It would be an extreme understatement to say that the first year of the House Republicans’ majority was not especially fruitful. Most of their time has been spent dealing with intraparty conflict, including, but not limited to, the overthrow of their first choice for speaker of the House. So it’s as unsurprising as it is fitting that Republicans are now grumpy about not having enough wins to run on in the fall, as NBC News reported on Monday.
As things stand, House Republicans’ list of achievements so far is short; those few successes generally fall into the category of “avoided a self-made catastrophe.” (See: preventing the country from defaulting on its debt.) That’s not because Democrats opposed working alongside their Republican colleagues. In fact, the minority party has searched for something, anything, that could win support in both parties, offering up real, tangible concessions on important issues. But Republicans, rather than capitalize on the opportunities that Democrats have teed up, insist on whiffing entirely.
Republicans, rather than capitalize on the opportunities that Democrats have teed up, insist on whiffing entirely.
A perfect example of this mismatch is the ongoing immigration negotiations taking place in the Senate. If Democrats had their way, Congress would simply pass the national security bill that President Joe Biden pitched, which would provide supplemental funding to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan while also allocate money for enhanced border security. But Republicans in both chambers demanded that the funding be linked to a broader immigration package and, well, here we are.
Senate negotiators are making some progress on that front, even though any potential deal would likely be a trade that doesn’t advance Democratic goals on immigration in the long term. But Biden has been getting hammered in the polls on border security, as cities struggle to provide support for an uptick in migrants since he took office. It’s clear that Biden’s team would rather risk dampening support among the liberal base than giving more ammunition to Republicans, prompting the White House to throw its support behind the talks. (It’s not the play I would make, given there are already concerns that Biden may struggle to turn out young Democrats in the fall. But this is why I’m not a campaign staffer.)
Despite this lopsided exchange in the GOP’s favor, House Republicans are skeptical about the negotiations. Politically, they worry that any bill that actually strengthens the border will blunt their inevitable attacks against Biden’s immigration policies in the fall. For that reason, former President Donald Trump has come out against the talks as a whole. Policywise, many Republicans are also skeptical of providing any funding for Ukraine, even when packaged alongside all of their other demands. Whatever bill could come out of the Senate definitely won’t be as draconian as the measures in HR2, the House’s preferred immigration bill. Any Republicans who vote for a border deal with Biden, no matter how favorable to the GOP, open themselves up to primary opponents’ attacks for caving. And many in the House GOP caucus still hope that a second term for Trump would yield a harsher bill, despite their more experienced Senate colleagues warning them to the contrary.
In addition to possibly tanking the best border deal the party could hope for, the House GOP’s record on spending bills is filled with even more own goals, as they struggle to come to terms with working inside a divided government. Twice, GOP speakers have agreed to top-line spending deals with Democrats. And twice, far-right conservatives have pressured the speaker to renege on those deals, demanding spending cuts far beyond what Biden or Senate Democrats are prepared to accept. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is withstanding the right’s pressure better than his predecessor so far, but there’s no telling how long it will be before the villagers pick up their pitchforks and torches again.
We’re currently on our third short-term spending bill, or continuing resolution, since September. While there’s been no government shutdown, there’s also been no real progress on getting bills passed for the full fiscal year. Several of the 12 annual appropriations bills have passed the full House, but were filled with conservative gimmes that Democrats can’t stomach. With no real appetite for rewriting those bills among Republicans, it is unclear how the situation will change by the latest deadline on March 1.
It’s a deep irony that those among the House GOP who are complaining the loudest about the lack of wins are the ones standing in the way of success.
There is one possible victory for both sides: A deal worked out between House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith, R-Mo., and Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden, D-Ore., would revive the expanded Child Tax Credit, which Democrats want, and extend pro-business tax credits that Republicans don’t want to expire. It’s a solid trade-off that would provide a much-needed win for supposedly pro-family Republicans as they campaign in the fall.
The bill got a major bipartisan boost out of the Ways and Means Committee last week, but that still doesn’t guarantee that it will pass the full House. As with immigration negotiations, some conservatives, like the Wall Street Journal editorial board, worry that it helps Biden and Democrats too much. And if the House GOP doesn’t scuttle it, there’s still a chance that some Republican senators block it from getting the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster without changes that would make already wary Democrats less likely to support the final product.
It’s a deep irony that those among the House GOP who are complaining the loudest about the lack of wins are the ones standing in the way of success. “We have nothing. In my opinion, we have nothing to go out there and campaign on,” Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., told the conservative network Newsmax, as NBC News reported, calling it “embarrassing.” Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, made headlines in November when he delivered a blistering assessment of the Republicans’ first year back in power, calling on his caucus to give him “one thing — one! — that I can go campaign on and say we did. One!”
But none of the items I described earlier would count as successes in either Roy's or Biggs’ books. There’s no purity in compromise, which has become a thing to be avoided at all costs in the modern GOP. What Roy and others want is total capitulation from Democrats in favor of everything that makes up the MAGA agenda. That’s just not happening when Republicans only control half of one branch of the elected federal government. If the House GOP makes it all the way until November with nothing for members in tough races to show for it, that’s something they can only blame on themselves.
