President Donald Trump reportedly told aides he is willing to end the Iran war while Iran still controls of the Strait of Hormuz, said a closed strait blocking energy shipments is other countries’ problem and told interviewers the strait will “automatically open” when the United States leaves, which will not be “too much longer” because “it’s a total obliteration.”
Stock markets leapt up on the news. But the strait is America’s problem, whether Trump wants it to be or not, and Iran gets a say in how this goes.
The oil and natural gas markets are global. By blocking the Strait of Hormuz at the end of the Persian Gulf, Iran has blocked about 20% of the global supply, and all it needs to do to keep it blocked is make shipping and insurance companies too afraid to sail. Despite an extensive bombing campaign targeting Iran’s military capabilities and leadership, the U.S. and Israel have not been able to stop Iran from launching drones and missiles daily. On March 31, an Iranian drone hit a Kuwaiti tanker off the coast of Dubai. Besides a few exceptions Iran has granted, traffic through the strait has stopped.
Hormuz is America’s problem, whether Trump wants it to be or not, and Iran gets a say in how this goes.
An energy supply crunch is unavoidable, and the odds of one have grown worse every day. The price of oil is over 50% higher since before the war, and it could easily rise more. The U.S. drills more oil than it uses, but it both imports and exports petroleum products, and there is not a large spare capacity to quickly tap that could cover the global shortage. Most oil out of the gulf goes east to Asia, which has been hit harder more quickly, such as in rising airline costs. But no matter what Trump has said, the war has put upward pressure on prices in the U.S., most visibly for gasoline, but also for food and almost everything else.
This has put Iran in a strong strategic position, even as the U.S. and Israel have control of its skies, bombing targets at will. Iran has demanded U.S. forces leave the region and said it will impose tolls to cross the Strait of Hormuz, perhaps $2 million per ship, with all U.S. and Israeli vessels banned. And Iran’s foreign minister rebutted Trump’s claim of negotiations, saying talks have not taken place.
Iran might not want to end the war yet. It can’t trust Trump to honor any agreement, since in his first term he broke the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the “Iran nuclear deal”) without cause, and he started this war while U.S. and Iranian representatives were negotiating. Iran’s rulers can’t be confident that the U.S. and Israel won’t pocket any gains and attack again later. That gives Iran an incentive to impose sustained economic pain, establishing a deterrent the U.S. can’t shrug off.
Even if Trump ordered U.S. forces to cease fire tomorrow, Iran could continue blocking the strait, hurting the global economy and humiliating the U.S. while demanding war reparations. This is not like business, where he can declare bankruptcy and walk away.
Trump’s claims of an obliterated Iran eager to offer concessions is at best wishful thinking, and more likely a lie to get through a few news cycles and boost volatile markets. He has dropped talk of unconditional surrender, or even restricting Iran’s nuclear program, and would find it hard to spin quitting as anything but a humiliating strategic defeat. America’s Gulf Arab partners have urged Trump to escalate, apparently recognizing that ending the war with Iran dominating the strait and charging tolls would be a serious loss.
Trump’s comments about ending the war without opening the strait could also be a bluff — a play for time while positioning forces for ground operations. The U.S. has deployed additional troops to the Middle East, including a Marine Expeditionary Unit of about 4,500 plus 2,000 from the Army’s 82nd Airborne. That’s the sort of capacity to establish a beachhead, potentially on Kharg Island, for a larger invasion to follow, not to take and hold territory.
Taking islands in the gulf or the coast around the strait won’t bring Iran to its knees any more than the bombing and assassinations have, nor fully prevent Iran’s ability to fire into the strait. If Trump ordered ground operations, it would add risk, and even assuming it went well, what then? Indefinite occupation of Iranian territory, taking fire, while economic disruptions deepen?
No matter how hard he wishes or how forcefully he lies, it looks like there’s no good way out.
Trump’s words about Hormuz sound like attempted negotiation. He has devalued the asset, acting like he does not really care about the strait, and Iran should not expect much for it. That’s unlikely to work, since Iran can see oil prices rising, U.S. gas prices rising with them and Trump’s approval dropping. In that light, he looks thirsty for a way out.
Trump’s rhetoric has also directed at NATO allies in Europe, whom he has been berating to join the war. Now he has threatened to leave the alliance if they don’t, undermining the credibility of America’s commitment to NATO, which Trump already had on shaky ground, and with it all U.S. alliances. It also has undermined America’s negotiating position with Iran, indicating a desire to force the strait open, but disinclination to take on the costs alone.
Unsurprisingly, Trump has not gotten any NATO country to join in. It’s a defensive pact, where “an attack on one is an attack on all,” not a promise to help each other’s offensive adventures. Trump did not tell them about the attack on Iran, and later sneered that the U.S. did not need or even want their help. He and his administration have denigrated NATO allies, imposed tariffs on them, threatened to take territory from them and spoken more positively of their adversary Russia than their partner, Ukraine.
Thanks to Trump, leaders in U.S. treaty allies get more domestic political benefit from defying America than assisting. Spain and France have closed their airspace to U.S. aircraft headed for the Middle East, and other European countries may follow. It’s an extraordinary step, highlighting the damage this war has done to the Western alliance, and how much Trump has already done.
The Iran war is already looking like a world-shaping conflict. Trump has gotten America into a bad strategic position, and no matter how hard he wishes or how forcefully he lies, it looks like there’s no good way out.
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman is a political science professor at the University of Illinois, editor of Arc Digital and the author of "Drones and Terrorism."