Three weeks from Wednesday, every eligible ballot in the 2024 presidential election will have been cast. Election officials will have worked long into the night across the country to tabulate millions of votes. By the morning of Nov. 6, we may finally have an answer to the question those of us who work in, or around, politics have received constantly for months: “Who’s going to win?”
It’s unfortunately the one question that nobody can answer with any certainty. There is no clear outcome in sight. There are no debates waiting ahead for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump to share a stage. And there are no major events to circle on the calendar before the polls open. There is only a seeming eternity ahead for a race that lacks any clear favorite. The uncertainty makes these few remaining weeks particularly maddening, amplifying the smallest potential shift as monumental while leaving little room for the race to be fundamentally altered.
It’s unfortunately the one question that nobody can answer with any certainty.
In the 1970s, Japanese engineer researcher Masahiro Moti noted that “in climbing toward the goal of making robots appear human, our affinity for them increases until we come to a valley, which I call the uncanny valley.” The things that rest in this valley can cause a feeling of deep unease, distress and dismay as our minds struggle to categorize something that comes close to, but falls short of, appearing human.I’ve come to see this October as the uncanny valley of the election cycle. Stuck between the dynamism of the summer and the surety of November, Americans scour for anything to break the tension. The elusive “October Surprise” has accordingly gone from an event that nobody could see coming to a quadrennial prediction that has more often fallen flat, as pundits and politicos hunt for something — anything — to shake up the race.
Unfortunately, the main balm that we all turn to in these moments isn’t as curative as we may want. The latest national poll from NBC News shows Harris and Trump in a “dead heat,” with 48% each from registered voters and a margin of error of ±3.1%. On the surface, that seems like a major problem when polling in September showed Harris with a 6-point lead over Trump and the same margin of error.In practice, though, the margin of error means those two poll results aren’t as far apart than they seem. Furthermore, these snapshots are our best guesses of how people within a pool of respondents feel right now, but they aren’t the predictors that people want them to be. The usefulness of frantically refreshing polling averages is roughly the same as staring into an empty teacup looking for a sign among the leaves.
Polls showing a stable race after Harris caught up, then passed Trump once President Joe Biden dropped out should be a comfort to Democrats. But panic is a tried-and-true part of Democratic identity, even when an electoral landslide is just around the corner. These final weeks are always a time of second-guessing, when the candidate’s every choice up to that point is re-adjudicated and every sign is a red flag of impending disaster.
Unlike the campaigns of her predecessors, Harris’ campaign has played out on a condensed timeline, and with that compression comes greater heat and intensity. And so a billion dollars raised since Harris jumped into the race transforms into a potentially worrying sign that donors might not provide needed cash in the final sprint. Decisions on where to spend time and what message to send while there, whom to sit with for interviews, how resources are distributed among allies all become fodder for speculation about why Harris may lose.
Harris’ campaign has played out on a condensed timeline, and with that compression comes greater heat and intensity.
The sheer amount of noise generated trying to make sense of everything becomes a problem in itself. We’re awash in a sea of opinions that are telling Harris she needs to change up her strategy in various contradictory ways before it’s too late. These last few weeks are just enough time to turn a ship as big as a presidential campaign, at least in theory, to focus on the One Big Thing that will secure a win. In an election this close, though, there are so many different variables to try to solve for that it can feel impossible to find a formula that denies Trump an electoral victory.The resulting calculus sees Harris’ campaign desperately trying to put together a coalition that can remain stable for the next 21 days. How do you both win back Black men who are open to Trump’s ham-fisted appeals while also being relatable to the Never Trump Republicans you’re wooing? How do you persuade progressives to turn out despite their hesitance over American support for Israel’s war in Gaza while also focusing on slowing inflation and driving down consumer prices?
I’ll let you in on a professional secret here: I don’t have an answer to those questions. Even the people doing the work of trying to win this election don’t know for sure. These next three weeks are set to be a period of distinct discomfort as we stare into the unknown. There is no quick fix that will calm the vibes and reassure nervous Democrats. Instead, the most powerful thing we can do with an uncomfortable feeling is to acknowledge its sources and work toward the changes we wish to see.
