It didn’t feel possible after three straight weeks of chaos, but the House finally elected a new speaker: Rep. Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana in his fourth term. The erstwhile vice chair of the GOP Conference won over the entirety of his caucus Wednesday. As a result, he ended up with more support in one ballot than his predecessor, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., got even in the 15th and final round of voting in January.
Given the messiness of the last 10 months, one tends to forget that electing a speaker is usually the easiest part of being in the majority. (McCarthy’s difficulties winning the gavel and his eventual ouster are historical outliers.) What Johnson now faces, though, is a set of challenges that represent the next lowest bar, one that McCarthy was unable to overcome: keeping the federal government funded.
What Johnson now faces, though, is a set of challenges that represent the next lowest bar, one that McCarthy was unable to overcome: keeping the federal government funded.
In fairness, it’s been a long time since Congress, under either party, has been great at that job. It’s been almost 30 years since all 12 appropriations bills have passed through regular order and before the end of the previous fiscal year. The current fiscal year started Oct. 1, but the government is running on a short-term continuing resolution that keeps the lights on at the same levels as the previous year’s appropriations.
For the far-right members who had been hammering away at him for months, McCarthy’s role in passing that short-term fix was the straw that broke the camel’s back. They said the continuing resolution was a betrayal of promises he’d made them to fund the government only through the formal appropriations process. Even worse, in their eyes, he committed the cardinal sin of passing it by relying mostly on Democratic votes.
McCarthy had already caved in to their demands that the topline spending be below his deal with President Joe Biden, a deal that Johnson also supported but that was clearly beside the point for them. So was the fact that it was the chaos caucus’ own nebulous, hyperpartisan demands that had slowed down the process, blocking several of the appropriations bills from passing. That far-right members had also tanked a version of the resolution that also included a harsh border security bill was never even mentioned. McCarthy had gone back on his word, they said, and for that, he had to go.
When it was passed on Sept. 30, the short-term spending bill was pegged to expire on Nov. 17, but the GOP’s protracted clown show has eaten up roughly half that time. Ahead of Wednesday’s vote on the House floor, Johnson released a letter that lays out a timeline for how he plans to get things done over the next few weeks, and it’s definitely an ambitious schedule. Before McCarthy’s ouster, the GOP had passed four spending bills. Johnson is proposing to pass the Energy and Water appropriations bill this week and three more next week. Two more would pass the week after that, and finally the last two bills, including the Agriculture, Rural Development and Food and Drug Administration appropriations bill, right before the deadline hits.
That’s a lot to get done at any time. It’s especially a lot to accomplish when the last of those bills has already come up for a vote and failed, mostly thanks to moderates opposed to a provision that would restrict access to abortion pills. The bills would also have to make it through the Senate, not known for its speed, before making their way to Biden’s desk.
Johnson acknowledged the likely time-consuming process in his letter and offered a workaround for the looming deadline: “As all of this is being completed, if another stopgap measure is needed to extend government funding beyond the November 17 deadline, I would propose a measure that expires on January 15 or April 15 (based on what can obtain Conference consensus), to ensure the Senate cannot jam the House with a Christmas omnibus.”
It’s hard to see what’s changed between now and then — aside from the person who’s holding the speaker’s gavel.
What he didn’t say was that a failure to have all 12 bills signed into law in January would result in automatic 1% cuts in both defense and nondefense spending. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, tried to use those automatic cuts as a sweetener for his far-right allies during his failed run for speaker by arguing in favor of punting until next year as plan A to avoid a shutdown. Johnson could be employing the same strategy to try to tamp down conservative anger if another short-term spending bill is required. But earlier this year, so many Republicans were against any continuing resolution that McCarthy was forced to turn to Democrats. It’s hard to see what’s changed between now and then — aside from the person who’s holding the speaker’s gavel.
A different person in the role might turn out to be enough, though, given the level of support that Johnson was shown Wednesday. But the process of getting bills passed isn’t the only concern; it matters what’s inside them when they’re sent to the Democratic-controlled Senate. As of now, those House bills either are packed with ultraconservative policy riders Biden would be likely to veto or they would cut spending below levels that Democrats would find acceptable. Those bills can’t pass as they’re written, and it’s unclear how many Republicans are prepared to accept that.
Johnson has a lot of work ahead of him to manage expectations among Republicans if he expects to last longer than McCarthy. He may be more ideologically conservative than his predecessor, but he also has to know that there’s no way the GOP — especially its most extreme members — is going to get exactly what it wants here. Whether he can get his caucus to accept whatever policy wins it can achieve without its throwing him overboard in the process is going to be unlike any challenge he’s faced during his almost seven years in Congress.