Since she catapulted to the top of the Democrats’ ticket last month, Vice President Kamala Harris has been quickly closing the gap with former President Donald Trump in polls. After President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, it was looking like Democrats would be routed. Harris has essentially made it a tied race again. The big question, though, is whether her campaign’s momentum can be sustained till November and, crucially, if it translates into votes in the states that will decide the election.
There’s reason for Democrats to be hopeful. A New York Times/Siena College poll released this week shows major gains from Harris in three key swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. According to the survey, Harris now leads Trump in those states by 4 percentage points — 50% to 46% — among likely voters. That is within the margin of error for all three states, but those numbers are significant given Biden’s deficit last month.
There’s reason for Democrats to be hopeful.
We’re seeing the same thing happen in three other swing states. In Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, Harris is either leading or tied with Trump, according to a survey released this week by The Cook Political Report. Things are also swinging Harris’ way in the national polls, according to an aggregate from FiveThirtyEight. A recent Substack article from Nate Silver highlighted how much of a shift this has been compared to last month, with Harris climbing almost 12 points in Arizona polls.
(For the record, NBC News hasn’t released a national survey since Biden dropped out, but in its most recent poll conducted in July, in a then-hypothetical question about what voters might do if Biden discontinued his campaign, Harris was running behind Trump, 47% to 45%, with a margin of error of 3.46%.)
It remains true that polls don’t tell the whole story and that there’s a risk in Democrats’ thinking that Harris has Trump cornered. Among those reportedly trying to tamp down the enthusiasm is Trump’s top pollster, Tony Fabrizio, as his boss has started to fret about Harris’ surge. “Mr. Fabrizio has predicted to campaign colleagues that Ms. Harris will have another two to three good weeks, through the Democratic National Convention, and then her poll numbers will turn in the other direction,” The New York Times reports.
There’s a solid bit of wisdom baked into Fabrizio’s claims that can’t be dismissed as pure cope. It’s been well documented that a post-convention polling bounce exists, one that often provides a greater benefit for the candidate whose party goes second. Notably, the effect has dwindled over the years, as polarization has hardened voters’ partisan preferences. And as with all things election-related, there’s plenty that can happen between the nomination and Election Day that could send polls spiraling topsy-turvy again.
But here’s the thing: We don’t have to take the most recent polling in isolation. Instead, we can compare the latest NYT/Siena results to a poll that the partners conducted last year, when Biden was still in the running and underwater in those key states. In October, Trump led Biden among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup by 5 points in Michigan and 6 points in Pennsylvania, while Biden had a 2-point advantage in Wisconsin.
When asked about whether they would support an unnamed Democratic candidate over Trump, things shifted. Trump lost that imaginary contest in each state: 48%-41% in Michigan, 50%-40% in Pennsylvania and 51% to 39% in Wisconsin. That tracked with more recent polling that found that Biden was running behind other Democrats before exiting the race, failing to catch up with Trump even as other candidates’ numbers showed the strength of the party’s messaging.
It wasn’t a given that Harris would find herself performing as well as or better than the generic Democrat voters were asked about in last year’s survey.
Biden supporters rightly noted then that it’s much easier to support a generic candidate than a real politician with actual positions and a record to critique. Importantly, though, the October NYT/Siena survey also polled respondents about a hypothetical matchup between Trump and Harris. At the time, Harris trailed Trump in those three states by 1 to 3 percentage points.
This direct comparison suggests a continuity at work here. It wasn’t a given that Harris would find herself performing as well as or better than the generic Democrat voters were asked about in last year’s survey. For her to have taken the lead among likely voters in those swing states demonstrates that there’s more at work here than mere relief that Biden is out. Her numbers also undercut the assumption that Harris is enjoying an unsustainable boost after replacing Biden. Instead, as NBC News recently reported, her campaign is doing the work to ensure that this surge in enthusiasm is being converted into a veritable army of volunteers.
The presidential race is still probably going to be a close one, in which a handful of states decide the victor. It’s much more likely to be a roller coaster between now and November. But there’s little reason to assume Harris’ current momentum owes to a “honeymoon” period that will wane long before the election, not when the polls showed so clearly that voters were seeking someone other than Biden to take on Trump.
