As painful as it is to say, it was only a matter of time before the ceasefire in Gaza collapsed. This is precisely what happened in the early morning hours of Tuesday, when Israel resumed its military operation against Hamas with simultaneous airstrikes across the enclave. More than 400 people were killed in the bombings, a tally that, according to UNICEF reports, included more than 130 children in what the organization labeled one of the largest single-day child death tolls in the last year. Israeli airstrikes continued Wednesday, and if one takes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his word, the renewed Israeli air campaign is “only the beginning.”
It was only a matter of time before the ceasefire in Gaza collapsed.
The cautious optimism that was generated after Israel and Hamas agreed to the three-stage proposal in mid-January, at the urging of President-elect Donald Trump, has been wiped away and replaced by despair and fear about what comes next. Although the ceasefire gave civilians on the ground some much-needed respite, maintaining it to its completion proved about as difficult as climbing Mount Everest without a shirt. Because the agreement was structured in multiple phases, many of the big political decisions — from coming to a consensus on ending the war to rebuilding Gaza and creating a whole new political authority for the enclave after 17 years of Hamas rule — were effectively kicked to a later date.
It gave us all the illusion of progress as Israel and Hamas traded hostages for prisoners. Even the so-called easy part wasn’t without hiccups; the damning handover ceremonies organized by Hamas caused such anger within the Israeli government that it delayed scheduled releases of Palestinian prisoners in response.
In the end, the deal was going to last only as long as Netanyahu wanted it to last. And Netanyahu wanted it to last for only so long as he could avoid discussions about a permanent end to the war, something Hamas would never tolerate. Indeed, even before Phase 1 was over, Netanyahu refused to authorize negotiations on Phase 2, a technical violation of the deal he signed weeks earlier. When Phase 1 ended, the Israeli premier tried to extend the truce on the condition that Hamas continue releasing hostages and continue deferring talks on terminating the war. Those conditions were unacceptable to the group, which insisted on Israel implementing the terms of the original ceasefire.
The result is what we see playing out now: a bloody outcome that was preordained as long as Israel and Hamas retained irreconcilable positions. Add the fact that Trump didn’t seem particularly interested in protecting the ceasefire he helped push over the finish line — on March 5, he even threatened to blow up the truce himself if Hamas didn’t release all of the remaining hostages — and it’s highly unlikely Netanyahu felt much urgency to stick to terms in the first place. If anything, continuing the fighting would strengthen his political position with the ultra-nationalist parties that are key to the survival of his coalition government.
What does the future have in store for a conflict that will cross the year-and-a-half mark early next month?
Unfortunately, the outlook is anything but positive.
Netanyahu is betting that an escalation of the war will, over time, compel Hamas’ leadership to do what it hasn’t done over the last 17 months: hand over its arms, demobilize and excommunicate itself from Gaza entirely. In other words, total and complete surrender. Whether or not he genuinely believes this is possible is beside the point. Either way, it sure looks like Netanyahu has calculated that an unending military campaign serves his best political interests, even if this comes at the cost of stymieing further hostage releases. For many of the hostages’ families, this only confirms what they long suspected. The war, which has already claimed the lives of more than 48,000 Palestinians, will claim yet more lives in the days and weeks to come until one of three things happens: Trump puts the screws on Netanyahu like he did in January, ceasefire and hostage-release talks resume or Hamas admits defeat on Israel’s terms.
The last scenario is virtually unthinkable, so we shouldn’t waste much time on it. The second is possible, but only if Trump carries on with the first. That’s hard to envision right now. Over the last few weeks, the president has been in no mood to second-guess Netanyahu’s decision-making, at times speaking as if he would be perfectly fine with whatever the Israeli PM did. This may be complicated by Trump’s professed grand peace plans in the Middle East; he would still like to see Israel and Saudi Arabia sign a normalization deal on his watch, which won’t occur as long as the war in Gaza continues. But given Trump’s unpredictable nature and tendency to sour on foreign leaders who don’t cooperate, one can’t entirely rule out a shift in Trump’s approach.
One can only hope that shift comes soon. Because it’s likely to be the only factor that will move Netanyahu back on the diplomatic track.