The president’s poll numbers are in the toilet. He is struggling to stay alert during key events. An overseas conflict is dampening enthusiasm among his base. Voters are furious about rising inflation.
That was the narrative around former President Joe Biden when he exited the presidential race in mid-2024. And every sentence applies now to President Donald Trump, whose recent polling is as bad as Biden’s was when he threw in the towel — or in some cases worse. But the two presidents’ reactions — and that of their parties — could not be more different.
This week’s Economist/YouGov poll, just by itself, made for rough reading for the White House: 36% approval versus 58% disapproval, for a net approval rating of -22%.
Prices are rising faster than wages for the first time in three years.
Believe it or not, however, those are not Trump’s worst approval, disapproval or net numbers. What’s different is the consistency. “In the past, bad numbers one week often have been offset by less-bad numbers in the next poll,” YouGov’s David Montgomery wrote. “Now, the share of Americans who approve of Trump’s job handling has been under 40% for two straight months, and his net approval has been -22 for three straight weeks.”
The lowest three-week average for Biden? -21.8.
Similarly, polling averages from The New York Times and Nate Silver placed Trump’s net approval at -20 and -19.6, respectively. Both numbers are below Biden’s standing when he dropped out of the 2024 race (and below anything from Trump’s first term).
The reasons for Biden’s and Trump’s polling struggles overlap to a remarkable extent. Both learned in real time that the presidency is an even more difficult job when you’re entering your ninth decade on earth. Biden mixed up names; Trump appears to nod off during meetings. Both have been hurt by wars overseas — in Biden’s case, first the Afghanistan withdrawal (the right call, but poorly executed) and later his support for Israel’s conduct in the Gaza Strip. In Trump’s case, the war with Iran has tuned into an entirely predictable disaster that he seems unable to walk away from.
And both, most simply, have been crushed by inflation. As I wrote last month, voter anger over the pandemic-era inflation spike persisted because even as the rate of inflation came down in 2023, prices were still (and are still) going up. It doomed Democrats in 2024, just as it doomed incumbents on the left and right around the world.
And Trump might have struggled with this regardless — barring a recession or some other catastrophe, there was always going to be some inflation. But Trump has exacerbated the problem, first with his tariffs and now with the war with Iran. According to April’s consumer price index, prices are rising faster than wages for the first time in three years.
The president, of course, will always remain loyal only to himself; he knows no other mode of existence.
Worse is likely to come: the producer price index, which measures wholesale prices, came in at a 6% increase over the past year, including 1.4% in the last month alone. That latter number is the biggest jump in more than four years. Both index readings were higher than expected, and suggest there’s still more upward pressure on prices. Perhaps Trump’s fortunes will suddenly turn. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Even as the explanations for their respective unpopularities overlap in so many ways, though, the reactions of Trump, Biden and their supporters are at odds. Democratic leaders and voters backed Biden at first, but as he struggled, more and more encouraged him to drop out. Biden and his inner circle resisted, but eventually relented after his disastrous June 2024 debate performance made his candidacy untenable.
Contrast that with Trump and his party. The president, of course, will always remain loyal only to himself; he knows no other mode of existence. But, for the most part, his party remains steadfast, too.
Case in point, as Punchbowl News reported earlier this week, “both in Washington and in state capitals around the country, Republicans are giving Trump the stiff arm” when it comes to actual policies. And there’s no momentum to pause the gas tax despite Trump’s call to do so, while other GOP-backed bills have moved only slowly as well. And as I noted last month, some right-wing commentators already are opportunistically trying to break with Trump.
But politically, fealty to Trump remains the sole coin of the realm.
GOP voters in Indiana reinforced this earlier this month by ousting multiple state legislators who had crossed the president. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., looks likely to lose the GOP primary, either this weekend or in next month’s runoff, thanks in large part to his vote to convict Trump at his second impeachment following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
Since it’s impossible to acknowledge the president’s unpopularity, Republicans are left with one option: Change the rules to insulate themselves from the voters. As my MS NOW colleague Hayes Brown recently wrote, the GOP, with the blessing of a friendly Supreme Court, is gerrymandering as much as possible to retain its House majority.
But you can’t gerrymander the Senate or the White House, and Democrats have more chances to counter-gerrymander in 2028. And control of the House won’t change how voters feel about prices, nor will it make Trump prioritize voters over his building his White House ballroom. A backlash delayed is not a backlash denied. It just keeps building, before sweeping away the entire corrupt system.
James Downie is an opinion editor for MS NOW Daily.