Control of House, Senate hang in the balance as key races not yet projected

Coming into Election Day, Donald Trump was feeling confident. He teased a "very big announcement" on Nov. 15 that felt like a possible 2024 campaign kickoff. But Tuesday's results — in particular, the strength of Republican candidates in Florida and the relative weakness of MAGA candidates elsewhere — may take some of the wind out of the former president's sails. At least for now.

As Noah Rothman wrote earlier, "DeSantis is politically savvy enough to know that this is his moment. He has to know that new stars like Arizona’s Kari Lake are coming up behind him fast. He must know that it’s probably now or never. But if DeSantis decides to enter the national political arena in 2023, Florida’s voters have made his opening argument for him."

In his victory speech early Wednesday, John Fetterman began with mock surprise.

“What is it, it’s like 1:30 in the morning and you’re still here hanging in?” he said to supporters.

The Democrat, who defeated celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz in their U.S. Senate race, spoke in Pittsburgh for about seven minutes.

“This race is for the future of every community all across Pennsylvania,” he said, “for every small town or person that ever felt left behind.”

Watch more of Fetterman’s remarks below.

Maryland and Missouri have become the 20th and 21st states in the U.S. to legalize recreational marijuana, according to NBC News projections. Voters in three other states — North Dakota, South Dakota and Arkansas — did not approve legalization measures on Tuesday’s ballot, per NBC.

According to an AP-NORC survey, about 6 in 10 voters support national legalization of recreational marijuana.

Fetterman’s debate against Oz in the final stretch of the campaign has sparked a lot of, well, debate. Some pundits called it “painful to listen to,” inviting accusations of ableism and insensitivity. Recovery from a recent stroke has made speech and auditory processing difficult for Fetterman, and that was apparent in the debate. But supporters suggested that Fetterman’s decision to face those struggles publicly would invite empathy and understanding from anyone who had similarly struggled to overcome difficulties. 

There’s also a larger piece of context for Fetterman’s decision to show up: political candidates can be notoriously debate-averse. Until recently, it wasn’t that uncommon for frontrunners in presidential primaries to blow off debates. In 1960, people said Richard Nixon looked sweaty and had a five o’clock shadow, and there weren’t any more presidential debates for 16 years. (As an incumbent president, Nixon declined to debate in 1972 because he said the president’s words were policy and thus it was not appropriate to debate.) Debates are easy to roll your eyes at, with their canned questions and pat answers. But they do have an element of unpredictability, and politicians have often tried to avoid them, even when they’re not recovering from a major neurological event. Food for thought as Fetterman celebrates his win with supporters this morning.

Democrat Josh Green has won in the Hawaii governor’s race, NBC News projects. He defeats Republican Duke Aiona.

Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz has won re-election in Hawaii, NBC News projects. He defeats Republican Bob McDermott.

Last month, FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich picked the race between Democrat Wiley Nickel and Republican Bo Hines in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District as a likely bellwether in the race for control of the House. Nickel looks set to prevail by more than two percentage points. Democrats have already flipped a House seat in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District and may flip another in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District . Another close race in Indiana’s 1st Congressional District looks likely to go blue. Perhaps most shocking of all, hard-right Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., still trails in her re-election bid with 81% of the vote counted.

Not everything’s gone the Democrats’ way: Things still might go south for Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in New York, and Rep. Tom Malinowski appears likely to lose in New Jersey. But the fact that we’re past midnight and the balance of power in the House is still in doubt is not an outcome that many political prognosticators would have expected.

Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has won re-election in Michigan, NBC News projects. She defeats Republican Tudor Dixon.

Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has won re-election in Wisconsin, NBC News projects. He defeats Republican Tim Michels.

Republican Sen. Mike Lee has won re-election in Utah, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Evan McMullin.

It’s much too early to say anything for sure, but some commentators are throwing out the possibility that this will be the best midterm election cycle for a president’s party since 2002. For months, this possibility has been floated around, which points to the question of why some elections have been able to break this midterm curse.

Two related factors are at work: presidential popularity and exceptional circumstances. In 1998, Bill Clinton’s approval rating was over 60% for most of the year. The economy was strong and Clinton benefited from another exception and unexpected circumstance — he was being impeached by Congress, and the American public wasn’t really having it. The 1998 midterms were widely seen as a rebuke of that impeachment.  

In 2002, George W. Bush also enjoyed high approval, and the nation was still feeling the effects of the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks. Bush and the Republicans had effectively defined the attacks and the subsequent war on terror, and the Democrats had little to offer to compete with Republicans on that terrain. 

In 2022, it’s certainly not the case that Biden’s approval numbers are good. But there are so many exceptional circumstances that it’s kind of tough to keep track of them all — the Jan. 6 hearings, the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago back in August, the continued presence of Trump on the political scene, the lingering impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and, perhaps most prominent in election decisions, the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

In many ways, American party politics has become a lot less surprising. There are fewer competitive states than there were 50 years ago, and it’s hard for candidates to overcome basic partisan leanings.  Candidate quality, experience, and even national conditions don’t seem to matter as much as party. 

Political geography seems similarly calcified — rural areas have turned Republican, while cities, for the most part, are deep blue. This means that the handful of competitive areas — sometimes House districts, sometimes whole states — can come down to incredibly tight margins, and it seems like anything and everything can make the difference. 

So far, the 2022 results are following this pattern, with very few surprises. For the Senate anyway, the competitive races that have been called have mostly been victories for the incumbent party, and in line with how each state voted in the 2020 presidential race. But control of both the House and the Senate remains unclear, and with close races determining control of both chambers, it seems like anyone’s guess who will win and what factors will make the difference. 

Summer Lee won’t be the only progressive freshman in the 118th Congress. The incoming congresswoman from Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District will be joined by Texas’ Greg Casar, Illinois' Delia Ramirez and Florida’s Maxwell Frost, among others. But what’s extra notable about Lee is who tried to beat her. 

Since Lee announced her campaign, she was a top target of the United Democracy Project, the political action committee for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. After spending $3 million to defeat her in the Democratic primary, the UDP spent hundreds of thousands more against her in the general election. The intervention in a Democrat vs. Republican contest was all but unprecedented for AIPAC, long one of the most prominent organizations in a studiously bipartisan Israel lobby. But in recent years, thanks in no small part to Benjamin Netanyahu’s embrace of Republicans, Democrats have become more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. Don’t be surprised if that trend continues. 

How it started:

How it’s going:

For context: Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Texas, won her South Texas seat in a special election this year that was seen as a bad sign for Democrats in the midterms. NBC News projected earlier tonight that she would lose her race to Democrat Vincent Gonzalez.

A lot was riding on Democrat John Fetterman’s run for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat. Now that he’s defeated celebrity doctor-turned MAGA convert Mehmet Oz, as NBC News projects, Democrats are surely breathing a sigh of relief: Democratic control of the Senate remains in sight.

As Zeeshan Aleem writes, "Fetterman’s campaign came to be defined less by his policy platform than his clash with Oz, who, as a polished celebrity doctor, was a striking political foil." But in the end, Oz hitching his platform to Donald Trump, and earning a Trump endorsement in the process, was not the right move for Pennsylvania voters.

Democrat John Fetterman wins Pennsylvania Senate race, defeating Republican Mehmet Oz, NBC News projects.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., can’t be happy as the results are pouring in. Not only is the “red wave” that was supposed to make him speaker of the House not materializing, the NBC News Decision Desk says that we won’t know who controls the House tonight. Tellingly, the victory party at McCarthy’s headquarters more or less ended by around 9 p.m. local time.

The Decision Desk’s model still projects that the GOP will win the House, but the margin will likely be thin. The model predicts 219 seats for Republicans — a literal one vote majority. (The model also currently has a margin of error of +/- 13 seats.) That is not the massive majority the GOP anticipated when polls closed. And given how Republicans have a habit of metaphorically cannibalizing their leaders at the best of times, McCarthy can’t be excited to wrangle a caucus where every vote counts. If the Decision Desk’s projection holds, McCarthy may wind up holding the speaker’s gavel next year, but how long that lasts will be much more of an open question.

Democratic hopes of a Senate pick-up in North Carolina have been dashed again, just like they were in 2020. This time, there’s not a dramatic story of an affair over text messages, just a close race that drew less national attention than some of the other competitive Senate contests. 

But this has been the story for Democrats ever since 2008, when Obama won the state and the late Kay Hagan defeated Elizabeth Dole for the Senate. Obama couldn’t replicate his success there in 2012, and Hagan, like many Democrats, went down to defeat in 2014. 

The idea was that the state, particularly its growing “research triangle,” would have the kind of diverse and college-educated electorate that has turned neighboring states — like Georgia or Virginia — at least light blue. So far, this has worked at the state level — with Governor Roy Cooper elected twice — better than at the Senate or presidential level, where neither Hillary Clinton in 2016 nor Joe Biden at 2020 were able to fulfill expectations of winning the state.

If Republicans underperform nationally, DeSantis will be well-positioned to make the case that the GOP should close the Trump chapter for good and turn to him to lead the party into the future. Florida appears to be a very positive outlier for Republicans. Trump may well be the biggest loser of the night. 

Just as Arizona Republicans struck out with their effort to extend polling hours in Maricopa County this evening, so too did Democrats with a similar effort in Nevada’s most populous county, Clark County.

Specifically, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, locked in a tight reelection battle with the state's former attorney general Adam Laxalt, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee alleged that “multiple polling locations in Clark County experienced delays and long lines due to polling locations running out of printer paper in the ballot printers.” Although Cortez Masto and the DSCC detailed how many printers were inoperative and how long wait times were at specific polling places, the court denied the emergency request.

However, because Nevada law allows anyone who was in line by 7 p.m. to vote, the reported thousands of voters who got in line and stayed there will have their votes counted.

The effort to elect progressive prosecutors picked up two significant wins tonight, a counterpoint to lots of the national reporting on criminal justice politics.

What’s more, the wins were not on the coasts, but rather, right in the middle of the country.

The largest counties in Minnesota and Iowa — Hennepin County, which includes Minneapolis, and Polk County, which includes Des Moines, respectively — elected former criminal defense lawyers to run their county prosecutor’s offices.

Mary Moriarty will be the next Hennepin County Attorney — a role occupied by Sen. Amy Klobuchar before she won a seat in the U.S. Senate. Moriarty, a decades-long public defender, was running in a race that the deputy director of the Legal Rights Center in Minneapolis told Bolts was a “referendum on what we want to do as a community moving forward since George Floyd was murdered.”

In a sign of how Moriarty’s opponent, Martha Holton Dimick, viewed the experience of a public defender, in their debate, Dimick said her experience as a former prosecutor under Klobuchar and later judge was better than Moriarty’s because Moriarty “has just worked with criminals.”

Tonight, though, Moriarty won. 

In Iowa, Kimberly Graham — who has experience as a criminal defense and juvenile lawyer — won election as Polk County Attorney on Tuesday in a campaign where she focused on promoting substantial reforms, including decreasing the use of cash bail. She defeated Republican Allan Richards.

“I’m running for Polk County Attorney so I can help create an equitable and effective justice system,” Graham said of her campaign, “where we seek to end racial and income disparities, we invest in our kids because no kid is disposable, and we use evidence-based policies to create a safe, healthy community.”

California and Michigan joined Vermont in enshrining abortion rights in their state constitution tonight in the latest example of a backlash against the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade.

California passed legislation to send the amendment to voters after the court struck down Roe. The move is also an undoubted boon to Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has attempted to make California a progressive haven. 

“The state shall not deny or interfere with an individual’s reproductive freedom in their most intimate decisions, which includes their fundamental right to choose to have an abortion and their fundamental right to choose or refuse contraceptives,” the text of the amendment reads. 

Michigan’s referendum also would protect constitutional rights in the state and it offered a boost to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is seeking re-election in Michigan. 

“An individual’s right to reproductive freedom shall not be denied, burdened, nor infringed upon unless justified by a compelling state interest achieved by the least restrictive means,” the text reads. 

Michigan also has a constitutional amendment referendum while down in deeply Republican Kentucky, voters appear to be slightly pushing back on a constitutional amendment that says that the state constitution does not guarantee a right to an abortion

Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont wins re-election in Connecticut, NBC News projects.

After the 2016 election and the Democrats’ surprise losses in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, some commentators offered advice: Abandon cultural issues and so-called “identity politics,” and pay attention to Trump’s success with white working-class voters in those areas. This advice boiled down to taking a more protectionist stance on trade, talking about jobs, and tacking to the center on culture questions. 

Tim Ryan has made a point to do all of those things, and throughout his Senate campaign has stressed all the ways that he’s broken with the Biden administration and his party. But he still lost in Ohio, to a political newcomer. 

It’s possible that Ryan got closer than nearly any another Democrat would have. But his loss calls into question whether the strategy is a truly winning formula for Democrats.

The weight of Trump on Republican candidates in general elections is obvious with Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Bolduc in New Hampshire going down and with Herschel Walker in Georgia receiving significantly fewer votes so far than Gov. Brian Kemp, who won re-election tonight. There is a clear cost to election dishonesty.

Behold: The final moments of the Mastriano campaign. This video was captured just over an hour before Mastriano’s opponent, Josh Shapiro, was announced the projected winner of Pennsylvania's gubernatorial match-up. 

Mastriano, a Christian nationalist and election denier, won’t be governor. But he might want to call up the Philadelphia 76ers pep squad — those throws were impressive.  

We’ve been saying over the last few hours that the odds of tonight being a “red wave” for Republicans seem to be dwindling. Looking at the results in New Hampshire, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., is thinking the same.

As he told NBC News:

Certainly nothing good, writes Hayes Brown. Among Kemp’s accomplishments is signing “a law that Kemp defends as making it ‘easy to vote and hard to cheat,’” Brown writes. "Kemp has cited high turnout ahead of Election Day as a sign that the law isn’t suppressing votes, but a breakdown of the results should see whether that claim pans out.”

Democratic Sen. Patty Murray wins re-election in Washington, NBC News projects. She defeats Republican Tiffany Smiley.

Republican Ted Budd has won North Carolina’s Senate race, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Cheri Beasley.

While it isn’t clear whether the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade will save every Democrat, voters in Vermont just became the first state to enshrine abortion rights into its state constitution. 

The amendment says specifically that “an individual’s right to personal reproductive autonomy is central to the liberty and dignity to determine one’s own life course and shall not be denied or infringed unless justified by a compelling State interest achieved by the least restrictive means.”

“Vermont voters made history tonight,” The Vermont for Reproductive Liberty Ballot Committee said in a statement. The referendum is just the latest example of voters pushing back on abortion restrictions. In August, Kansas pushed back an amendment to its state constitution. 

Similarly, California and Michigan both have referendums to enshrine abortion rights in their constitution. Conversely, Kentucky has an initiative to say that the state constitution does not protect the right to an abortion. Montana, for its part has an initiative that if passed would mean that health care providers could face criminal charges if they do not take “reasonable actions” to save an infant born alive, including after an attempted abortion.

Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden wins re-election in Oregon, NBC News projects.

Ohio has elected J.D. Vance to the Senate, NBC News projects, making the state red — again, as James Downie points out. The victory over Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan points to solidly MAGA-friendly policies from Vance, who has found his home in Trump’s graces after previously rejecting him. As a senator, Downie says we can expect to find Vance “showing fealty to whatever Republican voters want from him.”

NBC News projects that Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley has been re-elected for the roughly fifty-leventh time in Iowa. I’m not saying that Grassley is old, but he’s literally five years younger than sliced bread. He’s also been in the Senate since Microsoft first released the MS-DOS operating system.

Grassley’s lead has been steadily dwindling in his last few races and Democrats figured that this might be their chance for an upset. It was not to be.

And all joking aside, Chuck Grassley will be 95 years old when his next six-year term ends. This might be a good time to talk about age limits again — for both parties. 

New Hampshire has a unique political culture and identity. But in some ways, Democrat Maggie Hassan’s race to keep the Senate seat she won in 2016 has been an encapsulation of many of the national issues shaping the 2022 elections.

Republican Don Bolduc’s victory in the primary showed the strength of Trump-endorsed, election-denying candidates within the party — even in independent-minded New Hampshire. And as with many competitive races, the polls tightened in early fall, suggesting a tougher-than-expected race for Hassan. Her victory may or may not have implications for what will happen elsewhere, but it’s one more piece of evidence for the limits of a red wave — and of Trumpist politics in a state he lost twice.

Every election, it seems, a Democratic candidate or a liberal political group releases an ad against a conservative in a solidly red jurisdiction that has Democrats standing and applauding.  This year, the leading contender for that distinction was the first ad released by Mothers Against Greg Abbott, which featured women calling Abbott an opponent of family values. MSNBC columnist and Texas native Anthea Butler hailed the ad as “a litany of the horrible policies promoted by Abbott and his Republican colleagues that have made the state a hell for anyone with a working conscience.”  

Arguably, a subsequent ad by the group was even more powerful.  It begins with a 12-year-old being denied a foolish request to adopt a child and ends with a worried-looking 12-year-old being told she can’t have an abortion.

Despite the commercials’ high production values and poignant messages, NBC News has projected that Abbott has won reelection in Texas.  It’s the latest reminder that even the best political ads are rarely game changers and no matter how good they are, that ads can’t vote.

Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul wins re-election in New York, defeating Republican Lee Zeldin, NBC News projects.

Republican Sen. Mike Crapo wins re-election in Idaho, NBC News projects.

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp defeats Democrat Stacey Abrams in Georgia, NBC News projects.

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom wins re-election in California, NBC News projects.

Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla wins re-election in California, NBC News projects.

Democrat Josh Shapiro will be the state’s next governor, NBC News projects. As Hayes Brown writes, it’s “a major relief for fans of American democracy” and means Pennsylvanians are spared the policies of Shapiro's opponent, Trump-aligned election denier Doug Mastriano. Shapiro’s win is also a crucial measure for protecting access to abortion in the state.

Republican JD Vance wins Ohio Senate race, defeating Democrat Tim Ryan. NBC News projects.

Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal wins re-election in Connecticut, NBC News projects.

Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan wins re-election in New Hampshire, NBC News projects.

In a predictable win for Republicans, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has been re-elected, NBC News projects. A steady Trumpification of Abbott’s politics over his past two terms have inspired groups like Mothers Against Greg Abbott and Coulda Been Worse LLC to organize against him, and devastating mass shootings like the Uvalde school shooting at one point appeared to put a strain on Abbott's loose stance on gun control; but Abbott’s hard-line policies won over in the end, and Democratic opponent Beto O’Rourke failed to nudge Texas voters toward the left.

Two House districts high on the GOP’s list of targets in dark blue territory appear to be out of the Republican Party’s reach this cycle, and it tells you a lot about the party’s appeal in the post-Trump era.

In Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, local Republican mayor and prized recruit, Alan Fung, narrowly trails Democrat Seth Magaziner. Fung seems likely to come up short in a district Joe Biden won in 2020 by just under 14 points. And in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District  incumbent Rep. Jennifer Wexton has emerged victorious against Republican Hung Cao. He currently trails Wexton by about six percent in a district Joe Biden won by 19% two years ago.

If these results hold and are indicative of the state of play in the rest of the country, it tells you something about the GOP’s image. These relatively affluent, well-educated, highly suburban districts ran screaming in the Democrats’ direction during the Trump administration. The Republican Party has not, it seems, convinced enough of these voters to reconsider — and it is hard to blame them. Both the party’s elected officials and their primary voters have given the suburban voters who abandoned the GOP four years ago few reasons to revise the verdict they rendered in 2018.

The fundamentals that favor the Republican Party have already delivered a number of districts to the GOP, and it may yet deliver majorities in one or both chambers of Congress. But the more difficult-to-reach districts Republicans fantasized about retaking in recent weeks will remain just beyond their grasp.

Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham wins re-election in New Mexico, NBC News projects.

Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley wins re-election in Iowa, NBC News projects.

It’s still early, so all the results we’re seeing should be taken with a grain of salt. But so far we’re not seeing much indication of a true red wave. In New Hampshire, incumbent Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan appears to be holding her own — either matching or besting Joe Biden’s numbers in the state in 2020. (Biden won New Hampshire with 52.7% of the vote.) 

I’m also looking at the pure toss-up race that is North Carolina’s 13th District, where Democratic candidate Wiley Nickel is leading his MAGA opponent, Bo Hines with over 60 percent of the results in. 

In Rhode Island’s 2nd District, Democrat Alan Magaziner is leading. In Virginia’s 10th and 7th Districts, Abigail Spanbeger and Jennifer Wexton have now been called for Democrats. If there was a red wave, Republicans would likely be ahead in all three states. 

In Colorado, it only took about 30 minutes after the polls closed for the race to be called for incumbent Democratic Sen. Michael Bennett. If this was a red wave, that’s a race that would likely be far more competitive. In Pennsylvania and Georgia there’s an anecdotal evidence that Democrats are out-performing Joe Biden’s 2020 numbers (the president won both seats).

The exception is Florida, where Democrats are getting crushed. They’ve already lost the governor and senate race and may lose multiple House races.

Oh and more thing: There was a lot of speculation that New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul might be in danger of losing. And that’s yet another dog that hasn’t barked.

Again, it’s still possible if not probable that Democrats will lose the House. But so far we’re not seeing the kinds of massive gains Republicans were predicting.

Republican Eric Schmitt wins Missouri Senate race, defeating Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine, NBC News projects.

Democrat Josh Shapiro wins the Pennsylvania governor’s race, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano, NBC News projects.

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott wins re-election in Texas, defeating Democrat Beto O'Rourke, NBC News projects.

How people vote — with a mail-in absentee ballot, early in-person, or in-person on election day — wouldn’t seem like it should map onto any party or ideology. But the partisan split in methods widened a great deal between 2018 and 2021.

The growing gap is due almost entirely to a drop in Republican support for from 57% to 38% for “no excuse” early or absentee voting. This is almost certainly due to party leaders, including former President Trump, making statements about mail-in votes and baseless accusations of fraud in the 2020 election. But even in 2018, the issue was much more popular among Democrats than Republicans, suggesting that partisan differences go back further than the 2020 election.

Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds wins re-election in Iowa, NBC News projects.

Republican Cory Mills just won Florida’s 7th congressional district, becoming one of the first seats to flip from Democrat to Republican so far tonight. The seat is currently held by outgoing Rep. Stephanie Murphy, who rose to national prominence due to her role on the House's Jan. 6 Committee. Remember: Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to win the House.

This pick-up was relatively predictable, so it isn’t necessarily a source of concern for Democrats. But they will need to look for other opportunities if they want to keep control of the House.

NBC projects that Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia has been re-elected. This is a big one for those of you on “red wave” watch. 

Spanberger’s district, Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, was considered a battleground showdown, and her victory could be a bellwether for other toss-up races across the country.

A centrist who flipped a reliably red district to blue in 2018, Spanberger represents an area in which her opponent’s messaging about crime and inflation could’ve easily swept away a Democrat with high Republican turn-out. Spanberger’s narrow lead in the polls earlier in the race was reduced to a complete toss-up by Election Day, but she managed to pull off a win. Maybe other vulnerable Dems in competitive districts will be able to pull it off too. 

Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker wins re-election in Illinois, NBC News projects.

Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth has been re-elected in Illinois, NBC News projects.

Maryland Democrat Wes Moore is the winner of his state’s gubernatorial election, NBC projects, making him the first Black governor in Maryland’s history. 

A Baltimore native and Rhodes Scholar, Moore is a charismatic newcomer to politics whose life story is documented in a New York Times bestselling autobiography, “The Other Wes Moore.” The book contrasts Moore’s life trajectory with that of another man named Wes Moore, also raised in Baltimore, who struggled to overcome systemic inequality and had frequent encounters with law enforcement. 

Moore is touted as a rising member of the Democratic Party, to the extent that some of his backers are even floating him as a potential presidential candidate, according to Politico. 

Republican Jim Pillen has won the Nebraska governor’s race, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Carol Blood.

As Ja’han Jones wrote earlier, a Texas state trial judge ordered Harris County polling places to stay open for one extra hour until 8 p.m. But Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton challenged that order, asking the state’s Supreme Court to reverse that mandate.

Minutes ago, even though 8 p.m. had already passed, that court issued an order staying the extension of voting hours — and requiring that any votes cast between the ordinary 7 p.m. deadline and 8 p.m. be “segregated.” Watch this space.

Republican Gov. Mark Gordon has won re-election in Wyoming, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Theresa Livingston.

Republican Sen. John Kennedy has won re-election in Louisiana, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Gary Chambers.

Polls have been held open in Harris County, the largest county in Texas. A state district judge ordered that they stay open until 8 pm local time because several polling places opened at least an hour late this morning. Texas Republicans have instituted a raft of voter suppression measures across the state to place their thumbs on the scale ahead of this year’s midterms. 

But local Democrats have worked hard to turn out young voters with hopes they can help realize liberals’ dreams of turning Texas blue. Anecdotally speaking, this clip shot by Gen Z for Change activist Olivia Julianna suggests they’ve done a decent job on that front.

The Senate and governor’s races have gotten a lot of attention here in Wisconsin, but there were other interesting things on the ballot this Election Day. In Milwaukee County, for example, there were two “advisory referendums” — non-binding policy proposals that voters can use to express where they stand on these two major questions of the day. These might provide some leverage for politicians hoping to introduce policy changes, even as the referendums themselves don’t have any official impact.

One was on the legalization of the consumption and sale of recreational marijuana, an area in which Wisconsin lags behind some of its neighboring states that have already made this policy change. The other was whether the state legislature should ban assault-style weapons, which may prove to be popular in Milwaukee County, but it seems unlikely to happen statewide.

Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent has a warning for election watchers: Mail-in ballots dropped off today in Clark County probably won’t be counted until later this week, which could give the illusion Republicans are ahead. The GOP might try to assert victory early, in order to undermine more Democratic-friendly results once all the votes are counted. This state subsequently may end up producing some of the messiest races across the country.

Republican Gov. Kristi Noem has won re-election in South Dakota, NBC News projects. She defeats Democrat Jamie Smith.

NBC News projects that Sarah Huckabee Sanders, former President Donald Trump’s former press secretary, will follow in her father’s footsteps as governor of Arkansas.

But let’s remember for a second what her opponent, Democrat Chris Jones, brought to the table. As I noted in June 2021, Jones was has a ridiculously impressive résumé and really highlighted how “exceptional” a Black man has to be to be seen as a viable candidate:

He also checks all the boxes that we don’t say a Black man running for office needs to have — but they absolutely do. Jones is overly educated, far beyond the average white candidate. His wife, Dr. Jerrilyn Jones, and their daughters are featured prominently in the ad — no single, promiscuous African Americans here, just a wholesome upper middle-class family. His last role was all about jobs and businesses and other respectable capitalist ventures, not something confusing like “community organizer.” And the issues he focuses on — education, infrastructure, and “living out our values” — are solidly middle of the road, not too progressive — or too , well, Black — for Arkansas voters.

Look, is it surprising that someone with basically 100% name recognition and Trump’s backing won in the state, which has changed markedly since sending Bill Clinton to the governor’s mansion? No. Especially given how the polls out of the state have looked for the entire general election. But man … I hope that Jones figures out another way to serve.

Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt win re-election in Oklahoma, NBC News projects.

Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet wins re-election in Colorado, NBC News projects.

Few politicians are a bigger embarrassment to this country than Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga. So it’s not surprising that her opponent in this election, Marcus Flowers, would have it easy getting Democrats to open their wallets. But frankly, he had it a little too easy: Flowers raised an eye-popping $15 million for a race that was called almost immediately in Taylor Greene’s favor, in a district that has consistently voted 75% for Republicans.

As campaigns have gotten more expensive, small donors in both parties have made a habit of dumping millions and millions of dollars into hopeless races. Two years ago, Democratic Senate candidates Amy McGrath and Jaime Harrison raked in a combined $220 million, only to get crushed by Sens. Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham anyway. Republican challengers to Reps. Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez raised over $10 million each, to no avail. The first political party that recognizes how to head off this sort of waste will see a huge payoff.

Democrat Wes Moore wins Maryland governor’s race, NBC News projects.

Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen wins re-election in Maryland, NBC News projects.

Democratic Gov. Jared Polis has won re-election in Colorado, NBC News projects. He defeats Republican Heidi Ganahl.

Maxwell Frost has won his House race in Florida, NBC projects, succeeding Val Demings, who gave up her seat in an unsuccessful bid to challenge Marco Rubio’s seat in the Senate. Frost’s victory makes him the very first member of Generation Z to be elected to Congress. The 25-year-old’s win was historic — and frightening to some, who suddenly feel a lot older (Frost was born in 1997). 

Frost has chartered an unlikely and unusual path to Congress. He was an organizer for both March For Our Lives and the American Civil Liberties Union. As a 15-year-old, he volunteered for Barack Obama’s second campaign and, unrelatedly, got his high school salsa band a gig to play in the presidential inauguration. Adopted into a working class family, Frost has yet to graduate from college (though he is nearing completion of his degree online), and has driven an Uber throughout his campaign to make ends meet.

“I’m not afraid to pull up,” Frost told The Guardian. “I have been Maced. I’ve been to jail for talking about what I believe in. So the threshold for un-comfortability is higher than the average person’s.”

In August, Frost won in a crowded Democratic primary against nine other candidates. “We won because of our message: Love. That no matter who you are, you deserve health care, a livable wage, and to live free from gun violence. We made history tonight,” he tweeted then. Frost echoed a similar sentiment on Twitter tonight after his race was called.

As The Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein has pointed out, Georgia’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, is currently outperforming Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker at the same polling stations across the state.

Here’s why that’s striking: Kemp is a deeply conservative politician, but he’s one of Donald Trump’s nemeses due to his refusal to comply with Trump’s pressure campaign to overturn Biden’s victory in the state in 2020. Meanwhile, Walker is close to Trump, backed by Trump, and running on a straightforward MAGA campaign. Current trends suggest that Republicans are making a distinction between the two politicians instead of voting straightforwardly along party lines.

Assuming this pattern holds, one explanation could be that Republican conservatives are still not fully on board with the MAGA agenda. Another explanation could be that the many questions surrounding Walker’s temperament and history of lies and mistreatment of people are making otherwise sympathetic Republicans skip his name on the ballot. And of course there are other confounding variables, like Kemp’s inherent advantage as an incumbent, while Walker is not yet in office. In any case, this bodes well for Walker’s Democratic opponent, Sen. Raphael Warnock.

Former Trump White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders won the Arkansas governor's race, NBC News projects.

Democratic Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez wins re-election in New York, NBC News projects.

Republican Sen. John Hoeven wins re-election in North Dakota, NBC News projects.

Tonight, a Maricopa County Superior Court judge in Arizona heard a request for “emergency” relief that would have forced the county to keep its polling places open for three more hours — and would have prevented the county from releasing the results of “any tabulated early ballot returns in Maricopa County until 11:00 p.m.”

Democrat Mark Kelly's campaign argued that granting that injunction would be fundamentally unfair because Republicans have known about the purported problems since 9 a.m. local time, but waited to file their request for “emergency” relief until polls were almost closed. On the contrary, an injunction would only sow confusion among voters and increase voter fraud, not diminish it. They also failed to include evidence in the supporting affidavits that any voter in Maricopa County was denied the right to vote as a result of tabulation errors in Maricopa County machines.

For their part, the GOP argued that “at least 36%” of the county’s voting sites were affected, but the court questioned the support for that assertion. The judge also noted that those complaining about their experience today were able to vote through a provisional ballot. 

Langhofer urged the court to provide relief, noting the gubernatorial and Senate races in Arizona could turn on what the court decides tonight. But with literally minutes to go before the 7 p.m. deadline, the court denied the GOP’s request, and Arizona polls are now closed.

Just six days ago, Vanity Fair reporter Gabriel Sherman reported that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was likely to avoid a 2024 presidential run if Donald Trump is a candidate. In the days since, Trump has mounted a withering and unprovoked rhetorical assault on his most potent 2024 rival. DeSantis declined to reply directly to the former president’s barrage of insults and innuendo. But Tuesday, he replied indirectly with what, in the end, may be close to a 20-point victory in his bid for re-election.

Already, Republican taste-makers from Fox News Channel to the Club for Growth are making noises about the extent to which DeSantis has demonstrated his electoral appeal in ways Trump has not. It’s an open question as to whether DeSantis will test his mettle on a national stage. He faces the same test former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie faced, and with much the same prevailing circumstances.

Christie rebuffed Republican appeals to run for the White House in 2012, preferring instead to secure re-election a year later. His 22-point victory in that blue state seemed to set him up nicely for a presidential run. But local scandals and the ravages of time chipped away at Christie’s appeal. By the time he launched his presidential campaign, Republicans had moved on. The Garden State governor’s moment had passed.

If DeSantis does decide to take advantage of this moment, he will likely wait until the end of Florida’s next legislative session in May. That will fuel speculation that the governor has ceded the GOP to Trump, putting downward pressure on his appeal. After all, if DeSantis doesn’t have the gumption to challenge Trump, he doesn’t have the backbone for the presidency either.

But even with the wait, DeSantis is politically savvy enough to know that this is his moment. He has to know that new stars like Arizona’s Kari Lake are coming up behind him fast. He must know that it’s probably now or never. But if DeSantis decides to enter the national political arena in 2023, Florida’s voters have made his opening argument for him.

Peter Welch, currently Vermont’s lone representative in the U.S. House, has defeated his Republican opponent Gerald Malloy to succeed Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy in the Senate. The move makes him Vermont’s second-ever Democratic senator in the U.S. Senate. (Remember, Sen. Bernie Sanders is an Independent.) 

Welch has been in Vermont politics for decades. He’s a liberal Democrat, but he’s said he has aspirations to craft bipartisan legislation and work with his Republican colleagues. Something tells me those aspirations will remain aspirations. 

As Peter Welch becomes the second Democrat elected to the Senate from Vermont, it’s worth taking a moment to dwell on Vermont’s electoral history. Vermont has been reliably blue in presidential races since 1992, but before that, Republican presidential candidates frequently won there — except in Democratic landslide years like 1964. 

This history helps illustrate how parts of the Northeast used to be reliably Republican — in 1936, when Democratic president Franklin Roosevelt cruised to re-election, Vermont was one of two states where Republican Alf Landon won. The late Jim Jeffords, whose 2001 decision to leave the GOP and caused control of the Senate to switch from Republican to Democratic mid-session, embodied this shift from northeastern Republican politics to the partisanship and ideology we associate with the state today.

Republican Sen. John Thune wins re-election in South Dakota, NBC News projects.

Democrat Sen. Chuck Schumer wins re-election in New York, NBC News projects.

Republican Sen. John Boozman re-elected in Arkansas, NBC News projects.

Voting processes are rightfully under unprecedented scrutiny due to myriad attempts by Republican officials to undermine or obstruct free and fair elections.

Florida is a case study. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis decided that getting ahead in the GOP meant embracing the party orthodoxy on voter fraud. So he and his staff established an Office of Election Crimes and Security, complete with frivolous arrests.

Now, by refusing to allow federal election monitors inside polling places, as mandated by the Constitution, DeSantis is using the midterms to assert his authoritarianism, apparently rejecting federal authority inside his “Free State.” 

Those Justice Department monitors aim to protect voters and polling places from intimidation. Refusing to allow them inside polling sites is an act of authoritarian aggression. It’s the opposite of the “election integrity” DeSantis professes to uphold. 

Whether the Republicans or Democrats win tonight — or if Congress is split — the midterms are statistically very likely to give markets a boost for the next six months. And with rising inflation and fears of a recession, this could not come at a better time.

According to Forbes, research on post-midterm stock market surges shows that “9 times out of 10 between 1954 and 2017, the U.S. markets have delivered a positive return over the October-to-June midterm period, and compounded returns over those three quarters are around 25% broadly speaking.”

The economy has consistently been amongst voters’ biggest concerns. Increasing interest rates and inflation have made investors nervous, leading to a market nosedive back in September. A host of constraints — not least the war in Ukraine — have only made matters worse. Both the American and global economy would benefit enormously from a post-midterm economic boost. And I’d bet my bottom dollar that whichever party wins will try and take credit for it.

The big story in Milwaukee, where I live, has been long lines to vote. We’re seeing more than an hour to wait in some parts of the city with lots of young voters. People hoping for high turnout see this is a good sign — lots of interest in races for Senate and governor. But it’s debatable whether this is really good for democracy overall. When the lines get too long, voters get discouraged, and some will leave. It’s a fine line. 

Four years ago, in 2018, the political environment was much different — an unpopular Republican in the White House and expected gains for Democrats. But many of the larger political forces we see today were also present then, including a highly nationalized political environment in which candidates were talking about then-President Trump and national issues, all up and down the ballot. There are a couple of things to remember from that election that might be helpful to remember today. 

First, while national politics at that time meant big gains for the Democrats in the House, they actually lost two seats in the Senate. In this sense, nationalization meant that those two seats — in North Dakota and Indiana — changed to match the overall partisan lean and popularity of Trump in those states. The big lesson for 2022 is that the impact of national politics depends on which seats are up for reelection. The situation where we’ve had a number of close races in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Nevada was fairly predictable based on the recent past. In short, those states tend to be competitive, and the national environment hasn’t changed that. 

The second is to be cautious about interpreting early returns from the East Coast. Early on in 2018, Republicans appeared to be having a good night because they won close and somewhat unexpected victories in the Florida Senate and governor’s race. But as the night went on — and over the course of the several days it took to count all the votes — the narrative shifted pretty dramatically.

Democratic Gov. Daniel McKee won re-election in Rhode Island, NBC News projects. He defeats Republican Ashley Kalus.

NBC News has projected that 40-year-old Katie Britt will replace her former boss, Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., taking up his seat in the next Congress. Britt was heavily favored in the race after defeating Rep. Mo Brooks in this summer’s primary run-off election. 

Britt’s win will make her the second millennial to join the U.S. Senate, alongside Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff. And… that is more or less the end of similarities between the two. While Ossoff is still deeply popular among Democrats, and solidly liberal on issues like abortion and voting rights, he’s also been working across the aisle in an effort to reach as many of his constituents as possible, including Republicans.

Britt, meanwhile, describes herself as being extremely pro-life, wants to co-sponsor a bill to cut legal immigration by half, and opposes “red flag laws” to limit access to guns. It’s possible that the two junior senators will bond over destigmatizing mental health, which Britt has called one of the main focuses of her campaign’s policies. That would be intensely millennial of them, but I’d be shocked to learn that they’re swapping memes on the Senate floor this time next year.

Massachusetts will have a Democratic governor come January, the first female governor in the state’s long history.

Maura Healey, the state’s attorney general since 2015, will also join the small group of out LGBTQ governors in U.S. history. Current out governors include Oregon Gov. Kate Brown and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis.

Despite its reputation nationally as a more liberal state, Massachusetts has only had one Democratic governor — Deval Patrick — in the 30-plus years since Michael Dukakis left office in 1991.

Healey defeated Republican Geoff Diehl, a former member of the Massachusetts statehouse who lost his bid to unseat Sen. Elizabeth Warren in 2018. 

Healey began her time in state government joining then-Attorney General Martha Coakley’s office as the head of the office’s Civil Rights Division. In that job, one of her most prominent roles involved helping to lead Coakley’s lawsuit against the Defense of Marriage Act, including arguing against the law’s constitutionality at the federal appeals court.

Steve Kornacki just reported a slate of projected GOPers flipping seats in Florida in districts where Republicans — namely, Gov. Ron DeSantis — gerrymandered the voter maps to shore up conservatives’ control of the state. Specifically, he highlighted GOP challenger Anna Paulina Luna in the 13th District and Laurel Lee in the 15th District, both winners in districts deliberately drawn to favor Republicans and heighten the party’s chances of retaking the House. 

That’s valuable context as you hear pundits talk about GOP dominance in Florida. In many regards, it’s contrived. All of this basically supports the crux of my MSNBC colleague Hayes Brown’s article on GOP gerrymandering from last fall, in which he explains how the GOP could retake the House in this election using dubiously — even illegally — drawn districts alone.

Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, a Republican, wins re-election, NBC News projects.

With the early state polls closed and results starting to come in, Republicans are already feeling a bit fat and happy. With Florida congressional races looking redder than ever, many in the GOP are feeling like it’s going to be “an amazing night” as one GOP insider told me. But it’s early.

With the prospects of a possible takeover of the Senate, in addition to the drape measuring, some senators like Josh Hawley are already declaring “I’m not voting for Mitch” (for majority leader). You don’t put that message on the street on election night unless you’re ready for a fight. I guess Sen. Rick Scott, purported to be interested in challenging McConnell, must be ready for a fight.

Like I said, it’s early.

Georgia’s marquee race between Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker could very well determine the balance of power in the Senate. Georgia Public Broadcasting has a helpful explainer on the state’s controversial new voter law, which is mostly focused on back-end ballot processing but which also allows for counties to begin processing ballots two weeks before the polls close. Even so, results might take time because, as GPB explains, poll workers need to close polling locations, take memory cards from ballot scanners and bring them to county election offices to be processed. That means they will take the second-longest time to report. 

More importantly, if neither candidate in a race wins 50% of the vote, the election will head to a two-person runoff, much like the runoff election that propelled Warnock to the Senate in the first place. But unlike 2020, when the election was held in January 2021, this run-off election will be held sooner, on December 6. Another wild card: The impact of a third-party spoiler, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, who could peel off enough votes to force a run-off as well.

The president’s party usually loses seats in a midterm. But the level of nationalization in electoral politics — where races are tied to national issues, figures, and trends — is recent-ish phenomenon. Most experts trace it back to the 1994 midterms, when Republicans won control of the House for the first time in 40 years. House Republicans ran under a unified set of promises — the “Contract with America” and presented themselves as a team, violating the long-held assumption that “all politics is local.” 

Republicans then took this to the next level in 2010 with the tea party movement, which focused on opposition to Obama and used national figures like Sarah Palin to campaign around the country. Studies of both elections have suggested that the results weren’t just rejections of Democratic presidents — voters also thought Republicans might handle the nation’s problems better. 

This year, Republicans have put out a plan that resembles the 1994 Contract — the “Commitment to America.” There’s a big difference, though. The “Contract with America” left out controversial issues like abortion, hoping to win over moderate voters. Its 2022 counterpart is full of controversial social issues, mentioning immigration, excluding trans women from women’s sports, and “protecting the unborn.” If Republicans get the victory they’re planning on, it will be an open question whether it was a vote for them or against the Biden administration. But there will be little question that the party has continued to shift to the right.

Democrat Peter Welch has won Vermont’s Senate race, NBC News projects. He defeats Republican Gerald Malloy.

The incumbent, Democrat Patrick Leahy, did not seek re-election. He has been in office since 1975.

Democrat Maura Healey wins election in Massachusetts governor's race, NBC News projects. She defeats Republican Geoff Diehl.

The current governor, Republican Charlie Baker, did not seek re-election.

Arizona Republicans are suing with hopes of keeping polling places open longer after dozens of voting locations experienced printing issues with the vote tabulation machines.

GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters and gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, along with the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have all sued to try to extend voting hours to 10 p.m. and to bar the state from releasing vote results until 11 p.m.

NBC projects that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been re-elected. It’s an expected but significant victory for the potential 2024 GOP presidential contender — and a loss for democratic norms. As Ja’Han Jones writes for the ReidOut Blog, DeSantis has “spent the better part of the past year stoking hate toward marginalized groups by signing significant restrictions on school lesson plans that address racism and anti-LGBTQ bigotry, while pushing whitewashed views of American history.”

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, a Republican, has been re-elected, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Jason Martin.

Republican Gov. Chris Sununu re-elected in New Hampshire, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Tom Sherman.

No matter what the outcome, I expect Pennsylvania to start with a red ripple because Republican campaigns have been pushing voting in person while Democrats have been pushing early voting and voting by mail, which means I expect the votes reported first to lean Republican.

While about 70% of the requested ballots were for Democrats, the numbers could not be counted until today. And if a voter who requested a ballot wants to vote in person, they will have to fill out a provisional ballot which will take even more time to count. If that is 20% or even 10% of the early vote ballots requested, that could be a sizable number. So, the early numbers in Pennsylvania will not tell the full story, and it’s important to wait until the full numbers are reported.

NBC News projects Marco Rubio has won a third term in the Senate for Florida, meaning six more years of Republican rubber-stamping in the Sunshine State, Hayes Brown writes.

“Since he joined the Senate, Rubio has been a reliable vote for the GOP leadership, rarely crossing party lines,” Brown writes. “That includes voting against the bipartisan infrastructure bill, restoring voting rights and setting up an independent commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack.”

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster wins re-election in South Carolina, NBC News projects.

Republican Markwayne Mullin has won the special election in Oklahoma’s Senate race, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Kendra Horn.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, a Republican, has been re-elected, NBC News projects. She defeats Democrat Yolanda Flowers.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has been re-elected, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Charlie Crist.

Republican Katie Britt wins Alabama Senate race, NBC News projects. She defeats Democrat Will Boyd.

Republican Sen. James Lankford wins re-election in Oklahoma, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Madison Horn.

Republican Sen. Marco Rubio won re-election in Florida, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Val Demings.

South Florida’s early and mail-in vote has been counted, and the results are nothing short of seismic.

In heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade County, Sen. Marco Rubio has secured 53 percent of the vote compared to Rep. Val Demings’ 46 percent. Gov. Ron DeSantis won 54 percent compared with Rep. Charlie Crist’s 46 percent. And incumbent Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar ran the score up furthest, securing 56 percent of the vote compared to challenger Annette Taddeo’s 44 percent.

This is just the early vote, of course, but that’s cold comfort for Democrats. Republicans tend to vote on Election Day, and it’s entirely possible the GOP’s margins in Miami-Dade expand rather than contract as more of the vote comes in.

This is a watershed moment for politics in Florida and, by extension, America. Just two years ago, Joe Biden won Miami-Dade County by about 85,000 votes. When DeSantis narrowly won the statehouse in 2018, he lost this county to his opponent, Andrew Gillum, by a staggering 20 points.

The pathway to a Democratic statewide victory in Florida runs through Miami. Democrats don’t just have to win the city and its surrounding exurbs; they need to win big to counter Republican victories elsewhere in the state. As Gillum’s candidacy demonstrated, even a big margin of victory in South Florida isn’t always enough to carry the state. 

If Miami-Dade goes Republican, Florida is off the board for the Democratic Party. And if this is indicative of a durable long-term trend, it suggests Florida, with its 30 electoral votes, is no longer a swing state. It’s a red state. 

The New York Times published a poll last month, asking Americans about their feelings about the threat to democracy. While the divide over what constitutes a “threat” is telling, one result stood out as the perfect representation of one of the oldest fights in America.

A near-even split, despite voter fraud being incredibly rare while attempts to narrowly define which voters are “legitimate” are a constant in U.S. elections. The fact is that until the gap between those two answers gets a lot larger, we’re going to continue to fight over what it means to participate in a free and fair election.

It’s possible that control of the Senate will hinge on any one of the states currently tied up in close races. One lesson we learned 22 (!) years ago in the 2000 election is that when the results come down to the wire like that, the details about how votes are counted really matter. And not only do the rules about this vary by state, they can also be different across counties in the same state.

In Pennsylvania, there’s a controversy in the works over whether to count absentee ballots that are missing the date. The Republican National Committee has successfully sued to invalidate these ballots. But groups such as Common Cause, the NAACP, and the League of Women Voters have filed a lawsuit to reverse this ruling, calling the missing dates a “technicality.”

Where this really starts to have 2000 vibes is that it’s up to the county whether they “give voters a chance to fix them” before the end of Election Day. In 2000, when the winner of the presidential race came down to 25 Electoral College votes in Florida, one of many issues that drove the confusion and the lawsuits was that different counties had different rules about how they counted ballots — including letting voters fix mistakes at the polls.

Shot:

Chaser*:

*About the “stay in line” part, at least. There’s no evidence that there’s a plot to disenfranchise any voters in Arizona, Republican or otherwise.

Republican Sen. Todd Young of Indiana was successful in his bid for a second term. His campaign centered largely on the economy, fanning flames of frustration around inflation and high gas prices, for which he blamed the Democrats, accusing the party of economic mishandling. 

The economy has consistently been among voters’ biggest concerns going into the election and NBC News exit polling found that abortion and inflation were the two most important issues to voters, the latter being of greater concern to self-identified Republicans. Given these results and the enormous emphasis GOP candidates have placed on the economy — framing the issue using fear and doom and gloom — it will be interesting to see if Young’s win is a harbinger for similar GOP successes or if it’s more of a one-off.

Polls closed at 7:30 p.m. ET in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, has been re-elected, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Nan Whaley.

Polls have closed in the first states of the night. We’ve spent the last few hours milking any semblance of meaning out of various exit polls. Actual results are only just beginning to trickle in. For the next few hours, almost everything you hear about “the big picture” or “what this all means” is going to be pure conjecture. So this is your reminder that it will be a long, long night.

Republican Sen. Rand Paul re-elected in Kentucky, NBC News projects. He defeats Democrat Charles Booker, who would have been the state's first Black senator if elected.

Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina has won another term in the Senate — and he has said it will be his last. But that doesn’t mean his star will not keep rising.

Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, is deeply conservative, one of the most effective fundraisers in his party, and he delivered the GOP’s 2021 response to Joe Biden’s first State of the Union address. During that speech he (famously or infamously) declared that “America is not a racist country.”

Scott is the sort of politician who could end up in a future GOP presidential Cabinet or become a presidential hopeful himself. (The publisher of his memoir certainly thought of him as White House material.) He’s not only charismatic, but a rare example of an influential GOP lawmaker who isn’t a white man — an increasingly important consideration for an increasingly white nationalist GOP.

Republicans have waged an all out assault against mail-in voting. Why? Because while they are encouraging their voters to vote in person, they are hoping to challenge vote by mail ballots cast by Democrats. In key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Republicans have filed suits that either ignore the law or exploit highly technical aspects of voting laws in an attempt to disenfranchise Democratic voters. 

Republicans should try to win elections by winning over voters, not judges. 

The balance of power in the Senate, the House of Representatives and statehouses throughout the country could hinge on a few votes. These lawsuits are deadly serious.

Authorities in Mississippi’s capital city of Jackson, which is more than 80% Black, are investigating a series of fires reported early Election Day as possible arson. 

Jackson fire officials were notified of seven fires early Tuesday, according to the Clarion Ledger. Police in Jackson say they have identified a suspect. Two of the fires occurred at churches, with one of them appearing to be completely burned out. 

With the investigation in flux, we’re not yet certain whether the fires were deliberately set to coincide with Election Day. But with the palpable threat of right-wing election violence looming over these midterms, that possibility can’t be discounted outright either.

Trump said on Newsmax this evening that he would support Kevin McCarthy to be leader of the House, but would not support Mitch McConnell in the Senate, as a feud between he and Trump intensifies. “I don’t think I would,” Trump said of supporting McConnell. “I was thinking I might… because he just, you know, he has not done the job. But I don’t think I’d do that. And I will absolutely back Kevin.”

Trump has singled out McConnell in a petty and personal battle over the senator’s refusal to embrace the Jan. 6th insurrection. In September, McConnell supported legislation designed to mitigate the likelihood of another insurrection by targeting election subversion. The two also chose to support different and opposing candidates across the country. Relatedly, they’re both vying for credit should the Republicans win big tonight.

Polls closed at 7 p.m. ET in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia.

Republican Sen. Todd Young has been re-elected in Indiana, defeating Democrat Thomas McDermott, NBC News projects.

Republican Sen. Tim Scott has been re-elected in South Carolina, defeating Democrat Krystle Matthews, NBC News projects.

Commentators have been talking about the possibility of big losses for Democrats since, well, pretty much when Biden took office. Why does the president’s party almost always seem to lose seats? Political scientists tend to look at three explanations — the “surge and decline” theory, the idea that the midterm elections are referenda on presidential performance, and the “balancing” thesis. What do these have to tell us about 2022? And what can the 2022 results eventually tell us about these theories? 

Let’s start with “surge and decline.” The idea here is that the president’s party tends to win big in the presidential election, thus holding a bunch of seats they probably wouldn’t normally have. That’s not really applicable this year — the Democrats hold really narrow margins in both chambers at the moment, and they actually lost seats in 2020 in the House. 

The “referendum” theory is just like it sounds. And if this is true, then we should expect midterm results to track with presidential approval and other factors like the economy. Presidential approval on its own doesn’t actually seem to track all that well with seat losses for his party, though prediction models that incorporate approval and economic factors like disposable income have performed well in the past. If the Democrats outperform expectations in these elections, this might suggest that other considerations, like abortion, shaped voters’ thinking rather than just evaluating how the president is doing. 

The idea of balancing also suggests that voters are looking ahead as well as back when they make their choices. If one party goes too far, the midterm election offers an opportunity to balance by weakening their power, even handing control of Congress to their opponents. In today’s polarized environment, it seems kind of difficult to imagine many voters think this way. But maybe it’s enough to swing a close race. Furthermore, the balancing argument has been offered as an explanation for how the Dobbs decision could shake things up — voters might be responding to the power of the Supreme Court, rather than the party that controls Congress and the White House.

NBC News’ preliminary exit polling found that of the top issues motivating voters this year, abortion (27%) ranked almost as high as inflation (32%). What’s more, a majority of voters “disapprove” of or are “dissatisfied” with the Supreme Court’s decision that overturned Roe. All things being equal, that should translate into more votes for Democrats.

But all things are not equal. Beyond the relative salience of these issues, the partisan advantage they convey is not as clear-cut as we might expect.

On inflation, NBC News’ early exit polling finds that voters believe Democrats have a distinct advantage over the GOP. But, with 52% backing Democrats on the issue over the 42% who support the GOP, Democrats enjoy only a 10-point advantage on the issue. The same preliminary exit polling found that a full 60% of voters described themselves as either “angry” with or “dissatisfied” by the Supreme Court’s decision striking down Dobbs.

If these unweighted, early exit polls are indicative of the final result, it would mean that Democrats are unlikely to enjoy the kind of boost at the polls you might expect if abortion really was the top priority for close to 30% of voters.

Some CNN pundits are expressing surprise that the top issues voters are most concerned about, like inflation, abortion and crime, don’t include “democracy.” 

“You know what’s missing from this one, two, three, four, five, top five issues? Democracy,” Dana Bash noted in a panel discussion.

The conservative website Townhall shared a video clip of the comment, which was readily met with mockery from right-wing commentators. Dems put so much effort into saying democracy was on the ballot and voters don’t even care is the subtext of the derisive responses.

The issue is that, as I’ve written before, Democrats actually didn’t campaign on Jan. 6 or democracy being on the ballot for a good reason. Instead, they focused on issues like abortion, improving the economy, and tangible policy wins like insulin price caps. So this isn’t exactly a sign of messaging failure. 

“Democracy” is a vast, abstract concept, and it should not surprise us that it doesn’t rank at the top of voter concerns, and doesn’t naturally fit alongside a list of issues like crime or the economy. The reality is that, as much as the GOP’s threat to democracy is real and dangerous, it’s not something that’s likely to register with voters as an imminent crisis as opposed to a longer-term one during midterm elections when Donald Trump isn’t even on the ballot. 

The Democratic Party’s closing message to voters in this election cycle focused heavily on the threat posed to America’s democracy institutions by Trump-aligned Republican candidates. NBC News’ early exit polling suggests this Democratic message cut through the noise to some degree, but not in ways that cleanly benefit the Democratic Party.

Exit polling indicates that fears about the future of American democracy are bipartisan. Seventy-two percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans agree that America’s republican traditions and its mechanisms of self-government are “threatened.” Obviously, what Democrats and Republicans mean by that differs wildly. More interestingly, though, voters appear to believe that this threat is limited to the federal level.

Just 29 percent of Republicans and only 5 percent of Democrats said they were not confident elections in their states would be conducted fairly and accurately. Seventy-one percent of Republicans expressed no concerns about the integrity of elections on the local level. If you’re wondering why “threats to democracy” failed to outrank issues like inflation, abortion, crime, immigration and gun violence as the primary concerns animating voters, look no further.

If the Democratic Party’s calculation was to localize the threat that produced violence and subversion on Jan. 6, it failed. But it failed, primarily, because the conditions that results in the Capitol riots were entirely federal. Voters have far more faith in the institutions close to them than they do in Washington.

A study of how political candidates have used Twitter this election season, conducted by Pew Research Center, shows us that the two parties use very different language to discuss the same issues and themes. This may be both symptomatic of and augment the disparate interpretations of reality. 

For example, when discussing the economy, hot-button GOP words and phrases include “crushing,” “skyrocketing” and “Bidenflation,” while Democratic candidates tended to use words like “recovery,” blaming the issue on “corporate greed” and “price gouging.” When it came to race, GOP candidates focused on Black Lives Matter, stoking fear with phrases and words like “critical race theory” and “woke.” Democrats framed the issue of race with language like “equity,” “discrimination” and “systemic racism.”

The two parties’ choice of language also reveal the GOP’s communications strategy of fear-mongering, whereas Democrats attempt to invoke optimism.

Republicans spent $23 million in Colorado to flip the state Senate. These are numbers that are unheard of and unseen in state legislative races — $100 and $1,000 goes a long way in state legislative races. But $23 million is a trend to pay attention to.

In 2020, Indigenous voters in Arizona helped Joe Biden and Democrats secure big wins in the presidential and Senate races. And not long after the election, Arizona Republicans moved to make it harder to vote for this key bloc. 

The New Yorker has a great explainer on the voter suppression efforts Arizona GOPers put in place to curb ways that Indigenous voters often cast ballots and also to potentially establish grounds to toss out Indigenous ballots. These measures include bans on out-of-precinct voting and prohibitions on receiving help from a friend or neighbor to drop off a ballot.

Internet, rejoice! You can watch our favorite khaki king, MSNBC election expert Steve Kornacki, breaking down the results live all night on our live Cornacki Cam here.

I just spoke with folks at the White House who believe their chances are much better than projected. They are pushing back on reports that the White House is bracing for a tough night. The White House feels, as does this insider, that the current polling is not capturing the enthusiasm among women voters — particularly white women in the suburbs. The White House also notes polling is not capturing any potential new voters.

A state where new potential voters will be decisive is Georgia — which shattered the 2.5 million mark for ballots cast prior to Election Day. The early vote there is up more than 5% from the last election, a presidential election. I’m told over 135,000 of those early voters are Black voters.

Sources are now telling me they believe that Stacey Abrams and Raphael Warnock are both going to a run-off. This is a shift in in tone from what I heard a week ago, when Abrams' own pollsters said that she would not make it to a runoff.

Somewhat unsurprisingly, Democrats named abortion as their top issue while Republicans listed inflation as their top concern, according to exit polling by NBC News. 

Nearly a third of voters (32%) named inflation as their top issue, while a quarter (27%) said abortion was their No. 1 issue. Meanwhile, 44% of Republican voters named inflation as their biggest concern, followed by 15% who said immigration. Conversely, 46% of Democrats named abortion as their top issue, followed by 15% who named inflation.

The poll was conducted as voters left polling places across the country on Tuesday, so many who voted early or by mail were likely not tracked, making it an imperfect tool for measuring public sentiment.