It may be time to retire the idea of presidential coattails.
Like the long fabric in the back of a knee-length coat that it's named after, the idea that a popular presidential candidate will sweep other members of his party into office is no longer in fashion.
Republican candidates not named Donald Trump were already going to have to make their own case to voters this year. Now, in the wake of a disastrous debate performance last week, Democratic candidates not named Joe Biden are in the same boat.
While I don't believe any of the ideas of replacing Biden at the top of the ticket are likely, they are a possibility. But either way, Democratic candidates for House and Senate are going to have to stand on their own if they want to win.
Given the general unhappiness with both major-party nominees, it's likely that voter turnout across the board will be lower.
Given the general unhappiness with both major-party nominees, it's likely that voter turnout across the board will be lower than the historic voter participation in the 2020 election.
As I wrote back in March, presidential years are tougher for Republicans in blue states because turnout is so much higher than in midterm elections. In 2020, voter turnout in New York was 63%, compared with 43% in 2022.
While it is extremely likely that Biden would win New York in 2024, it should be noted that Republicans were able to flip six congressional seats in 2022 that Biden won in 2020. At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats were hoping they could rely on a similar turnout to 2020 to win them back in 2024.
However, with less enthusiasm for Biden, down-ballot Democrats will have to heavily rely on community issues and develop a stronger get-out-the-vote operation than typical — and one they probably aren't used to setting up.
National issues tend to dominate the news, but if Democrats hope to flip the House and have a chance of holding the Senate, they'd better focus locally and start shaking as many hands as they can from now until November.
