House Republicans on Tuesday selected Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., as their latest nominee to become speaker. It was a grueling process, as Emmer went through five rounds of voting, overcoming competition from seven of his colleagues, to finally become the new speaker-designate. That lasted about four hours before Emmer suddenly dropped out of the race, leaving the GOP back at square one.
Again.
Despite winning a majority of Republican votes Tuesday, Emmer rapidly became the latest would-be leader of the people’s House unable to scrape together enough support to win on the House floor. He joins Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Judiciary Committee chair Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, on the GOP’s discard pile, alongside former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. And it looks like that pile is due to grow, with nobody set to break the cycle that has been playing on loop for three weeks.
The final round of Tuesday’s voting came down to Emmer and Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., the vice chair of the GOP Conference. The final secret-ballot tally was followed up with a roll call vote of the caucus to see who would support Emmer on the House floor. The results weren’t encouraging for Emmer, as 26 Republicans voted either “present” or for someone else. That’s at least four times as many as the four to six votes he could afford to lose (assuming Democrats remained united against him).
Many of the holdouts were members of the far-right wing of the caucus. Ahead of Tuesday morning’s vote, Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., chair of the House Freedom Caucus, told reporters that he was “concerned” about Emmer’s voting record. That included votes in favor of the debt ceiling deal that McCarthy and President Joe Biden hammered out, the short-term funding bill that triggered McCarthy’s ouster and last year’s repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act. Emmer may have been able to survive all those sensible votes, except for one thing: He also (gasp!) voted to certify Biden’s win in the 2020 election.
As the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee that year, Emmer had an interest in declaring that the results of that year’s races were legitimate. (Also: The results of that year’s races were legitimate.) Moreover, let's not forget that Emmer still did his best to straddle the line, suggesting that some of the practices in the election were "questionable" while not embracing the most extreme of former President Donald Trump's lies. But that didn’t matter to Trump, who sent out a post on Truth Social on Tuesday afternoon completely shredding any chance that Emmer could survive a floor vote. Emmer knew the jig was up at that point, according to NBC News, leading to his stunning decision to relinquish his short-lived shot at becoming speaker.
With Emmer out, the process started all over again for the GOP — but this time at warp speed. This time around, hopefuls had roughly an hour to put in their applications for the speakership. They included several candidates who’d run earlier in the day, including Johnson and Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida. The latest round of the ongoing power struggle also put three new sacrificial lambs on the altar of chaos: Reps. Mark Green and Chuck Fleischmann of Tennessee and Roger Williams of Texas.
With Emmer out, the process started all over again for the GOP — but this time at warp speed.
A candidates forum among the six aspirants was scheduled to take place at 6 p.m., less than 24 hours after the last candidates forum had begun. Yet another series of secret ballots swiftly followed. After three rounds, Johnson had managed to become the fifth speaker-designee this year and the second of Tuesday. Next comes another showdown on the House floor at noon Wednesday. And then, all too likely, another total collapse of support once it becomes clear there’s no way forward.
I say that because there is no such thing as “just right” for this caucus. If, as in Emmer’s case, someone isn’t viewed as being properly devoted to Trump, he loses the support of the Freedom Caucus flank. If someone is that far to the right, like Jordan, he can’t count on the relative moderates from districts that Biden won — the ones who are responsible for the GOP’s narrow majority — to support him. And if Johnson could thread that needle, and there are still potential roadblocks in his way, the caucus’ factionalism and backstabbing might still prevent him from actually rising to the challenge. The one escape hatch that makes sense, empowering a temporary speaker with the help of Democratic votes, has already been deemed unacceptable, but it may get another look after this latest embarrassment.
For now, though, the House is stuck in neutral as time ticks away before another government shutdown. If the pattern holds, we’ll see Johnson make it to a floor vote before the bottom falls out for him. Then another candidate who maybe sticks around for even less time than Emmer. Then another candidate who fails to win the gavel and get the House working again. And on and on it will go until someone, anyone, in the GOP caucus either fully wins over his haters or has the courage to break the chain and reach across the aisle for help.
