It’s been a good primary season for President Donald Trump. In contest after contest, he’s seen Republicans who’ve opposed him — even in limited ways — fall to Trump-backed challengers. The streak faces a major test next week when GOP voters will decide between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn in a much-anticipated runoff election.
Just about everything that’s been reported about the last-minute endorsement of Paxton over the five-term incumbent Cornyn indicates that Trump’s guidepost wasn’t who would best serve Texas. For that matter, it doesn’t even seem to have been about who is most likely to win come November. And it’s the latter oversight that is poised to make Nov. 3 much more disappointing for the GOP than Trump might expect, given his primary track record.
Paxton is the latest in a string of anti-incumbent endorsements that Trump has made this year in contested primaries.
Paxton is the latest in a string of anti-incumbent endorsements that Trump has made this year in contested primaries. Over the past several weeks, targets of his ire who have lost include Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who voted to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial; Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who has forcefully denounced Trump on the Epstein files and war with Iran; and three Indiana state senators who refused to go along with his push to gerrymander the state’s congressional map into a 9-0 Republican delegation.
In each of those races, Trump’s triumph has its own potential drawbacks. As Politico reported, “For every apostate ousted by Trump this month, there’s a sign of not only his waning political capital on the Hill, but that his backward-focused endeavors have damaged his own legislative ambitions, leaving him a victim of his own primary success.” The president’s decision to endorse Paxton over Cornyn offers up unique concerns that could carry a heavier set of consequences.
Moving Texas from being solidly red to purple has been the subject of Democratic dreams for the past several election cycles. State Rep. James Talarico has been polling well in potential matchups against either of the Republicans he could face this fall. But Paxton comes with an embarrassment of riches to target in a general election campaign.
During his time in politics, Paxton has taken far-right positions that have endeared him to the conservative movement. But he’s also been a magnet for controversy, for both his personal and professional life — and often because of how the two have overlapped. Paxton has faced indictments for alleged corruption, which in at least one case he has taken a plea deal; been reported to the FBI for potential corruption by his own deputies; and been divorced for adultery (also related to corruption accusations) by his now ex-wife, who is also a state senator.
Both Republicans and Democrats in the Texas state House agreed to impeach him in 2023 in articles ranging from bribery to conspiracy to obstructing justice, though state Senate Republicans later acquitted him of all charges.
Trump endorsed Paxton over Cornyn despite all that baggage, calling him on TruthSocial “a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas.” It may help the attorney general defeat Cornyn next week — but Trump’s endorsement may also be more of a weight than a buoy in close races this fall, according to recent polling from Politico.
The GOP’s gerrymandering push has dropped the number of truly contested House seats to an all-time low, mitigating some of the negative effect that comes from being seen as close to a president whose polling numbers are an absolute trash fire. But in statewide races, there’s no way to bisect demographics to tip the scale in the same way — which could spell trouble for Paxton should he prevail next week.
Paxton is the kind of Senate candidate who has, in past elections, dragged down the GOP with his extreme positions.
Paxton is the kind of Senate candidate who has, in past elections, dragged down the GOP with his extreme positions. Former Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., spent most of his time at the top of the caucus shutting down potential primary darlings in favor of recruits more likely to prevail in the general election. The more hands-off approach we’re now seeing could have severe implications for control of the majority come next January.
Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are reportedly “livid” at the betrayal of one of their own and worried about how it could affect their chances of holding the Texas seat. Cassidy has already been more than happy to speak out against parts of Trump’s agenda following his loss; Cornyn may well be poised to join him in the event he also comes up short, particularly given how hard he worked to win the president’s favor this last year. A Paxton win will also likely force the Republican National Committee and National Republican Senatorial Committee to spend far more money than they otherwise would in trying to fend off Talarico’s bid to finally capture a Senate seat from the GOP.
All told, the dopamine rush Trump is likely getting from seeing his personal opponents fall shouldn’t be mistaken as good politics. As former Trump appointee Matthew Bartlett recently wrote for MS NOW, the president’s efforts to purge any Republican who stands against him could come back to haunt the party in the long term. The odds that Trump would recognize his own role in creating a rough election night, though, feel exceedingly slim.
Hayes Brown is a writer and editor for MS NOW. He focuses on policymaking at the federal level, including Congress and the White House.