With tariffs fueling inflation, inflation driving up prices and rising costs deepening public frustration with the White House, President Donald Trump’s troubles at home and abroad are starting to resemble a set of political Russian nesting dolls. Each overlapping challenge grows larger and swallows the next.
Now, U.S. intervention in Iran is adding another layer to Trump’s stack of challenges — a pile so large it seems increasingly impossible to unpack it all before November.
A slew of new polls underscores how compounded these issues have become. A Fox News poll released Wednesday shows that 47% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s presidency, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday reports his approval at a record low of 36% — down from 40% last week. Meanwhile, the latest AP-NORC poll shows that around half of U.S. adults have little to no trust in the president when it comes to foreign policy decisions, while nearly a third say they have little trust in his approach to nuclear weapons, military deployments and relationships with other nations.
Taken together, the numbers illustrate how the White House is facing a complex war beyond the borders of Iran — as well as the public’s growing skepticism of Trump’s judgment at home and abroad.
As Operation Epic Fury drags into its fifth week, Trump has scrambled to make the case that military intervention in Iran is a net positive for the American public, if only the public can withstand the short-term economic effects. But while foreign intervention has, for some presidents, distracted the public’s attention from political troubles on the home front, Trump’s maneuvers in the Middle East are having the opposite effect.
Past presidents have often benefited from the “rally around the flag” effect, a concept in political science in which a leader sees a temporary uptick in support during war. President George H.W. Bush enjoyed a nearly 80% approval rating during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, while nearly three-quarters of Americans supported President George W. Bush’s initial invasion of Iraq in 2003.
But as the American electorate has changed, so has its approach to foreign intervention. Now, public support for war hinges as much on a president’s credibility and domestic management as on threats abroad.
Rather than the abstract concept of far-off battlefields, Americans are enduring the tangible and immediate consequences of Trump’s foreign agenda every time they open their wallets.
Rather than rally around, nearly 6 in 10 Americans say U.S. military action in Iran has gone “too far,” according to the AP-NORC survey. Nearly the same number of voters surveyed by Fox News say they disapprove of the president’s foreign policy agenda, while 64% disapprove of his handling of Iran.
With the conflict estimated to cost a whopping $1 billion a day, it’s also impossible for the administration to shield voters from feeling the costs of war at home. Rather than the abstract concept of far-off battlefields, Americans are enduring the tangible and immediate consequences of Trump’s foreign agenda every time they open their wallets.
Already stressed by rising grocery costs and utility bill spikes, the average American is now pulling up to the pump to find that the national gas average has jumped $1 in just a month, per AAA. Meanwhile, the labor market has taken some significant hits since January, and a partial government shutdown has only created more trouble for federal workers and travelers alike.
America’s cost concerns are only growing. The AP-NORC poll found that 45% of Americans are “extremely” or “very” concerned about affording gas in the next few months, while three-quarters of Republicans and about two-thirds of Democrats say it’s “highly important” to keep oil and gas prices from rising. Reuters/Ipsos found that just 29% of Americans approve of Trump’s leadership on economic issues. The White House is scrambling to assuage the growing concern, just as it worked to downplay Trump’s global tariff war and rising inflation. But Trump’s bullish approach to negotiations — including his recent insistence in a Cabinet meeting that he “doesn’t care about” reaching a deal with Tehran — is far from reassuring. Instead, it’s clear that the messaging is falling flat with voters, who were already facing economic uncertainty before Operation Epic Fury ever made headlines. Now, with pain points coming from all sides, the White House is staring down an electorate caught in a feedback loop of frustration, mistrust and a widely unpopular foreign war. Trump has weathered bad poll numbers before and come out on top. But for now at least, the administration’s global agenda has put its own party in a precarious position as it stares down a challenging midterm cycle. Make no mistake: While Tehran may dominate today’s headlines, it will be the crisis at American checkout counters and kitchen tables that matters most come November.
Bethany Irvine is a Washington-based political reporter who has written for Politico and The Texas Tribune. 
