Over the weekend, The New York Times reported that Democratic donors are considering a $20 million “strategic plan” called “Speaking with American Men” that includes “study(ing) the syntax, language and content that gains attention and virality” in male “spaces.” The initiative is yet another example of Democrats trying to make sense of the 2024 election and, in particular, how they can win back male voters.
But polling data from the last four presidential elections suggests the root of their male voter problem — and the potential solution — might be rather straightforward: Support for Democrats among male voters dropped most dramatically when the party’s presidential candidate was a woman — and rebounded when the party nominated a man.
Declines were evident across every major demographic group.
At the outset, it’s important to note that there are significant caveats to this data. Four elections offer useful data, but it’s still a relatively small sample size. In addition, it’s impossible to say with certainty that the presence of a woman on the Democratic ticket sapped the party’s support in presidential elections. Some of the reasoning here is based on circumstantial evidence. Nonetheless, the numbers tell a sobering tale.
For example, last week, Catalist, a progressive organization that analyzes voter data, released its report entitled “What Happened in 2024,” and it’s clear that, across the board, Democrats lost ground with men. While women supported Kamala Harris at nearly the same levels that they supported Joe Biden in 2020, the share of men backing the Democratic ticket dropped from 48% in 2020 to 42% in 2024. In all, there was an 11-point shift from Democrats to Republicans. These declines were evident across every major demographic group.
For example, white and black women supported Biden and Harris at levels virtually unchanged from 2020, but there was a four-point drop among white men and a seven-point drop among Black men. Support for Democrats among Latino women fell by seven points, but among Latino men, the decline was 12 points.
Even more striking is the drop-off with younger voters. According to Catalist, “the gender gap among 18 to 29 year olds widened to 17 points as women dropped slightly from 66% Democratic support in 2020 to 63% in 2024 while men dropped much further from 55% Democratic support in 2020 to 46% in 2024.”
Again, these shifts took place across multiple demographic groups. Democrats lost one point of support with young Black women, but 10 points among young Black men. The party’s share of support among young Hispanic women fell by 8 points from 2020 to 2024, but 16 points among young Hispanic men.
The shift also held across college-educated voters — a group that in recent years has increasingly moved toward the Democratic Party. In 2020, Democrats won 54% of white college-age voters, but in 2024 that number slipped to 51%. However, nearly all of the decline was due to a six-point drop in support among college-educated men (versus just one point among college-educated women). A similar dynamic was evident among white non-college-educated voters. Harris matched Biden’s numbers with women in this group, but lost three points with men.
Female support for the Democratic ticket was constant throughout these four elections; only male support for Democrats fluctuated.
To be sure, there’s long been a gender gap in American politics, with women more inclined to vote Democratic than men. In 2024, Trump’s presidential campaign made it a priority to target men, particularly occasional male voters. And it’s worth noting that Democrats lost significant support with white college-educated men in the 2022 midterms (though they gained ground with white non-college-educated men). So perhaps the decline evident in the 2024 numbers is part of a larger electoral trend? Perhaps men were more aggrieved by the state of the economy in 2024? Perhaps they were more turned off by Democratic positions on cultural issues like abortion, trans rights, etc?
All this is possible, but there is one complicating factor: The decline in male support for the Democratic Party in 2024 looks a lot like what happened with male voters in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was the party nominee.
In 2012, when Barack Obama faced off against Mitt Romney, there was an 8-point gender gap, according to Catalist. In 2016, the gender gap increased to 12 points. In 2020, Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, it closed back to nine percentage points. And in 2024, it had increased to 13 points. By and large, female support for the Democratic ticket was constant throughout these four elections; only male support for Democrats fluctuated.
Again, this seesawing support is evident across virtually all demographic groups. Democratic support among white non-college-educated voters is perhaps the most striking example. The party’s support with white non-college-educated women has been nearly constant in every election since 2012. But among white non-college-educated men, there was a six-point drop from 2012 to 2016, a two-point increase in 2020, and then a three-point drop in 2024. A similar gender gap was also evident among college-educated men.
So over the last four elections, we see a similar pattern — Democrats lose support with men when there’s a woman on the ticket, and gain it back when they nominate a man.
The U.S. stands out as one of the handful of Western democracies that has never elected a female head of state.
Trump is undoubtedly a factor here as well. He’s long preached a traditional form of masculinity that undoubtedly appeals to a certain segment of American men. Conversely, Democrats have long been branded as the more feminine party, for their views on issues like trans rights, abortion and even social insurance programs. But then why did Trump’s support among male voters shift so dramatically in 2020? If it was the result of, say, his handling of the pandemic, why would such anger materialize so acutely among men?
It’s certainly possible that the Democrats’ problems with male voters will fade away when Trump is not on the ballot in 2028. And it bears noting that female representation in Congress has steadily increased since Trump first arrived on the national stage. In 2017, there were 105 female members of Congress. Today, that number stands at 151 (and that includes a substantial increase in female Republicans in Congress). However, the presidency is a vastly different office with significantly different responsibilities than a member of Congress. The U.S. stands out as one of the handful of Western democracies that has never elected a female head of state.
As uncomfortable as it might be to acknowledge, the Democrats’ problem with male voters might be solved with the simplest, albeit most reactionary of solutions. Nominate a man for president in 2028.
