In multiple ways, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is a historic anomaly. She was the first and, so far, the only woman to serve as speaker of the House. She’s one of only a handful of speakers to have held the gavel again after having lost and reclaimed the majority. And though she’s no longer in leadership, the Democratic caucus has named her the House’s first “speaker emerita.”
It’s hard not to juxtapose her current place within the Democratic Party with Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s place among the Republican Party. He, too, is a former speaker, but one who served for a mere nine months, much less than the eight years total Pelosi held the gavel. McCarthy, R-Calif., was removed from the speakership in a dramatic vote last week, and he seems unlikely to regain it. In stark contrast to what we’ve seen from the Democrats, the modern GOP is unlikely to ever have an emeritus position — and, even in the unlikely event that it did, McCarthy is especially ill-suited to serve in such a role.
Since the current leadership structure was first formalized, the House has never had a situation like the present one, in which two former speakers still hold their seats in Congress as backbenchers. There’s a number of reasons for this. A sizable number of speakers died in office. Beyond that, many speakerships ended only when the speakers resigned from their seats or lost re-election.
The House has never had a situation like the present one, in which two former speakers still hold their seats in Congress as backbenchers.
Pelosi was already a rarity before this term began. After Republicans claimed the majority in 2011, she not only opted to stay on as a member of Congress but also retained her role atop the Democrats as minority leader. The closest precedent is Democrat Sam Rayburn of Texas and Republican Joseph Martin of Massachusetts, who traded places with each other from 1939 to 1963. Martin twice wrestled the gavel from the long-serving Democratic speaker and served as minority leader in the interims.
But Pelosi holds no formal traditional role in the current Congress. She passed the torch to Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and there’s been no sign of any kind of struggle between the two over the direction of the caucus. Instead, she has been helping ease the transition to a new leadership team after she and her cohorts had been in the party’s top positions since 2007. “It’s been wonderful for me to be able to consistently talk to Speaker Pelosi, lean on her for her advice, her thoughts, her guidance, her suggestions, her experience as the greatest speaker of all time,” Jeffries said at a news briefing in April. “The factual and historical record, in my view, makes that indisputable.”
Unlike Jeffries, McCarthy has had no such mentor in the Congress. The last four Republican speakers all either retired or resigned their seats rather than stick around. Only Wisconsin’s Paul Ryan served out the end of his term, but even he chose not to run for re-election in 2018. John Boehner of Ohio dipped out after fending off a challenge from the far right of his caucus. Illinois’ Dennis Hastert resigned from his seat after the Democrats reclaimed the majority in the 2006 midterms. (And then served time in prison after leaving office for paying hush money to boys he’d abused.) Newt Gingrich of Georgia also resigned from his seat in 1999. He took the heat for losing several Republican seats in the midterms after impeaching then-President Bill Clinton.
Except for Hastert, all those Republican speakers exited because of the pressures from inside their own caucus. For now, McCarthy has denied reports that he’s considering resigning. He has even hinted that he might be willing to reclaim the speakership if House Republicans can’t decide on a consensus and come groveling back to him. But the math is no more in his favor now than it was ahead of his being removed as speaker.
If he doesn’t regain the gavel but doesn’t resign his seat, it’s not at all clear what role McCarthy would play among House Republicans. He has been one of the top fundraisers for Republicans, one of the few skills he has in common with Pelosi. But that’s more likely to be seen as a liability than a boon to whoever succeeds him, as it offers him a rump base of power to control. Already his supporters are reportedly trying to kneecap his former deputy, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., as Scalise prepares to pitch his colleagues to vote for him to succeed McCarthy.
If he doesn’t regain the gavel but doesn’t resign his seat, it’s not at all clear what role McCarthy would play among House Republicans.
Whoever McCarthy’s successor is most likely won’t turn to McCarthy for advice on how to be speaker. Why, given the chaos that ran through the entirety of his term? Other backbench members might go to him for guidance on the leadership’s thinking, but that, too, would most likely be interpreted as a threat to the next speaker’s control, a rational fear given the frequency with of which House Republicans have knocked off their leaders. McCarthy has never stood for much of anything except his own advancement, so it’s not like he would be an asset for drafting legislation. Given his willingness to renege on agreements, he has also squandered any trust he had on both sides of the aisle, so he’s not going to be involved in hammering out deals.
There’s too much infighting and jockeying for power among House Republicans to allow for McCarthy to have any kind of positive role moving forward aside from maybe — maybe! — being a good representative for the people of Bakersfield, California.
Pelosi has gained an iconic status among Democrats that no House Republican leader will because none is likely to survive in Congress long enough to enjoy it. Pelosi is comfortable in her role as speaker emerita, but don’t expect a Republican speaker emeritus, not McCarthy or anybody else, to join her any time soon.
CLARIFICATION (Oct. 10, 2023, 12:00 p.m. ET): A previous version of this article mischaracterized the historic nature of the current situation in the House. After publication, the House Office of the Historian said that two former speakers served in the House several times before 1900, before the roles of majority and minority leader were formalized. The article has been updated.
