If all goes according to plan, congressional Republicans will choose a new House speaker this week. There is, however, no reason to believe that there is a plan, or, if there is, that the party will find a way to stick to it.
The basics seem relatively straightforward. Thanks to a plot hatched by several GOP representatives, Kevin McCarthy was ousted as House speaker last week, and almost immediately thereafter, the California Republican said he would not launch a comeback bid. That opened the door to the first competitive GOP race for the gavel in several decades.
Based on the party’s timeline and schedule, House Republicans will meet privately tonight, followed by a candidates’ forum roughly 24 hours later that features House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan. (A third possible GOP candidate, Oklahoma’s Kevin Hern, withdrew from consideration over the weekend.)
The hope with the majority conference is to choose McCarthy’s successor on Wednesday, though most involved in the process concede this goal might be overly optimistic.
A few hours ago, however, an already messy situation became significantly more complicated. The Washington Post reported:
Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said Monday that he is willing to resume serving as House speaker if enough of the Republicans who voted in favor of his ouster last week are open to his reinstatement. “Whatever the conference wants, I will do,” McCarthy said during an interview on Hugh Hewitt’s syndicated radio program when asked about a possible return to the job.
This was not an offhand comment. In fact, after the on-air interview, McCarthy held a Capitol Hill news conference at which he effectively played the role of House speaker, sharing his thoughts on, among other things, the crisis in Israel. NBC News’ Ali Vitali, who covered the event, noted that the California Republican “still sounds like a man who wants to be speaker.”
In fact, McCarthy reiterated his belief that he enjoys the backing of 96% of the House GOP conference. “I’ll allow the conference to make whatever decision,” he added a couple of hours ago. “Whether I’m speaker or not, I’m a member of this body.”
Of course, the “whether I’m speaker or not” comment suggested that McCarthy believes he might yet wield the gavel again.
He apparently isn’t alone. Rep. Tom McClintock of California described the situation late last week as an “impasse,” and issued a written statement that concluded, “The only workable outcome is to restore Kevin McCarthy as Speaker under party rules that respect and enforce the right of the majority party to elect him.”
Politico added in an overnight report, “The attacks in Israel and demand for U.S. aid are injecting new urgency into recent talks among centrist House Republicans to attempt to reinstate Kevin McCarthy as House speaker, with scores of Republican lawmakers now discussing the effort.”
Republican Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez of Florida added this morning, “I would hope that [McCarthy] would reconsider, put his name in the hat and move past this episode so we can put him back where he belongs.”
While all of this is notable — and somewhat surprising — it’s worth emphasizing that the dynamic that existed last week remains unchanged. Unless McCarthy picks up support from some of the GOP members who ousted him, or some backing from House Democrats, it’s difficult to see how a comeback bid would succeed.
In the meantime, Scalise and Jordan continue to line up supporters; Donald Trump is reportedly weighing the possibility of an in-person visit to Capitol Hill; and assorted members are making all kinds of demands about changing the way the institution can and should function over the next 14 months.
How will this shake out? No one seems able to answer this question with any degree of confidence. Watch this space.