President Donald Trump is refusing to rule out using force to seize Greenland. He has announced that he’s slapping tariffs on European countries that have opposed the U.S. taking over the Danish territory. And he recently implied in a text message to Norway’s prime minister that not winning the Nobel Peace Prize he believes he was due frees him up to attack the United States’ allies.
In that head-spinning series of comments, Trump appears to be embracing “madman theory” hardball tactics in his imperialistic agenda. But while there is at least a debate on whether acting like a madman can be useful against one’s foes, acting in such a way with one’s friends is as alarming as it is foolish. Indeed, Trump’s antics are bound to undermine his goal of U.S. primacy in the world.
Implying that he could seize territory from allies by force is disastrous for the Western order and the NATO alliance.
Madman theory in foreign policy argues that unpredictability and an apparent willingness to use force aggressively can help a political leader intimidate his opponents and achieve his geopolitical goals. Trump has exhibited madman tendencies as he’s alternated between apparent openness to negotiation and threats of extreme force when dealing with adversaries from North Korea to Iran to Hamas. Sometimes he has refrained from using force; other times he has not.
After Trump’s shocking ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in an overnight raid, the officials in his administration seemed to glory in the idea that he could make good on his most improbable threats. After the operation, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dared other leaders to call Trump’s bluff, saying Maduro “f’d around and found out.”
Now Trump seems to be reveling in projecting an image of himself as volatile and capable of anything to secure Greenland as a U.S. colony. When at a Tuesday news conference he was asked how far he’d go to acquire Greenland, he replied, “You’ll find out.”
Trump might think he’s being slick, but he’s steering the U.S. into dangerous territory that differs categorically from playing mind games with adversaries. Implying that he could seize territory from allies by force is disastrous for the Western order and the NATO alliance, destroying the fundamental currency of all social compacts: trust.
“In politics as in business — a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Tuesday in response to Trump’s Greenland-related tariff announcement. If Trump were to use coercion against an ally to redraw the global map, then he would deal permanent damage to a security relationship that helps keep the U.S. safer, keeps its adversaries at bay and reduces the likelihood of global war. NATO would be in tatters, and great powers around the world hostile to the U.S. would take notice. He would also damage his own ability to negotiate credibly in deals with other countries, whether over trade, security or another matter, because he can’t be trusted to keep his word. Making things even worse is how Trump is going about it. After Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store texted Trump requesting a phone call to discuss how to de-escalate the situation, Trump responded, “Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America.” Trump’s text makes the mind reel: Norway’s government does not award the Nobel Peace Prize — an independent committee does. Norway does not possess Greenland as a territory — Denmark does. Trump uses military force all over the world, but wanted the prize anyway. But most importantly, not getting a peace prize does not give him the right to seize territory. One could not blame European leaders for thinking Trump might be a madman and isn’t just posing as one. Even if Trump gives up on his mission to annex Greenland, he has already degraded the U.S.-European relationship to a new low. The U.S.’ European allies will undoubtedly take note that Trump appears erratic and hostile and, in the wake of his stunning violation of Venezuela’s sovereignty, they would be justified in worrying that he could be capable of anything — not just with adversaries, but with them as well.
Zeeshan Aleem is a writer for MS NOW. Sign up for his newsletter. 
