On Sunday night, Ron DeSantis gave Nikki Haley exactly what she has been asking for: a two-person race for the Republican presidential nomination. Eleven months ago, Haley was the first person to officially take on Donald Trump. And today she’s the last person standing.
Now the question is whether it will make a difference in New Hampshire, by motivating anti-Trump and unaffiliated voters. Or whether the 6 or 7% of DeSantis voters go to Trump and give the Trump campaign a double-digit victory, all but securing the Republican nomination for the former president.
By dropping out two days before the primary, and with a quick endorsement of Trump, DeSantis set the stage for two things.
DeSantis bet everything on Iowa, lost to Trump in a 30-point blowout and beat Haley by just two points. Hovering around a dismal 7% in New Hampshire, team DeSantis decided to blow off the Granite State and go straight to South Carolina. But there was no path to victory for the Florida governor; his funding was drying up, and most of all, he had his future to think about. With an eye on 2028, losing four key primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina) would be a lousy thing to have on his resume, so he suspended his campaign.
By dropping out two days before the primary, and with a quick endorsement of Trump, DeSantis set the stage for two things. First, he started the process of mending his relationship with the former president. Trump will probably stop calling him names and let up on the attacks, allowing DeSantis to reingratiate himself with Trump’s base, which will be important should he run in 2028. Second, he has potentially helped Trump finish with over 50%, as it is more likely that the majority of his slim 7% will support Trump over Haley.
As for Haley, she too could benefit from DeSantis’ exit. Traditionally, in New Hampshire there’s room for an event or moment to really shake things up and potentially lead to a surprise win. DeSantis dropping out could be that moment. It can set up a real battle between the Trump base and the anti-Trumpers now that there is a clear choice, and especially because of the outsized influence of unaffiliated voters on the New Hampshire primary.
Currently, Haley’s support is mostly comprised of independents, moderates and anti-Trump Republicans. However, most of that support is derived from the fact that she is not Trump — meaning voters aren’t as enthusiastic about her as they are about having a competent, viable candidate that can beat Trump.
But not being Trump is hardly enough to actually beat Trump on its own. Back in March, I wrote about the need for a Trump challenger to change the political landscape, especially in New Hampshire. Not only did no candidate heed that warning, the number of unaffiliated voters in the state actually fell by 10%, approximately 40,000 when compared to 2016. The universe of voters stayed the same, but Democrats picked up 33,000 registered voters and Republicans only increased by 7,000.
So far, only one state has cast ballots in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Today, New Hampshire primary voters will have a clear comparison between Haley and Trump. This nomination fight has just become a two-person race, and only recently has Haley started to take on Trump directly, most recently questioning his mental acuity.
Not being Trump is hardly enough to actually beat Trump on its own.
Anything can happen on election night in New Hampshire, and a win would certainly put some wind in her sails. Should Haley seek to continue, in order to be successful and raise money, she will have to move her critique of Trump into high gear.
When asked 11 months ago if she would go after Trump directly, Haley said, “I don’t kick sideways.” I still have no Idea what that means, but if Haley wants a real chance, she’ll have to kick sideways, backward and most importantly, directly at the former president.
