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As the dust starts to settle on some highly significant primaries from recent weeks, it’s apparently time to once again shift our focus to another round of notable and consequential contests.
In California, which has an unusual system in which all parties’ candidates compete on one ballot, before advancing to a top-top runoff, there doesn’t appear to be too much drama at the top of the ballot: Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom, on the heels of his landslide victory in last year’s recall election, is well positioned to win a second term.
Similarly, the Golden State’s appointed Democratic U.S. senator, Alex Padilla, and appointed Democratic attorney general, Rob Bonta, are very likely to do well tomorrow and advance to the general election.
There are far more competitive contests, however, at the congressional level. One of the races to keep an eye on is in the 40th congressional district, where incumbent Rep. Young Kim, seen in GOP circles as a future star, is facing potential trouble from a far-right challenger.
In California’s 22nd congressional district, meanwhile, incumbent Rep. David Valadao is facing pushback for supporting Donald Trump’s impeachment early last year. He’s facing a GOP challenger from the right, Republican Chris Mathys, who’s made Valadao’s position on impeachment the driving point of his candidacy. A leading Democratic super PAC is trying to put its thumb on the scale, investing in ads promoting Mathys.
Another competitive election appears to be unfolding in California’s 37th, where several credible contenders hope to succeed Democratic Rep. Karen Bass, who’s running for mayor of Los Angeles.
On a related note, Bass was initially seen as the frontrunner in Los Angeles’ mayoral race, but billionaire Rick Caruso has invested freely in his campaign and appears likely to finish in the top two.
In Iowa, there’s a surprisingly competitive Democratic U.S. Senate contest, despite the fact that incumbent Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley is seen as a heavy favorite to keep the seat he first won during the Carter administration. Former Rep. Abby Finkenauer — whose candidacy was briefly derailed due to a ballot-signature issue, before being restored by the state Supreme Court — is arguably the most well-known candidate, but retired U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Mike Franken has made headway in recent months. Rural physician Glenn Hurst is also seeking the Democratic nod.
In Mississippi, each of the Magnolia State’s congressional incumbents will face primary rivals tomorrow, but only one appears to have something to worry about: In the 4th congressional district, there are six GOP candidates taking on Republican incumbent Rep. Steven Palazzo, who’s faced a series of ethics controversies.
In Montana, which will soon go from having one U.S. House representative to two, the race I’m most interested is in the state’s newly created 1st district, where former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke is making a comeback bid. Zinke, of course, was one of the most scandal-plagued members of Donald Trump’s team, though it’s unclear if that will help or hurt his candidacy.
In New Jersey, Republicans believe Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski is vulnerable in the state’s 7th congressional district, and much of the party has rallied behind Tom Kean Jr., but he’s facing some even-more-conservative rivals in a GOP primary.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on the 1st district, where Democratic incumbent Rep. Donald Norcross is facing a spirited challenge from Mario DeSantis, who’s pushing the incumbent from the left.
In New Mexico, the race to watch is the GOP gubernatorial primary. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham won easily four years ago, but Republicans see her as vulnerable this year, and there’s a crowded field of contenders. Former meteorologist Mark Ronchetti, who ran a relatively competitive failed U.S. Senate campaign two years ago, appears to be the frontrunner.
And in South Dakota, it was just last year when Trump declared that incumbent Sen. John Thune “will be primaried in 2022.” For reasons that never really made any sense, the former president added that the Republican senator’s political career would soon be “over!!!” Tomorrow, Thune will face token GOP opposition, and in the general election, he’ll be one of a limited number of 2022 incumbents to run unopposed.