As Election Day creeps closer, the tension is becoming more palpable. Pollsters are publishing their final surveys, millions are dropping their ballots in the mail and early in-person voting is beginning around the country. And there’s no more clarity on whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will prevail than there was two weeks ago.
As per the two parties’ usual demeanors, Republicans are blustering in public while stressing about Trump’s chances behind the scenes, while Democrats are simply stressed everywhere. But at least on paper, there’s good reason to be hopeful about Harris’ odds of victory. There are wide gaps across the board between the two campaigns, any of which could be the deciding factor next week.
There are wide gaps across the board between the two campaigns, any of which could be the deciding factor next week.
The most eye-catching advantage that Harris’ campaign holds is a massive war chest that’s rapidly built up since she took over as her party’s presumptive nominee in July. By early October, she had raised $1 billion between her campaign and a joint fundraising committee with the Democratic National Committee. And donors haven’t slowed the deluge of cash. In the first half of October alone, her campaign and affiliates reported to the Federal Election Commission that they’d raised another $147 million. In comparison, Trump’s network brought in $97 million during that same time.
Harris’ campaign is investing the money both in an advertising avalanche in battleground states and a gargantuan ground game. The Harris campaign has opened 50 offices in Pennsylvania alone, coordinating a massive get-out-the-vote operation. The same is true in Michigan, where her campaign is hoping to draw as many ‘Never Trump’ Republicans to the polls as possible. Trump’s campaign is struggling to match Democrats’ presence, having turned over most of its get-out-the-vote efforts to super PACs and other affiliated groups.
As for the candidates themselves, Trump may be benefiting from some voters’ hazy memories of his first term, but remarkably Harris has managed to wrest the title of “change candidate” from him in the eyes of many voters. That’s no mean feat when she’s the one currently serving in the administration under President Joe Biden. And Harris sought to remind voters just how chaotic Trump’s term was with her final major campaign address. Tuesday’s speech warning about the danger Trump poses was held on the Ellipse, the site of his speech Jan. 6, 2021, that inspired a mob to attack the Capitol.
Much of the campaign’s final days will be spent targeting the few remaining undecided voters, and one of the two candidates is better positioned to grow their support. The last national New York Times/Siena College poll found “about 15 percent of voters described themselves as not fully decided, and Ms. Harris is leading with that group, 42 percent to 32 percent.” It’s not clear how many of them will break for her but it’s still an encouraging sign. Furthermore, Harris’ favorability has rebounded since she entered the race. Though Trump’s popularity has increased as well since the first assassination attempt on him this summer, he is still decidedly unpopular. And his previous two presidential runs ended with roughly the same share of the popular vote, suggesting a clear ceiling of national support.
Harris also holds the advantage on one of the most motivating factors this election: abortion. The furious backlash to the overturning of Roe v. Wade drove Democrats’ overperformance in the 2022 midterms. There’s no sign that energy has dimmed in the last two years, particularly when numerous states this year have initiatives concerning abortion access on the ballot. Trump has tried to soften his rhetoric, only to boast about his Supreme Court nominees ending Roe.
Finally, even the economy has improved beyond what many would have predicted two years ago, with inflation falling back to pre-pandemic levels and interest rates falling. Harris is gaining on Trump in polls on that front, as well. And among demographic after demographic, the polls have been tightening in Harris’ favor.
With that nightmare still seared in every Democrat’s mind, the Harris camp won’t coast for the next week.
There are enough positive signs that, as The New York Times reported Monday, Harris aides are “growing cautiously optimistic” about the race. But the specter of 2016 still hovers over the election. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was ahead in the polls going into Election Day, had won her debates against Trump and seemingly held every possible edge against him. But that evening, it soon became clear that Trump would be able to claim victory, thanks in part to a surge of infrequent voters, a phenomenon his campaign is trying to replicate this time around.
With that nightmare still seared in every Democrat’s mind, the Harris camp won’t coast for the next week. There are still plenty of data points out there to give them the jitters. It truly seems like any little change in voter demographics, turnout or enthusiasm could swing things one way or the other.
Accordingly, Harris’ team has framed itself as the underdog for the entire time she’s been in the race. It’s a good mindset to have when things are this uncertain. Because while Harris has plenty of reasons to feel good about her odds on paper, it’s impossible not to worry that we could still see the whole thing go up in smoke.
