Two days into the government shutdown, Democrats in Congress are showing little sign of relenting, betting that refocusing the national conversation on health care is a winning gambit for their party — even if Democrats don’t have a clear idea of what success in this standoff might look like.
Asked to describe what they want to accomplish from this shutdown, Democrats sound united that the dispute is about health care.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., described a win as the American people’s “not seeing their health care costs shoot through the roof.” Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said it would be “getting relief for people who’ve been hit by our health care wrecking ball.” And Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., likened a victory to “when we restore and make sure that Americans don’t lose their [Affordable Care Act] tax credits.”
A year from now, people will remember Democrats fought to protect access to affordable health care while Republicans resisted it at every turn.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren
Democrats insist that Congress must act now to address Obamacare premiums that will, in some cases, more than double as a result of subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year. For the moment, they’re also demanding a reversal of the Medicaid cuts in the GOP’s reconciliation bill — a farfetched demand that Republicans aren’t even taking seriously.
But Democrats also see a more realistic win that’s within their grasp: bringing attention back to health care.
It’s an issue on which Democrats hold a firm political advantage in poll after poll. And even if the shutdown ends with Democrats caving on a continuing resolution without immediate concessions on the expiring Obamacare subsidies, some Democrats quietly believe they’ll still have accomplished something.
One House Democrat, granted anonymity to discuss the political dynamics, told MSNBC that just moving the conversation back to health care would be a win for Democrats.
“It’s the moral high ground, and it’s where we have a big polling edge, a real vulnerability for the GOP,” this Democratic lawmaker said.
While the lawmaker was clear that even a one-year extension of the Obamacare tax credits might not feel like a complete victory for some Democrats, they agreed that just focusing attention on exploding health care premiums and making Republicans own those increases would be a Democratic win.
Other Democrats were similarly candid about the political advantages.
Rep. Joseph Morelle, D-N.Y., warned Republicans that they should be “very, very thoughtful, because in the next several days, if they haven’t already, Americans are going to start getting their health insurance premium bills.”
They’ll remember that we fought for health care and that we cared.”
Sen. John Hickenlooper
“And when that happens,” Morelle said, “Republicans are going to have to answer.”
Morelle added that he would be “angry” if Democrats in the Senate ended up voting with Republicans to approve the GOP-crafted funding bill. And he dismissed the idea of securing commitments from President Donald Trump and Republicans to only talk further about health care after the government reopened.
“The only person who could fall for that would be Charlie Brown, because he continues to listen to Lucy about kicking the football,” Morelle said.
But Democrats seem to think that, whatever blowback they get for the shutdown, it’ll be outweighed by the benefits of trying to protect health care.
“A year from now,” Warren told Semafor, “people will remember Democrats fought to protect access to affordable health care while Republicans resisted it at every turn.”
It’s a message other Democrats are repeating.
Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo., also told Semafor that no Democrat wants a shutdown. It was an option of “last resort,” he said, once again suggesting that voters would ultimately care more about trying to lower insurance premiums than a shutdown.
“They’ll remember that we fought for health care and that we cared,” Hickenlooper said.
Republicans are betting the opposite.
GOP lawmakers believe they have the political high ground. Democrats have forced a shutdown, Republicans say, over something that’s not in the continuing resolution, rather than something that’s in the bill.
The GOP’s House-passed funding bill would keep the government operating until mid-November, and Democrats have shown little problem with the substance of that legislation — besides its not addressing those skyrocketing premiums.
House Speaker Mike Johnson’s position is that he and Republicans won’t negotiate on Obamacare subsidies until Democrats relent and pass the House’s continuing resolution.
“I quite literally have nothing to negotiate,” Johnson, R-La., said Thursday.
That position has left lawmakers with little to discuss. There were no votes Thursday, in observance of Yom Kippur, and though the Senate is expected to return Friday and once again vote on the Democratic and Republican versions of a funding bill, there seems to be little movement toward a resolution.
Discussions are at such an impasse that Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is now considering sending senators home for the weekend, rather than just subject lawmakers to more votes, as he had previously planned.
The Democrats who Republicans had hoped would bend are, so far, seeming inflexible.
In an appearance Thursday on Fox News, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire — one of the 10 Democrats who voted with Republicans on a GOP funding bill in March — leaned into the Obamacare dispute, trying to turn the table on Republicans by saying that “over 70% of people getting these subsidies are in states Trump won” in 2024.
At this point, both parties seem to think they have the upper hand in negotiations, and there’s little indication of a quick deal.