Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy’s stunning GOP primary defeat on Sunday was a reminder that despite his record unpopularity nationwide, President Donald Trump can still turn out enough Republican voters to make life hell for his political opponents.
Trump tightened his grip on his party Tuesday night after voters ousted one of his chief critics, eight-term Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, from a seat that seemed untouchable just a year ago.
Massie demonstrated strong support in his native Lewis County but underperformed across the rest of the state’s 4th Congressional District. The New York Times officially called the race just an hour after polls closed, and the outcome roughly aligned with recent polls showing Massie fading with GOP voters following Trump’s full-throated endorsement of Ed Gallrein.
Massie’s defeat is so shocking because of what it tells us about the current state of Trump’s MAGA-dominated Republican Party. Trump didn’t just wade into the race by publicly eviscerating Massie on social media as “the worst congressman in the history of our country.” He also broke long-established ethical norms by dispatching Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to campaign alongside Gallrein on the eve of the election.
In pre-Trump times, the Department of Defense typically went out of its way to avoid involvement in domestic politics; Hegseth’s visit was both a worrying development and a sign of things to come.
GOP lawmakers who have broken with the president on the Iran war or criticized the Justice Department’s handling of the Epstein files can now expect a full-bore response from every corner of the administration.
Massie’s defeat is so shocking because of what it tells us about the current state of Trump’s MAGA-dominated Republican Party.
Massie’s race is also a reminder that Trump’s power within the GOP has solidified even as his approval among independent voters and non-MAGA Republicans has noticeably slipped. Cassidy’s loss proved that Trump still has the political juice to enforce his will in states like Louisiana, where a larger share of rank-and-file Republican voters identify as MAGA-aligned. Massie’s defeat demonstrates how Trump can shift the balance of power — even in House districts where he’s considerably less popular with GOP voters.
Still, Trump’s final humiliation of Massie didn’t come cheap. His race quickly became the most expensive House primary in history, with more than $32.6 million in political ad spending blanketing Massie’s northern Kentucky district, according to research firm AdImpact. More than $14 million of that money came from outside groups and Trump-aligned organizations that likely would have preferred to save the money for a general election cycle in which House Republicans are currently expected to lose. But in Trump’s GOP, immediate gratification is always the order of the day.
Trump was already laying the groundwork for additional GOP primary challenges days before Kentucky’s polls opened. He threatened to withdraw his endorsement of Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert, a former Trump ally turned critic, after the congresswoman campaigned for Massie on Saturday. In a post to Truth Social, Trump held the door open for a primary challenger, with the implicit suggestion that any enemy of Boebert’s would be a friend of his. “Is anyone interested in running against Weak Minded Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s Fourth Congressional District?” Trump wrote. “Even though I long ago endorsed Boebert, if the right person came along, it would be my Honor to withdraw that Endorsement and endorse a good and proper alternative.”
In the rush to focus on how Massie’s ouster tightens Trump’s grip on Republican lawmakers in Washington, it’s easy to overlook that primary voters ultimately sided with Trump’s vision of the GOP instead of Massie’s. They are likely aware that Trump has already made himself the center of gravity in the GOP, and is now doing so with the federal government.
There is little stopping Trump from trying to exact political vengeance on any wayward Republican who dared speak out against him over the past year. Whatever nascent Trump-critical movement was developing in Congress under Massie, Boebert and others, it has almost certainly been smothered by a radicalized Republican base.
Even fanatical popularity within the GOP doesn’t necessarily translate to success with voters who increasingly regard Trump as out-of-touch and erratic.
Despite Massie’s prediction in February of “more defections” from Trump due to his second-term unpopularity, his decisive defeat now robs Republicans who refuse to bend the knee of its most visible and effective spokesperson. Meanwhile, few House Republicans will be eager to risk their careers carrying the mantle of a rebellion movement that failed to notch any durable victories against the White House and seems to go against the wishes of GOP voters.
That’s a blessing for Trump and a curse for the American people because a House that lives in fear of Trump’s political reprisals will also grant Trump anything he wishes — no matter how extreme. Any possibility of a House War Powers vote limiting the scope of Trump’s war in Iran likely just followed Massie out the door, while opposition to granting $1 billion in taxpayer funding for his White House ballroom just became a potentially career-ending GOP loyalty test. If Trump ever wanted his face on money, now would be the time to demand it of a terrified Republican-led Congress.
But even fanatical popularity within the GOP doesn’t necessarily translate to success with voters who increasingly regard Trump as out-of-touch and erratic. At the moment of his greatest power within the Republican machine, Trump’s extremism and overconfidence appears to be setting the stage for a disastrous collapse in November. Even in defeat, Massie may get the last laugh if MAGA overreach turns Republicans into a minority party in the next Congress.
Max Burns is a Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies. Find him on X, @themaxburns.