Former President Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, is embracing a “say yes to everything” media strategy. Since being picked by Trump, Vance has done nearly a hundred interviews, press gaggles and press conferences, Axios reports. He’s also spent a lot of time outside of friendly territory, going on several Sunday talk shows and talking to left-of-center media outlets. Trump reportedly believes Vance is doing wonderfully. The public: not so much.
The more Americans have gotten to know Vance, the more they’ve come to dislike him. When Trump named Vance as his running mate, the Ohio senator had a net favorability of -3.3% in 538.com’s polling average. But at that time, nearly half of Americans did not express a view. Since then, a lot more Americans have gotten to know him. The number of people who view him favorably has increased — but the number of people who view him unfavorably has increased at a faster pace. Vance’s average net favorability is now negative 10%.
With the press, and at rallies, Vance comes across as exactly the kind of politician that Trump sought out when he picked him: a MAGA warrior who obediently sticks to Trump’s script.
This stands in stark contrast to Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Americans hold a net favorable view of Walz of nearly 5%. That’s not as strong as he was around the moment Harris picked him, but his favorability has remained steady for weeks as he’s campaigned aggressively with Harris and released tons of videos on social media showcasing his personality. It’s also a pretty remarkable statistic at a time when most nationally known politicians are underwater on favorability.
In a civic sense, technically it is a good thing that Vance is eager to talk to media outlets outside of his own ideological bubble and to share his views of the world with citizens who may vote for or against him. But on a strategic level, it isn’t paying off for him. Part of the reason is that the Trump camp seems delusional about how Vance registers with the public. Vance’s team told Axios that his strategy is “trying to persuade the middle.” But with the press, and at rallies, Vance comes across as exactly the kind of politician that Trump sought out when he picked him: a MAGA warrior who obediently sticks to Trump’s script.
In interviews with the mainstream press, the newsiest moments typically revolve around Vance defending Trump’s or his own extreme and distasteful remarks. Vance has downplayed or dismissed criticism for comments he made in 2021 saying Harris was a childless cat lady. He has tried to act as a shield for Trump on questions over whether Trump would enact national restrictions on abortion, which then spurs the Biden campaign and reporters to bring to light Vance’s own extremist record on the issue. Vance has misogynistically likened Harris to a clueless Miss Teen USA contestant, and then refused to apologize for it. After Harris' campaign responded in a measured tone to Trump’s appalling exploitation of Arlington Cemetery for a campaign photo-op, Vance’s comms strategy was to tell Harris to “go to hell.” Vance’s emergence as Trump’s attack dog has prompted journalists and activists to dig up videos where he does things like criticizes women for daring to prioritize their career and question the value of child-rearing.
Vance isn’t particularly good at doing this stuff either. He auditioned for the role of Trump’s veep by positioning himself as a Trump mimic. Yet at the same time, Vance does a terrible Donald Trump impression, as my colleague Hayes Brown has discussed. Vance can follow Trump’s script, but he lacks Trump’s charisma, strategic vagueness and ability to entertain, which can cloak the nefariousness of Trump’s autocratic and white nationalist-leaning agenda. Vance’s swift plunge in net favorability is a reflection of what happens when a politician systematically adopts Trump’s unpopular and polarizing positions while lacking the ability to mystify the electorate about how serious he is about any of the off-the-wall things he says.
If Vance really wanted to have a chance of speaking to “the middle,” he might look to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who is fond of going on shows on Fox News and other conservative media shows to talk policy. Buttigieg is a relative moderate within the Democratic Party. He does not need to constantly play defense about dehumanizing or distasteful comments about his opponents. Instead he tries to calmly identify common ground, draw attention to data and push back against conservative myths about the Democratic Party.
Ultimately even if Vance had more charisma he would be trapped by his ticket. Trump chose him to be a loyal foot soldier, and he is fulfilling the assignment. Vance can try to help fire up the base and try to persuade swing voters that Trump is better for the economy, which is Trump’s entire electoral strategy. But he's going to make more enemies than friends doing it.
