Trading cards have had a healthy resurgence in the past five years. Parents are collecting with their children, card shows are happening all over the country, and private equity and venture capital is flowing into trading card grading companies, auction houses and events.
At the moment it seems everybody wants in on the trading card business, including former President Donald Trump, who recently announced he will be selling a new collection of digital trading cards, called the "America First Collection," on his website. The Trump trading card NFT’s will feature 50 new portraits of the former president, according to a promotional video Trump shared on Truth Social showing images of the cards with him dancing, holding bitcoins, standing next to a buffalo or a lion, and striking various poses.
By now we’ve learned that mass production and proliferation of trading cards can be detrimental to the trading card industry, which we saw in the 1980s and 1990s when card grading companies became greedy and manufactured hundreds of millions of cards to help line their pocketbooks. The current trading card resurgence has been fueled by multiple tailwinds. During the pandemic, for example, trading card sales surged.
So far, the Trump trading cards are being acquired almost exclusively by investors trying to use arbitrage and make a quick buck.
After the company Fanatics acquired Topps Baseball Card Company in 2022, Fanatics founder Michael Rubin has proved to fully understand that overproduction killed the trading card "hobby" decades ago, and is determined to make sure it doesn’t happen again.
His plan seems to be working, with players including team Trump banking on the success of the industry to bring in cash.
For the purchase of a minimum of 15 digital cards (priced at $99 each), Trump promises that a physical trading card, which includes a swatch of the suit he wore during the presidential debate with President Joe Biden, will be mailed to the buyer. A limited 2,024 physical cards will be printed, and Trump will sign five of those 2,024 cards.
Trading card enthusiasts can be classified into two categories: collectors and investors. Much of the time, the two categories are blended. So far, the Trump trading cards are being acquired almost exclusively by investors trying to use arbitrage and make a quick buck, with the physical trading cards currently being offered on eBay even though they haven’t yet been shipped to the original buyers.
Remember, for $1,485 ($99x15), you are guaranteed a physical Trump trading card. There are several sellers on eBay offering the physical card for $10,000 or best offer today. If they can lock in a sale of $1,485 or over, they can make money (keep in mind eBay has sellers’ fees that need to be accounted for). But how effective is this money-making strategy, inspired by America’s most notorious salesman?
Not very. For one, timing is important. Nobody is going to care or remember these cards come November. The time to sell is today. I would estimate the market value of each of the physical Trump trading cards to be $200 to $2,000. It’s therefore a losing proposition to buy these digital trading cards to obtain the one physical card to sell. Again, it costs $1,485 — and even if the $2,000 sale is obtained, you are profiting very little after eBay fees. The risk is simply too great.
Some buyers may want to wait until the November election to sell the physical card, hoping for a Trump victory. This wait-and-see method will certainly be disastrous. As each week ticks off heading into the election, the values of these cards will only decrease.
We have no idea who will win the election. But the value of these cards will decrease either way. If he loses, nobody will care or want the cards. If he wins, there simply will be more supply of Trump trading cards that will infiltrate the market, and more people willing to buy them. Trump may make money off the sales, but there's very little in it for any buyers wishing to do the same.
As for the digital cards being sold, those are worth pennies on the dollar.