The United States is inching closer to a new deal with Iran that would extend the ceasefire for 60 days, begin negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and reopen of the Strait of Hormuz. But regardless of whether a deal is reached, there is little question that Trump’s Iran war has been an unmitigated disaster. None of the administration’s prewar goals has been achieved. Meanwhile, the costs of the conflict continue to rise exponentially.
In the three months since the U.S. attacked Iran, Trump and other administration officials have offered an ever-changing set of objectives and explanations for the conflict. Hours after the war began, Trump claimed that the overriding U.S. objective in Iran was to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” Trump has been remarkably vague on what those imminent threats are. Amazingly, one rationale he employed was that the strikes would stop Iran from using “IEDs or roadside bombs” to harm American troops, which happened when U.S. combat troops were in Iraq more than 15 years ago.
Another key argument from the Trump administration was that military strikes would prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. Yet Trump has repeatedly said that the U.S. “obliterated Iran’s nuclear weapons program” last June.
The Iranian regime is not only intact, but arguably more entrenched than it was before the war began.
The president has tried to square these two arguments by asserting that Iran was trying to restart its nuclear program. But this claim is contradicted by U.S. intelligence and even Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said before the war began that there was no evidence Iran was enriching nuclear fuel. Moreover, the U.S. military has focused its strikes on Iran’s conventional military capabilities, not its nuclear infrastructure.
What about those conventional military capabilities? Annihilating Iran’s navy was another key objective of the war — and one that the U.S. has come closest to achieving. Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, told Congress that the U.S. had destroyed 161 Iranian naval vessels and most of its mines. Yet these attacks did not target the naval assets of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which maintains a fleet of fast boats and land-based missile launchers, nor did they prevent Iran from shutting down maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump also said that the U.S. wanted to destroy Iran’s missile capability and raze its missile industry to the ground. Never mind that Iran does not possess missiles that could target the U.S. and is, according to U.S. intelligence, a decade away from developing such weapons. U.S. intelligence also estimates that Iran still controls roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpile and mobile launchers, and has regained access to approximately 90% of its underground missile storage and launch facilities.
Then there is Trump’s claim that the war would bring freedom to the Iranian people and give them a chance to reclaim their government. Although Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the first days of the war, the Iranian regime is not only intact, but arguably more entrenched than it was before the war began. If anything, the assassination of the ayatollah elevated more hard-line elements within the government. The Iranian regime is as repressive as ever. Executions of political prisoners have surged, and thousands of Iranians have been arrested.
Most embarrassing for the Trump administration is that one key U.S. objective — reopening the Strait of Hormuz — is only necessary because of the war itself. The potential ceasefire extension would reopen the strait for 60 days and allow ships to pass without tolls or fees — a concession from Tehran. But keep in mind that the strait was open to maritime traffic before the bombs began to fall. And from all accounts, Iran is required to make no other concessions on the other key objectives that Trump used to justify the war.
The war has also imposed billions in costs on various industries in the U.S. and around the world.
Meanwhile, the price tag for the war keeps rising. As of mid-May, the direct costs of the war — according to the Pentagon — were approximately $30 billion. That estimate does not factor in the billions of dollars in repairs to U.S. bases in the region damaged by Iranian missiles
Then there are the indirect costs. The closure of the Persian Gulf to maritime traffic has led gas prices in the U.S. to increase by almost 50%, which translates to nearly $40 billion in additional costs for Americans. Goldman Sachs has lowered its estimate of growth in U.S. gross domestic product this year by 0.5% due to the fighting. Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, estimates that the war has wiped roughly $3 trillion off U.S. stock market valuations and could carry a potential price tag in the hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars.
The war has also imposed billions in costs on various industries in the U.S. and around the world. Airlines will likely pass on sharply high fuel prices to consumers in the form of more expensive tickets. Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz has reduced global helium supplies, which is a key input in semiconductor manufacturing, medical imaging and other industries. The Persian Gulf is also a major transit point for fertilizer supplies. The supply cutoff has led to higher prices for agricultural products and could even reduce global crop yields.
This series of negative outcomes resulted directly from a president starting a war without thinking about whether the conflict was worth it — and, above all, what could go wrong. Deal or no deal, there’s no way to sugarcoat this mess. The Iran war is worse than a mistake. It’s a strategic calamity.
Michael Cohen is the publisher of the newsletter Truth and Consequences and hosts the weekly podcast “That ‘70s Movie Podcast.”