Strongman rule often appears unbeatable at the ballot box, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Sunday shows even entrenched systems can be challenged with the right strategy.
Péter Magyar disrupted Orbán’s 16-year tenure with the support of a broad, unlikely coalition united by three core messages: Orbán must go, corruption must end and Hungary must align with the West rather than Russia. He also emphasized national sovereignty and strict border control, defying easy ideological categorization.
Péter Magyar disrupted Orbán’s 16-year tenure with the support of a broad, unlikely coalition united by three core messages: Orbán must go, corruption must end and Hungary must align with the West rather than Russia.
Magyar, the ex-husband of Orbán’s former justice minister, drew on personal knowledge of the government’s inner workings and crafted a bold, patriotic campaign. His social media strategy centered on a relatable persona. This winning combination goes a long way toward reshaping what effective opposition can look like.
For years, the “Orbán playbook” served as a manual for capturing power through elections — and then systematically dismantling checks and balances, hollowing out independent institutions, and consolidating control over the media and business sphere. Now, Hungary’s politics may be offering a different kind of playbook: one for how to bring down a strongman. Three points are particularly notable.
Change can come from within
It is tempting to view everyone inside an illiberal system as complicit. But such systems are often most vulnerable to those who understand them intimately. After 16 years of failed opposition efforts, Magyar became an effective challenger thanks in part to his insider knowledge — rather than outsider credentials.
Consider: His rise began just two years ago with a Facebook post and a viral interview exposing corruption in the Orbán regime. A meteoric ascent followed. Magyar drew on his insider understanding of how Orbán’s government exerts control over business, education, the judiciary and the media. He named methods and perpetrators with a precision, and a sense of humor, that few outsiders could match, while sharply criticizing the opposition for its weakness and lack of political imagination. This positioning — outside the regime yet deeply familiar with it, and distinct from an ineffective opposition — created a powerful advantage, one that appealed to an electorate in search of change.
Patriotism must be contested, not conceded
This point resonated with Hungarians and could be equally resonant among many Americans. Orbán consolidated power not only through his control of institutions but also by monopolizing national identity. His long-standing strategy has been to frame patriotism as the exclusive domain of his political camp — and the left, to its detriment, largely ceded the point.
Along came Magyar, whose surname literally means “Hungarian,” with several methods for reversing this dynamic. From the prominent use of the national flag at campaign events to his cross-country tour in a flatbed truck decorated in the tricolor, his campaign reclaimed patriotism, visually and rhetorically, as a shared national identity rather than a partisan weapon. He gave speeches urging citizens to “take back” their country “step by step, brick by brick,” making clear with both symbols and words that patriotism is not the property of any single party.
Crucially, Magyar has avoided issues that could fracture his diverse coalition. He has largely steered clear of culture-war flashpoints, including the 2025 Pride parade in Budapest, which was banned by Orbán but more widely attended than ever. By staying laser-focused on regime change, anti-corruption and Western orientation, especially toward the European Union and NATO, he has maintained a fragile but expansive alliance across urban and rural divides and across ideological lines.
Many Hungarian voters may not support Magyar enthusiastically — but enough were eager for change that they were willing to support his campaign.
Charm matters
In a media environment where many of us pay more attention to personality than to institutions, values and facts, Magyar’s energetic and athletic persona and willingness to show vulnerability at times contrasted with Orbán’s carefully curated and inherently insulated image. Social media does not simply compare ideas; it stages a continuous visual contest of bodies, lifestyles and vitality. Even Orbán’s formidable propaganda apparatus has struggled against a challenger who appeared unscripted and dynamic, which resonated as authentic.
Magyar’s ability to withstand constant propaganda attacks with a small but agile communications team, combining start-up-style social media tactics with large-scale, well-produced public events, further reinforced perceptions of him as a resilient political challenger.
Orbán’s long-standing strategy has been to frame patriotism as the exclusive domain of his political camp — and the left, to its detriment, largely ceded the point.
Even moments that would be vulnerabilities in traditional politics, such as outbursts of anger or bouts of passionate partying, ultimately contributed to his appeal as a flawed but driven figure — a Hungarian determined to bring change to his beloved country. Magyar emerged as a folk hero, set against an entrenched incumbent who appeared overweight, both politically and physically. The contest became, in part, one of masculinity; and here, too, the 45-year-old, more athletic Magyar claimed the advantage — even though 62-year-old Orbán has long cultivated an image as a sports enthusiast, especially in soccer.
As opposition movements across democracies struggle against entrenched populist leaders, Hungary’s election outcome offers cautions and insights. Success may depend less on ideological purity than on strategic adaptability. An electorate’s openness to unconventional figures, especially those who make an effective argument to reclaim patriotism, can allow for the construction of cross-ideological coalitions. Leaders must also project authenticity, particularly on social media. A broad, inclusive coalition united around change may be enough to upend even entrenched incumbents, leaving the harder questions of how to govern for the days that follow.
Julia Sonnevend is a sociology professor and co-director of the Center for the American Experience at The New School in New York City. She is the author of "Charm: How Magnetic Personalities Shape Global Politics." She grew up in Budapest, Hungary.