The question wasn’t whether Iran would retaliate against the United States after President Donald Trump authorized airstrikes over the weekend against three Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan. The question was what that retaliation would look like.
The answer came Monday when Iran responded with a small, relatively restrained missile attack against the American-operated Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar that was more symbolic than threatening. The highly choreographed nature of the strike, which came only after Iran gave Qatar a heads-up about when the attack would occur and where it would send its missiles, can only be described as a concerted Iranian attempt to limit the damage to the absolute minimum. Trump seems to acknowledge what Tehran was up to, writing on Truth Social hours after the Iranian attack, “I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody was injured.”
I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody was injured.
president donald trump on truth social
If there was ever an opportunity to back away from the ledge and promote de-escalation between the United States and Iran, it is now. And Trump, to his credit, has done precisely that, announcing in a lengthy post on Truth Social on Monday afternoon that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran will be in full effect in 24 hours. By keeping its military action contained, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gifted Trump an off-ramp. Israel is already claiming Iran violated the ceasefire, which Iran denies. But assuming the ceasefire holds, there’s a chance of Washington and Tehran’s preventing further escalation of the situation and returning to the nuclear diplomacy the two began in April before Israel’s war against Iran cut it off.
Judging by what Tehran could have done, Iran’s barrage of 14 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles toward the largest U.S. military facility in the Middle East was at the low end of the escalation ladder. The Pentagon was clearly prepared for this eventuality; the United States moved some military assets, including aircraft, from vulnerable locations days earlier. Air defenses at major U.S. installations were kept on high alert.
The Trump administration back-channeled to the Iranians that any retaliation on Tehran’s part that killed Americans would result in an even more painful blow to its military’s capabilities. Trump delivered the same message in public hours after U.S. B-2 bombers dropped a succession of massive “bunker-buster” bombs onto Natanz and Fordo in the blustery, curt way only he can. “There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,” the president said Saturday night. “Remember, there are many targets left.”
The Iranians took Trump’s words to heart. Tehran’s reprisals could hardly be called strong, impressive or massive. That was by design. Conventionally speaking, the Iranian military is no match for the military of the United States or Israel, both of which have demonstrated over the past nine days that they can fly anywhere in Iranian airspace without having to worry too much about hostile fire. Tehran has the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, but the country has used up nearly half of its inventory in less than two weeks. Israel’s air campaign has struck so many Iranian military targets, from launchers and missile depots to soldiers and airports, that it’s difficult to tally. Israel’s tactical successes to date most likely contributed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to cease its attacks, most likely at Trump’s urging.
Iran, however, is a proud nation. Getting kicked in the mouth without a response was never an option. Khamenei’s nearly four-decade-long tenure over the Islamic Republic has been geared toward two objectives: opposing U.S. power and influence in the region when the opportunity arises and maintaining the longevity of its regime. The U.S. bombings over the weekend put him in a difficult position on both fronts. Do nothing and look weak in the face of the so-called American imperialists; do too much and risk an even bigger response from the U.S. military.
Fortunately, the Iranians found a way to thread the needle. The attack at Al-Udeid, the headquarters of U.S. Central Command in the Middle East, was meant to show the Iranian population that Tehran would indeed retaliate to what it regarded as an act of American aggression on its soil.
This isn’t the first time the Iranians have given the United States an easy way out; after the United States assassinated Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, Tehran sent a similar warning to the Iraqi government (which passed the message on to the Americans) about forthcoming Iranian retaliation. That warning, in addition to U.S. preparations, helped Washington limit the damage to injuries at the two U.S. military bases hit days later by Iranian ballistic missiles.
This isn’t the first time the Iranians have given the U.S. an easy way out.
This time, there weren’t even any American injuries to speak of. The Iranian missiles in Qatari airspace were shot down. The damage was minimal, if there was any damage at all. And the entire thing reeked of a theatrical performance with the Iranians writing the script.
Trump will be tempted to use the failed Iranian missile barrage to poke Khamenei in the eye. He’ll want to portray Tehran as a paper tiger afraid of U.S. military might and insist he — and he alone — scared off the mullahs from acting rashly. But surprisingly, he has been surprisingly magnanimous, thanking Iran for not only doing its part to suppress escalation dynamics but also agreeing to a ceasefire arrangement that will, if properly implemented, pave the way for a renewal of diplomacy.
Given everything that has occurred, the Iranians, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, are skeptical of additional nuclear negotiations with Washington at best and dismissive of them at worst. Even so, this doesn’t obscure the fact that diplomacy, not military force, is ultimately the only way the Iranian nuclear file can be closed in a sustainable, less risky fashion.
None of it will be easy, and the Trump administration will have to make tough concessions on enrichment if it hopes to seal an agreement. But the door would have been shut entirely if Trump didn’t take the very clear exit ramp now in front of him.