Turkey. The survey also found that views of Trump were negative in 19 out of 24 countries and that majorities in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Mexico and four other countries had no confidence at all in Trump as a world leader.
Do you feel that our security is as safe? That we’re as strong as we were four years ago?
There’s no single benchmark to cover the most nebulous of Reagan’s measurements. Since October, Israel and Hamas have maintained a fragile ceasefire brokered by the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, but progress on the next phase, which involves Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the disarmament of Hamas, remains stalled.
Russia and Ukraine remain at war, with estimated overall casualties of almost 1.4 million, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Closer to home, the Trump administration has been threatening Venezuela, seizing oil tankers it said were used to transport sanctioned oil. It has also mounted a controversial campaign of strikes against boats in the Caribbean and Pacific that it alleges are trafficking drugs. At least 105 people have been killed, The New York Times reported.
A few other benchmarks add some valuable context to considering where our country stands after nearly a year of Trump’s second term.
Homeownership: The interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage — the one most popular with homebuyers — is currently at 6.25%, down from 7% when he took office but higher than the historic lows of just under 3% in 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The national debt: It currently stands at $38.4 trillion, up from $36.2 trillion when Trump took office, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Trump’s signature bill from his second term, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is estimated to add as much as $4 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. The southern border: In November, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported 7,350 apprehensions between ports of entry along the southwest border, massively down from 47,330 in December 2024. The number of border crossings is the lowest it has been at any point since 1970, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Of course, opinions may differ on whether that’s a good or a bad thing. Democracy: A recent survey from the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University and Public Agenda found that 84% of Americans believe democracy is either in crisis or facing serious challenges. Freedom House, a D.C.-based pro-democracy think tank, gave the U.S. a score of 84 out of 100 on its freedom index in 2025, up slightly from 83 in 2024 but still comparable to Mongolia and Samoa. But the best measure of how America is doing may be the opinions of Americans. On that front, Trump has improved ever so slightly, but the benchmark is still really, really bad. In December, a Gallup poll found that 74% of Americans were dissatisfied with “the way things are going in the United States at this time,” down slightly from 79% in December of last year. And that may be the only benchmark that matters.
Ryan Teague Beckwith is a newsletter editor for MS NOW. 
